411
FXUS64 KFWD 142337
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
537 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A gradual warming trend will occur through the workweek with
  above normal temperatures returning by Thursday.

- Low rain chances will return to parts of Central Texas on
  Wednesday, with slightly better chances across East Texas
  through Friday.

- Very cold, Arctic air will arrive behind a cold front this
  weekend. It will be cold through at least the middle of next
  week. Low temperatures will likely be in the teens and 20s with
  afternoon highs only in the 20s and 30s for many areas Sunday
  and Monday.

- We continue to monitor the potential for winter weather. Latest
  guidance is slightly more favorable for wintry precipitation,
  but there is still significant uncertainty in how much moisture
  will return ahead of this system.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Afternoon/

Another seasonably chilly night is in store for all of North and
Central Texas this evening, with overnight lows in the 30s and
40s. A subtle cold front associated with large scale troughing
across a good portion of the CONUS will push through overnight,
though this will be barely noticeable as winds remain generally
below 5 mph. Low level moisture will try to push in some lower
clouds across our far southern counties across Central Texas ahead
of the front into Wednesday morning. Much drier air remains just
at the surface however, so rain chances are quite low. There may
be some morning virga associated with this low level moisture
aloft, but it will be very hard for any rain to reach the ground.

Otherwise, expect generally sunny skies with afternoon highs on
Wednesday afternoon in the low to mid 50s across the region.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 234 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/
Update:
No significant changes have been made to the forecast since the
overnight update. Latest guidance continues to trend slightly
colder behind the weekend cold front, with high temperatures in
the 20s/30s for most locations Sunday and Monday and dangerous
overnight lows in the teens and 20s. It won`t take much wind to
drop wind chills into the single digits for some areas. Start
preparing for the dangerous cold now!

We continue to monitor the potential for winter weather early next
week. Latest ensemble guidance is leaning slightly more in favor
of a wet forecast than dry, but there is still significant
uncertainty in whether moisture return will be sufficient ahead of
the early week system. The potential is currently more favorable
in Central Texas, with most members keying in on the Monday night-
Tuesday timeframe. Most of this time period is just outside of
the current forecast period, so no winter precipitation has been
advertised at this time. However, we`ll continue to reassess with
the evening/overnight data as we get within range of this time
period tonight.

Barnes

Previous Discussion:
/Wednesday Night Onward/

Light north winds behind a weak front will back to the west
Wednesday night, but may at times be calm to light and variable as
low level flow decouples. With clear skies and dry air in place,
radiative cooling conditions will be close to ideal, dropping
temperatures into the upper 20s to mid 30s by daybreak Thursday.
The cooler side of guidance (slightly below the NBM numbers) was
used with this forecast package for low temperatures.

A warming trend will take place Thursday and Friday as a mid
level ridge strengthens overhead. Temperatures will go from near
normal to 5 to 10 degrees above normal by Friday. The warmth will
be short-lived, however, as disturbances in both the northern and
southern branches of a split flow regime will usher in the next
arctic front Friday night or Saturday. A quick batch of rain
showers may accompany the front, but rainfall totals will be
light. Highs will peak in the 40s and 50s on Saturday before
dropping into the 20s Saturday night. Gusty north winds will drop
wind chills into the teens to single digits by daybreak Sunday.

A cold Sunday with highs in the 30s will be followed by another
dangerously cold night, with Sunday night/Monday morning lows
dropping mainly into the 15 to 20 degree range. Preparations for
exposed pipes, pets and vulnerable communities should be done
sometime this week before the arctic airmass arrives. Winter
precipitation does not appear likely based on the latest guidance,
but we will need to keep an eye on model trends (specifically
available moisture) though the week. In either case, the bitter
cold will likely continue into the middle part of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Concerns...Subtle northerly FROPA overnight ~08z, light winds.

VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the
entire period. SCT to BKN high clouds will continue streaming
overhead through the overnight period into the early morning. Some
lower ceilings will try to creep north toward Waco through the
morning as well, but these will generally remain between 5-8kft. A
subtle cold front will push through tonight ahead of these
clouds, with winds generally remaining below 5 knots even with
the front. Sunny skies and light winds can be expected tomorrow.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    33  55  34  63  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                36  57  34  63  42 /   0   5   0   0   0
Paris               29  52  29  57  37 /   0   5   0   0   0
Denton              29  54  29  62  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            30  55  31  60  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              34  56  34  63  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             32  56  31  62  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           34  58  34  64  43 /   0   5   0   0   0
Temple              35  56  33  64  42 /   5   5   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       30  57  31  64  39 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$