Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 261028
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
528 AM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
No major changes were made with this morning`s update, outside of
adding a mention of patchy fog across our southernmost counties
for the next few hours. Light winds will continue to allow patchy
fog to develop early this morning, particularly in low-lying
areas. However, this should be short-lived as wind speeds will
increase within the next few hours. Otherwise, the previous
forecast remains in good shape. See discussion below for forecast
details.

Barnes

Previous Discussion:
/Through Tuesday Night/

A period of active weather is expected to unfold less than 24
hours from now, along with a threat for severe weather. Until
then, the weather will remain quiet, but warm and breezy, as a
potent system approaches the area.

As moisture is pulled into North and Central Texas by a
strengthening low level jet tonight, skies will become mostly
cloudy near sunrise this morning. A tightening surface pressure
gradient will result in a breezy day today, with wind speeds near
15 to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. One final abnormally warm day
is expected today with highs reaching into the 80s to low 90s.

By this afternoon, a dryline is expected to develop west of the
area. Simultaneously, large scale ascent will overspread West
Texas with the arrival of a potent mid-level trough. The
combination of these features should result in the development of
convection late this afternoon. It`s likely discrete supercells
will be the initial convective mode; however, upscale growth
should result in a line of storms developing within a few hours
of storm initiation. This line of storms will likely breach our
western border near sunset this evening, and will continue moving
east through the overnight hours. Damaging winds will be the
primary hazard with the line of storms. Isolated tornadoes may be
possible in any north-south bowing segments of the line; however,
shear vectors won`t be particularly favorable for QLCS tornadoes.
Nonetheless, be sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings
before you go to bed tonight. Additionally, hail may also be
possible, but the linear structure of the storms will keep the
potential rather low. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into
Wednesday morning, with most of the activity east of I-35 by
sunrise.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 352 AM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021/
/Wednesday Through Next Monday/

The vigorous mid-level shortwave and associated strong fall cold
front will be progressing across areas from I-35 and into East
Texas during the morning hours on Wednesday. This is a very
dynamic mid-level trough that will be negatively tilting
northeast toward the Ozarks and Mid-Lower Mississippi Valley
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Though the overall coverage of
severe weather will be dissipating this time of day with less
instability both at the surface and aloft, impressive
southwesterly deep layer shear 45-50 kts will maintain the
potential for a few severe storms through mid morning. A localized
threat for damaging winds and possibly an isolated tornado will
be the primary hazards, along with mainly small hail as steeper
mid level lapse rates exit to the east and northeast of North-
Central Texas. The highest PoPs will be east of I-35/35W, with a
tight gradient of lowering along and just immediately west of
these corridors thanks to lingering elevated moisture and
continued ascent aloft. The cold front exits the area just before
midday with convective rain chances ending quickly by afternoon.
The intense pressure gradient will result in mostly sunny and
windy conditions as the afternoon progresses Wednesday, though the
stronger low level cold advection lags a few hours in wake of the
cold front. The coolest areas will be in western North and
Central Texas where highs should reach the lower to mid 70s with
more hours of sunshine and associated insolation. Highs further
east will warm to between 75 and 80 degrees.

The end of the week will definitely feel like it should and more
Fall-like as we approach Halloween, or for some, Fall Harvest. The
very deep and slow-moving cyclonic flow aloft from the Southern
Plains to the Mississippi Valley will keep the cool airmass
reinforced over the area, as well as very windy through Friday.
Overnight lows in the mid 40s and 50s will only warm to between
50s and lower 70s, despite the plentiful sunshine sans some
periodic instances of scattered mid to high clouds over the
northeast half of the CWA from passing shortwaves rotating
southeast through the back side of the upper low. Lastly, but
most importantly, will be the very windy conditions, especially
during the diurnal hours thanks momentum transfer of deep,
unidirectional northwest flow up through 850mb. North or northwest
winds 15-20 mph at night, will become 20-25 mph with gusts up to,
or possibly in excess of 40 mph during the day both Thursday into
midday Friday. It is likely Wind Advisories will be forthcoming
and couldn`t rule out a High Wind Warning for some parts of the
area on Thursday afternoon. Gusty crosswinds on area
highways/interstates will make for dangerous travel for high-
profile vehicles, as well as very choppy open waters on area
lakes. Prepare now by securing loose objects outside such as
smaller potted plants, trash cans, lawn or patio chairs and the
like.

The broad, deep, and vigorous upper low over the Eastern CONUS
will gradually pull far enough away this weekend and will be
replaced by a broad shortwave ridge. Look for the winds to settle
down, as the expansive surface ridge axis across the Heartland
finally slides east of the area. It`ll still be nice for trick or
treaters and those wanting to be outdoors, as humidity will remain
low with southerly breezes returning and high temperatures
moderating back into the upper 70s and 80s by Sunday. Meanwhile,
low temperatures will continue to cool readily into the 40s to mid
50s with decoupling of the dry airmass and mostly clear skies.
Temperatures continue to moderate some into Monday, though any low
level moisture return will be modified Gulf air thanks to the
strong late week system scouring the more moisture-rich air off
the immediate Texas/Mexico Coasts. Still, increasing southerly
winds will bring dew pts slowly up as the ridge breaks down and
begins to become more zonal, or even southwesterly over the state.
Highs will remain in the 70s north and lower 80s south, though
with a slight increase in humidity. Low rain chances return next
week with the arrival of another cold front and periodic impulses
moving across the area. However, relatively stable low to mid
levels should keep PoPs low with no severe weather expected. Fall
is about to return, folks...maybe for good this time!

05/Marty

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

MVFR/IFR ceilings are currently making their way northward through
Central Texas. Expect this trend to continue into North Texas,
with MVFR cigs beginning at D10 terminals near 12-13Z. VFR should
return by midday, but we`ll have to contend with breezy southerly
winds for the remainder of the afternoon. Wind speeds will be
between 15 and 20 knots with occasional gusts exceeding 25 knots.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will be approaching the area
from the west this evening. Convection ahead of the main line of
showers and thunderstorms may begin as early as 5-6Z tonight. The
main line (and most intense part) of the storms should make its
way through all TAF sites between 8-10Z. Strong, erratic
convective winds will be possible with these storms.

Convection should be east of all TAF sites by 14-15Z Wednesday
morning, with skies clearing behind the line storms as a cold
front pushes through the area. Northwesterly winds near 15 to 20
knots are expected behind the front, with gusts near 30 knots
possible.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    87  66  76  56  71 /   5 100  50   0   0
Waco                86  65  76  54  73 /   5 100  40   0   0
Paris               82  63  74  53  66 /   5  90  90  10  10
Denton              87  63  74  52  71 /   5 100  40   5   0
McKinney            86  63  75  53  70 /   5 100  70   5   5
Dallas              87  66  77  57  72 /   5 100  60   0   0
Terrell             88  63  76  53  70 /  10 100  80   0   5
Corsicana           86  65  76  54  71 /   5 100  80   0   0
Temple              86  64  77  51  74 /   5 100  40   0   0
Mineral Wells       86  59  73  50  71 /   0 100  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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