Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 191915

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
315 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

...Lingering clouds with some drizzle this evening...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Widespread rains from earlier continue to
push off to the northeast, with much of the area becoming rain-free
as we head further through the afternoon. Plenty of low overcast
lingers, with more low clouds building in from the west with arrival
of northern stream energy and its attendant cold front. Not a lot of
rain attached to this northern wave as primary deep moisture plume
becomes increasingly detached to the east and strongest dynamics are
displaced across Canada. Some drizzle/very light rain showers noted
to our northwest, and expect something similar to arrive overnight
as that northern energy passes.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud and light drizzle
trends tonight.

Details: Any lingering showers should come to an end quickly later
this afternoon. Clouds will remain, although wouldn`t be surprised
to see a few breaks in the overcast as narrow (and shrinking) dry
layer arrives. Any breaks look brief as next band of moisture
arrives from northwest to southeast as weak northern stream energy
does the same. Moisture profiles remain very shallow, and likely not
deep enough to generate a widespread shower threat. Enhanced upslope
flow will likely bring some drizzle to the interior highlands this
evening, but suspect nothing more than perhaps a brief sprinkle
elsewhere. Aggressive drying arrives from the north overnight,
ending any drizzle threat and scouring out some of the cloud cover
in the process.


.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

...High Pressure Once Again Dominates...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Forecast: Clouds will continue to diminish throughout the
Sunday morning hours from north to south as high pressure and much
drier air build over the forecast area. Said high pressure will
provide precipitation free weather through at least Monday night.
Models hint at a another weak area of low pressure over the Ohio
River Valley Monday night possibly producing some rain showers over
the southern parts of the forecast area (mainly south of M-55),
although not too confident as surface high pressure will still be
over northern lower with drier air pushing southward and models have
nudged southward with the deeper moisture and synoptic lift with
each run. Have slight chance pops for those portions for now.
Regardless if there are a few light rain showers over the southern
CWA, clouds will diminish throughout the afternoon providing a warm
and mostly sunny day. Temperatures will moderate a bit each day,
with highs in the mid to upper 60s Sunday and warming a bit each day
to the mid to upper 70s by Tuesday (eastern upper will only reach
into the low 70s). Lows will generally be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Winds will remain on the light side through the forecast period.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

High pressure once again builds over the Great Lakes region
producing another quiet, warm, and dry stretch of weather through
the remainder of most of the work week. Rain chances return Friday
and last into the weekend as long range models have consensus on an
area of low pressure meandering over the upper Great Lakes region.
Highs will be in the mid 70s to near 80 (eastern upper only in the
upper 60s to low 70s). Lows will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

Showers and attendant IFR producing cigs and vis restrictions
should scour out of the area shortly. Secondary surge of moisture
arrives quickly early this evening, but trends support mostly MVFR
cigs with perhaps a few no-vis restricting sprinkles. Skies
expected to clear from north to south later tonight into Sunday
morning. Winds become northwest to north overnight into Sunday.


Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

Passing of a cold front will bring a round of gusty
northwest to north winds tonight, producing small craft advisory
conditions on several nearshore waters. High pressure builds
overhead Sunday into the start of the work week, bringing dry
conditions and lighter winds.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday
     for LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday
     for LMZ341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday
     for LSZ321-322.


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