Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 241121

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
621 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with east to southeast winds to continue across
West Central Texas through the afternoon hours. A cold front will
begin to approach the area tonight, increasing the chance for
showers and thunderstorms mainly after 12Z Wednesday morning.
However, hi-res models do break out a cluster of storms near the
KABI terminal this evening ahead of the front, with confidence
growing in this scenario.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018/

(Today and Tonight)

Not much has changed in the forecast, with a quiet daytime period
followed by a more active night tonight. A hot day in store as low
level moisture continues to gradually increase across the area.
Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints climbing into the
50s. A cold front will make progress into the South Plains and begin
to interact with an air mass that is moderately unstable. Latest
HRRR and TTU WRF both show a cluster of showers and storms
developing just west of the area and then moving east across the
northern Concho Valley and most of the Big Country during the
evening hours, mainly north of a San Angelo to Brownwood line. More
showers and storms possible by sunrise as the cold front sags into
the area. Again, best chances across the Big Country through sunrise
Wednesday morning, with chances decreasing south towards I-10.

Temperature wise, north of the front, rain cooled air mass and a
colder air mass to start with will allow overnight lows to fall into
the 40s. South of the front across most of the remainder of the
area, lows in the mid and upper 50s will be common.

(Wednesday through Tuesday)

A series of cold fronts are expected over the next week or so.
This will help to keep rain chances in the forecast for a few days
along with cooler than normal temperatures. After the cold front
moves through bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms, as
mentioned in the short term discussion, most of the activity will
move across the Northwest Hill Country Wednesday afternoon. Then,
rain chances will subside until the next front moves through on
Thursday night and into Friday morning. Areas west of a Haskell
to San Saba line are most likely to see rainfall.

Afterwards, the forecast becomes much more uncertain with regards
to another possible disturbance moving in from the west during the
early part of next week. Models continue to show disagreement with
regards the positioning of the system. However, there remains some
possibility for additional rain chances beginning on Sunday
evening and also for the next day or two. Chances remain low as
uncertainty is still high.


Abilene  86  56  61  44 /  10  60  60  10
San Angelo  91  60  67  44 /   5  30  50  20
Junction  91  58  72  48 /   0  10  60  30
Brownwood  87  56  68  44 /   5  40  50  20
Sweetwater  89  52  57  44 /  10  60  50  10
Ozona       89  60  66  44 /   5  20  60  20




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