Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 210422

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1122 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Issued at 949 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Minor adjustments to hourly trends in sky/temps, otherwise
forecast is on track.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Minimal concerns over the next 24 hrs as quiet weather persists
over the northern plains. Will continue to see high thin veil of
clouds emanating from central plains severe and flooding activity
associated with 500mb closed low. As that system moves south
tomorrow, another day of light winds and temps a bit warmer with
fewer or thinner high clouds is expected. Temps near 90 in the
north and mid 80s south with a few upper 70s in lakes country
seems reasonable.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

A return to a wetter pattern will begin on Friday and persist
into early next week with scattered showers and thunderstorms

Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible heading into Friday
afternoon as a weak upper level impulse comes over the northern
Rockies and into the north central Plains. As this occurs troughing
along the lee side of the northern Rockies, along with a building
surface high in the south central Plains, will allow for weak
southerly flow to return to the region. However, the presence of the
surface high directly south of the region will inhibit rich moisture
return to the area. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance support
dewpoints reaching only the low 60s for Friday and through the
weekend. This limited moisture return will support MLCAPE values in
the 500 - 1500 J/kg range. The low to moderate instability
environment, along with weak broad ascent and low MLCIN, will allow
for a few thunderstorms across the area. However, the weak flow
throughout the column will not support a favorable shear environment
for organized severe convection. Instead, short-lived, airmass type
thunderstorms appear to be more likely.

This pattern continues through the weekend and into early next week
as a split flow pattern sets up over the central CONUS. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible with any mid or upper level shortwave
trough that propagates through the region.

Temperatures towards the end of the week and into the weekend are
expected to remain in the low to mid 80s with a slight cool down
through the middle of next week with day time highs in the upper
70s and low 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

VFR conditions should continue through the TAF period across
eastern ND and northwest MN. Surface high pressure persists
through the TAF period and will result in light and variable winds




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