032
FXUS64 KFWD 241924
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
224 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

...New Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are expected all week with highs
  ranging from the mid 70s to low 90s.

- Widespread rain chances return mid to late week, with the
  highest potential late Thursday and Friday.

- Average rainfall totals through the week range from 1 to 3
  inches with isolated higher amounts near 4 inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/
/Rest of today through Tuesday night/

A quiet but warm afternoon is in store for us with plenty of
sunshine as light southerly winds. Despite the low RH values (10-
20%) across the far western zones, winds will remain below 10 mph
limiting the fire spread and aid in containment. With the return
of south flow in the lower levels, moisture will slowly begin to
spread northward resulting in a warming trend over the next
several days.

Tuesday still looks to be the warmest day of the week with
temperatures 10-20 degrees above average for late March. Many
locations will see highs in the low 90s with plenty of sunshine
and light winds. Some locations like Waco (KACT) will be close to
tying or breaking the record temperature for the day (91 deg in
1928).

Dry weather will also prevail most of the day as a weak surface
front settles near our area in the afternoon and evening. However,
this may provide enough punch for an isolated storm or two in the
late afternoon hours, though the probability at this time remains
low (<15%). IF storms develop they could pose a threat of
marginally severe hail and/or strong winds. Another limiting
factor will be lack of strong ascent in the mid-upper levels.
This is still expected to arrive late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning where rain/storm chances increase for North Texas. More
details below.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 138 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/
/Wednesday through the Weekend/

Main story of the long-term forecast continues to be the return
of widespread rain/storm chances Thursday and Friday followed by
another cold front late in the weekend.

Wednesday: Scattered showers and storms will develop behind the
surface boundary in southern Oklahoma and move into North Texas
(generally north of I-20) during the early morning hours. Recent
guidance continues to show sufficient instability and shear for a
few elevated strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds mainly
along the Red River to the northeast. This activity is expected
to continue through the day, but most of it should be outside of
our area by the late afternoon or evening hours.

Thursday-Friday: A more active pattern will take place during
this time as a series of disturbances move across the state.
We`re still looking at increasing rain chances region-wide on
Thursday with the highest coverage late Thursday into Friday.
While flash flooding is not expected at this time, pockets of
moderate to heavy rain may result in some minor flooding
especially in those areas that receive multiple rounds. Rainfall
totals are still averaging between 1-2 inches with isolated higher
amounts near 3 inches (10% coverage). Otherwise, severe weather
is not expected with this round. Rain chances will decrease Friday
night as the activity moves east.

Saturday-Sunday: One last round of scattered showers and storms
may develop late Saturday or Sunday as a stronger mid-level
system sends a cold front southward into our area. Confidence in
coverage of precipitation is low, so for now we will keep the
rain chances around 20% for areas east of I-35.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/
/18Z TAFs/

No significant aviation concerns are expected for this period with
VFR and passing high clouds. Winds will generally remain from the
south less than 10kts. Looking ahead, rain and storm chances will
increase after 00Z Wednesday and continue through the next several
days.

Sanchez

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    58  90  61  80  61 /   0  10  20  30  10
Waco                55  90  61  85  61 /   0  10   5  10  10
Paris               51  86  57  72  55 /   0   5  40  30   5
Denton              52  88  57  78  57 /   0  10  30  40  10
McKinney            54  87  57  77  57 /   0   5  30  40  10
Dallas              58  90  61  80  61 /   0  10  20  30  10
Terrell             54  87  59  78  58 /   0   5  20  30  10
Corsicana           57  90  62  82  61 /   0   5  10  20  10
Temple              57  92  60  85  61 /   0   5   0   5  20
Mineral Wells       54  92  59  84  58 /   0  10  20  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$