955
FXUS64 KFWD 100030
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
730 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday/

Our initial convection developed across the Big Country before
midday along an advancing cold front. The activity eventual split
into two factions, one remaining with the surface front while the
other skirted the Red River Valley along an aging elevated frontal
slope. Their separation increased as outflow from the north kept
the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex largely free of storms. The main
frontal surge through Central Texas will be the primary focus for
strong/severe storms this evening. However, the intensity of the
earlier Red River activity has been unable to preclude renewed
development as sunset approaches. The Central Texas storms within
the newest Severe Thunderstorm Watch will have better access to
the most unstable parcels, and these storms will have the greater
potential for large hail and damaging winds. But hail cores will
still be possible with the elevated cells further north into East
and Northeast Texas where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will
continue past nightfall.

Deeper northerly flow later this evening should spell an end to
the Red River activity, and the Central Texas storms will exit
with the advancing frontal boundary. The early morning hours will
be rain-free with noticeably cooler and drier air filtering into
the region. A much more pleasant day will follow on Friday with
below normal temperatures.

25

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 207 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024/
Update:
Not much has changed in regards to the extended portion of the
forecast. Pleasant weather is expected to start the weekend with
afternoon highs primarily in the mid to upper 70s. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms will begin across our west and southwest
Saturday evening/night increasing in coverage and spreading east
during the day Sunday and into Sunday night. The severe potential
is low on Sunday, but a few storms could produce some small hail.
Thunderstorm chances will continue into Monday primarily
along/east of I-35, exiting to the east by Monday night. Heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding will be possible in the
Sunday-Monday timeframe, especially across our already water-
logged areas in Central Texas and the Brazos Valley where there is
a 30-40% chance that rainfall totals exceed 2 inches during this
timeframe. We will likely see a break in the rain chances Tuesday-
Tuesday night before storm chances, potentially severe, return in
the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. See the discussion below for
more details.

Langfeld

Previous Discussion:
/Friday Night Onward/

North winds will drop to 5 to 10 MPH and veer to the northeast
Friday night as a surface ridge moves southeast through the Red
River Valley. The cooler and drier continental airmass (behind the
cold front currently moving slowly through the region) will
create low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s along the Red
River to the lower 60s across Central Texas. The surface ridge
axis will be practically on top of North and Central Texas on
Saturday while weak ridging is simultaneously in place aloft. The
result will be a nice Saturday with light winds and highs
generally in the 75 to 80 degree range. The only minor damper will
be thickening mid and high clouds and a slight chance of showers
across the far west associated with an upper low situated over
the southern Rockies.

Clouds and rain chances will continue to increase Saturday night
as the upstream low advances east. Showers and thunderstorms will
initially be confined to the west and southwest counties, but will
spread east/northeast across the rest of the region on Sunday as
the upper low draws near. With the surface front becoming
stationary along the Gulf Coast, convection will be elevated in
nature, which should mitigate the overall severe weather threat.
However, elevated instability may be sufficient at times to
support quarter sized hail in a few storms Sunday and Sunday
night. Locally heavy rain may also produce flooding in some areas.

Rain chances will continue mainly along and east of I-35 on Monday
as the upper low moves east through the Southern Plains.
Precipitation will end from west to east Monday night as the low
exits to the east and subsidence develops in its wake. Dry
conditions are then expected Tuesday through Tuesday night,
followed by additional chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday as
the next upper trough approaches. The surface front will have
lifted north by then, immersing all of the forecast area back
within the warm sector. The dryline may also come into play,
making Wednesday of next week look like our next (after today)
significant opportunity severe weather.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR for the Metroplex. Convection and MVFR ceilings for Waco.

Metroplex terminals should remain VFR with ongoing convection to
both the north and south. In addition to the north and south
departure corridors, the Cedar Creek arrival gate may have some
disruptions this evening.

The most intense convection has passed southeast of the Waco
terminal. VFR will return by nightfall, but MVFR ceilings will
arrive during the predawn hours. A deepening postfrontal layer
will push the deck south of Waco by mid-morning.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    62  81  62  78  62 /  20   0   0   5  30
Waco                63  79  62  76  63 /  50  10   5  10  30
Paris               62  79  56  80  60 /  20   0   0   0  10
Denton              59  79  58  78  60 /  20   0   0   5  30
McKinney            61  80  58  78  60 /  20   0   0   0  20
Dallas              62  81  62  79  63 /  20   0   0   5  20
Terrell             61  80  59  78  61 /  30   0   0   0  20
Corsicana           64  83  62  78  64 /  50   0   5   5  20
Temple              63  79  62  77  62 /  50  10   5  10  30
Mineral Wells       59  79  59  75  59 /  10   5   5  10  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$