Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 211046
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
546 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No significant changes to the forecast through Thursday. Low
clouds continue to spread north this morning across the region but
should scatter out by midday resulting in a mostly sunny and warm
day. Highs will top out in the upper 80s both today and Thursday.
Some patchy fog has developed across parts of our southeastern
counties this morning and similar to the low clouds, this should
dissipate by late morning.

Dunn

&&

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Thursday/

North Texas is removed from the stronger westerlies aloft at this
time with only a weak mid level disturbance meandering near the TX
coast. Other than some passing mid level clouds, no precipitation
is occurring with this disturbance. A modest 35 kt low level jet
has developed this evening and this will continue to draw low
level moisture northward overnight. We should see an increase in
low cloud cover spreading north from the Hill Country overnight.
These clouds will scatter during the late morning hours with
mostly sunny skies prevailing on Wednesday and highs in the
mid/upper 80s.

Low level southerly winds will increase this afternoon as a
deepening surface cyclone takes shape across eastern Colorado.
This system will continue to deepen and begin to move east into
the Plains on Thursday ahead of our next cold front. After another
round of morning clouds, another warm day is expected on Thursday
with highs in the upper 80s and continued breezy southerly winds.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 318 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020/
/Thursday night through Next Tuesday/

Southerly winds and quiet weather will prevail through most of
the night on Thursday. The first of the two upcoming cold fronts
is expected to approach our doorstep late Thursday night into
Friday morning. Latest guidance appears to be in good agreement
with the timing of the front moving across our northwestern
counties early Friday morning. Precipitation chances will increase
during the day as the front moves across North and Central TX.
The best chances will be during the morning hours, mainly north of
I-20 and east of the I-35 corridor. A few storms will be
possible, but the coverage will remain isolated/scattered.
Temperatures will decrease during day with breezy north winds
behind the front. Some locations across the northwest will likely
stay in the 50s on Friday. Cool, cloudy and mostly dry conditions
are expected Friday night with overnight lows ranging from the mid
40s across the northwest to mid 50s across the southeast. The
nice fall-like temperatures will continue on Saturday with highs
in the 60s and 70s, but we will quickly go back to the upper 70s
and 80s on Sunday ahead of the next system.

There`s still plenty of uncertainty on the upper-level trough and
associated cold front early next week. While both the GFS and
ECMWF favor the longwave troughing over the Rockies and into the
Plains, their solutions diverge on the evolution and progression
of a possible closed upper low early to mid next week. This will
continue to impact the ensemble guidance which will result in a
large spread in temperatures. Don`t be surprised if you see big
changes on the temperature forecast as we get close to this time
period. We will continue to monitor the trends and will make
adjustments as needed.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

MVFR cigs have spread north into the Metroplex over the last hour
with heights right around 1000 ft. These should persist for
another few hours before scattering out late morning with VFR
expected through the remainder of the day. Southerly winds around
10 kt with gusts around 15 kt will be common through tonight.

IFR cigs/vis are occurring mainly east of I-35 this morning, but
should also improve by late morning.

Another round of MVFR cigs will be possible later tonight into
Thursday morning, but at this time it appears the better surge of
moisture may be to the west and southwest of the major airports.
We`ll keep things VFR for now and continue to monitor.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    86  67  87  66  70 /   0   0   0   5  40
Waco                87  67  87  68  78 /   0   0   5   0  20
Paris               85  64  86  65  72 /   0   0   0   5  40
Denton              85  64  86  62  70 /   0   0   0  10  40
McKinney            85  65  86  65  70 /   0   0   0   5  40
Dallas              87  69  87  68  72 /   0   0   0   5  30
Terrell             86  64  87  65  73 /   0   0   0   5  30
Corsicana           87  67  87  68  77 /   0   0   5   0  20
Temple              87  66  86  67  78 /   5   0   0   0  10
Mineral Wells       86  65  87  61  67 /   0   0   0   5  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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