Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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538 FXUS64 KFWD 082340 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 640 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 143 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024/ /Through Thursday night/ An active afternoon and evening is in store for portions of North and Central Texas as scattered storms are expected to develop ahead and along a dryline/cold front. At 1 pm, surface analysis show the cold front just to our northwest near Wichita Falls and the dryline ahead of the front farther east and southwest. These should continue to move eastward through the evening as the associated shortwave moves across the southern Plains. The combination of both boundaries and efficient surface heating should eventually break the cap resulting in the development of scattered storms. We are monitoring two areas for convective initialization over the next 2-4 hours. First: There is a 20% chance of isolated storms across western Central TX, closer to the dryline. Second: areas across the northeast closer to the cold front/dryline intersection should see storms develop around 5-6 pm. Latest high-res models are in fairly good agreement that storms will develop south like a zipper along the boundary through the evening. Areas generally near/east of I-35W and north of I-20 still have the best chance to see storms and severe weather. Given a highly unstable environment with steep lapse rates and 70s dewpoints (resulting in 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE), very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats. There is a potential for the hail to exceed 3 inches in diameter in some areas. While the tornado threat is lower over our area due to slightly weaker low-level shear and veered flow, boundaries can interact with each other and increase this threat. Most of the activity should be east and outside of our area between midnight and 2 am, but cloudy and patchy fog conditions are anticipated for areas south of I-20 as the front becomes nearly stationary. Thursday`s storm chances will be highly dependent on where the surface boundary settles overnight. However, most of the high-res guidance is showing the potential for scattered storms pretty much anywhere across North and Central Texas in the afternoon and evening. Due to uncertainty on exactly when and where storms will develop, PoPs have been capped to 30-40%. Like today, ingredients will be present for severe storms. Furthermore, forecast instability appears to be even higher which may increase the coverage and threat for very large hail and damaging winds. Forecast details will continue to be adjusted as new data arrives. Otherwise, a very warm afternoon is expected today with many locations reaching low/mid 90s. For tomorrow, the clouds and rain may keep daytime highs ranging from the upper 70s and low 80s in North Texas and up to upper 80s in Central Texas. Sanchez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 210 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024/ /Friday and Beyond/ As surface high pressure settles over North and Central Texas behind the Thursday cold front, drier and cooler air will usher in a pleasant start to the weekend. Expect afternoon highs in the 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the mid-50s to mid-60s both Friday and Saturday. As the surface ridge shifts east toward the SE CONUS Gulf Coast, east-northeasterly winds will veer more southeasterly by the latter half of the weekend beginning a period of gradual moisture return. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may return to our western Central Texas and Big Country counties as soon as late Saturday evening as isentropic ascent increases ahead of an approaching mid-/upper-level low. More widespread rain chances are expected Sunday as the aforementioned upper low shifts toward the Southern Plains region. With little to no surface-based instability present, thunderstorms will likely remain elevated through Sunday and offer primarily a small hail and heavy rain threat. The severe weather threat may ramp up some as we shift into Monday. Medium-range guidance suggests the upper trough will shift over Oklahoma/Kansas helping send a northwest-southeast moving cold front through our forecast area Monday. Upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints and steepening mid-level lapse rates will increase instability over the warm sector. Deep layer shear does look sufficient for organized storm structures capable of producing hail and damaging wind gusts, so make sure to keep up with the forecast through the weekend as we further refine timing and location details. More so, the threat for localized flash flooding may increase in the Sunday-Monday timeframe with latest guidance highlighting a 30-40% chance that already water-logged locations across portions of Central Texas and the Brazos Valley could see an additional 2+" of rainfall during this timeframe. Beyond Monday, uncertainty in the evolution of the synoptic pattern increases. However, it does appear that the subtropical jet will remain active over the Southern Plains well into the extended period. And with sufficient moisture remaining in place (dependent on the Monday system), that is enough to carry at least low end rain chances through the middle of next week. Langfeld && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/ The weak surface boundary or cold front was current draped along a line from KGYI, to KFTW/KAFW, to between KSEP/KMWL as evidenced by a WNW wind shift near 10 kts with the weak FROPA while S/SE winds 10-13 kts remain further east. Isolated TSRA were now going up from in the soupy airmass with 70F+ dew pints from KF00/KPRX...SW to KTKI and toward KDFW/KDAL attm. Any VCTS/TSRA impacts should shift S-E of D10 airports with mainly impacts to arrivals/departures occurring from the Bonham cornerpost, EBND air traffic, through the Cedar Creek cornerpost to the SBND traffic, though majority of TSRA impacts should remain just E of the SBND flow. After 09z and especially 11z-12z/through 15z, low MVFR/IFR cigs will impact all airports, with Waco Regional Airport actually seeing near calm winds near the stalling boundary and potential for IFR-LIFR vsbys in BR/FG between 09z and almost 18z, before improving. NE winds 5-8 kts will occur just behind the weak front with TSRA re-firing near this boundary by/after 18z with NE-E winds 8-15 kts with a few higher gusts possible at all airports. Coverage will be higher as will impacts at DFW/DAL airports through/past 00z Friday, with improvement occurring after 03z Friday. 05/Marty && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 82 63 80 62 / 30 50 20 0 5 Waco 75 87 63 77 61 / 20 50 20 5 5 Paris 66 83 60 79 56 / 60 40 30 0 0 Denton 65 82 60 79 58 / 10 40 20 0 5 McKinney 66 82 61 79 58 / 30 50 20 0 5 Dallas 70 84 63 80 61 / 30 50 20 0 5 Terrell 68 85 62 79 58 / 40 50 30 0 5 Corsicana 73 85 63 81 61 / 20 50 30 0 5 Temple 75 87 64 79 61 / 20 50 20 5 5 Mineral Wells 66 81 60 80 58 / 5 40 20 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$