Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 240007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
607 PM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Issued at 602 PM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Updated to remove expired winter weather advisory headlines.
Scattered thunderstorm activity is continuing around the region
resulting in brief periods of heavy rain with periods of snow at
the higher elevations when they pass. Roads remain wet at this
time where showers are falling resulting in little impact.
Elsewhere, roads are dry with sun breaking out. Not expecting much
additional accumulation as convection is expected to wind down
with sunset leaving some light lingering showers until they end
this evening. The only area that might have some impact is Vail
Pass with a passing shower right now. However, expecting impacts
from this shower to be brief as it is almost out of the region.
Therefore, elected to let the winter weather advisories expire at
6 pm.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 312 PM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

The front has moved through the region this afternoon, so showers
will be dissipating west to east through the evening hours.
Models have some lingering snow showers until midnight for the
central mountains. Overnight lows tonight will be slightly cooler
as skies clear, but will remain unseasonably warm. Skies will
remain mostly clear through early tomorrow afternoon allowing for
daytime high temperatures to climb a few degrees higher than
today. Clouds will be on the increase again starting in the late
afternoon tomorrow ahead of a slowly digging trough across Nevada
and western Utah. This system may produce isolated to scattered
light snow showers across the eastern Uinta mountains and
southeastern San Juans starting starting tomorrow evening. The
increase in cloud cover will keep overnight temperatures warm
Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching upper level trough will
keep temperatures warm Sunday and also somewhat breezy as the
pressure gradient tightens. A few showers are possible Sunday
afternoon and increasing as the evening progresses and said trough
approaches. The best chance for precipitation looks to occur over
the northern valleys and also along the Continental Divide.  The
trough still looks to remain over the area as a push of upper level
energy drops down and causes a closed low to form off the base off
the trough.  The low looks to form over Arizona on Tuesday with some
unsettled weather continuing for our CWA but nothing too intense or
expansive.  By Wednesday morning, precipitation ends as the low
continues to drop southward.  However, as soon as Wednesday evening
another system will drop down from the northwest.  Models are in
fairly good agreement with precip starting up north Wednesday
evening and continuing through Thursday.  Northwesterly flow will
favor the northern and central mountains and this flow will also
bring in some cooler air.  More snow looks to be a definite


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Energetic system moving through the area will produce widespread
mountain obscurations and CIGS below ILS breakpoints at all TAF
sites until about 19Z to 20z. Periods of IFR CIGS and VSBYs will
plague all TAF sites as well, with LIFR possible at KEGE, KASE and
KTEX. Clearing will move in from the west after about 20z. Valley
bottoms may see fog developing after midnight.




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