Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
404 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

High presure has moved south of the area located in NW Iowa at
09z. Increasing south-southwest winds today and warmer air at the
925/850 mb layer will advect eastward with westerly winds in that
layer. Surface winds will tend to stay more south-southwest most
areas, though a bit more westerly component in higher terrain in
west of the Red River valley. Not all the warmth from 925 mb will
get to the surface today due to a colder layer near the surface
because of snow cover over NE ND and NW MN. But also looking at
full sun, though weak this time of year. Net result will be temps
this aftn in the lower to middle 30s snow areas to upper 30s/40 in
non-snow areas in SE ND/WC MN. Suspect the higher terrain areas
along the escarpment from Walhalla to west of Grand Forks will be
warmer than the immediate Red River valley.

Temps will not fall off a lot tonight, and going fcst of lows in
the 20s may not occur til later at night as 925 mb temps will
remain mild thru 06z. Some increase in cirrus or mid clouds
expected overnight, mainly NE ND/NW MN as a short wave moves
southeast thru S Manitoba overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

Satuday will see high temps above freezing once again with highs
in the 35-40 range. More cloud cover due to increased cirrus, but
winds will turn westerly which is a warm wind in the Red River

Northwest flow aloft prevails Sunday and Monday. Looking at a H5
shortwave moving through the region Sunday morning, with a clipper
later Sunday evening. The temperature profile Sunday afternoon
supports mixed precipitation types, with rain across portions of the
region to the south of Highway 200 and a mix of rain and snow to the
north. As the evening progresses, we will see the rain/snow line
move southward, with most areas seeing a chance for light snow
during the overnight hours. QPF during the Sunday/Monday period
remains light and significant accumulations are not expected.

A chance for light snow remains for the Lake of the Woods region
through much of the day on Tuesday. Winds aloft become westerly and
eventually southwesterly heading into Wednesday. A rather deep H5
low will be moving into the Pacific Northwest Wednesday evening,
progressing east and southeast as we head into Thursday. At this
point in the forecast, we see a higher degree of disagreement
between the various deterministic models and the beginnings of wider
variations in the ensemble forecasts. As such, confidence in
specific solutions remain low, however, there is a signal for more
active winter weather as this upper low influences the flow pattern.
An increased chance for snow enters the forecast late next week,
persisting into the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

IFR stratus and flurries will continue to shift southeast
overnight, clearing out of KBJI early this morning. Otherwise VFR
conditions are expected through Friday evening. Light south winds
overnight will increase during the morning, becoming sustained at
10-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts.




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