Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 141931

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
331 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...Colder air and lake effect once again...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Our few hours of weak ridging (actually nearly zonal flow) will
come to an end here later this evening as another shot of colder
air drops down from the north. A short wave evident on water
vapor imagery over northwest Lake Superior will usher in cold air
advection. It should turn marginally cold enough once again
overnight to support lake effect snow showers in north northwest
and possibly northwest flow favored locals (320 to 330 degree
wind flow). Weak upper level energy moving through the flow may
even bring widespread flurries to non lake effect affected areas.
Overall, am not expecting a whole lot of accumulation (on the
order of 1 to perhaps 2 inches) but you never know as we`ve seen
over the last couple of lake effect episodes. Brisk and sharply
colder Thursday with highs only in the middle 20s to lower 30s
while lows tonight range from the middle teens north to the middle
20s south.


.SHORT TERM...(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...Lake effect snow ending, giving way to a quiet weekend...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

An upper low will continue to pinwheel away over far eastern Canada.
It will remain close enough to maintain n to nw flow aloft, helping
to keep temps somewhat suppressed. That said, 500mb heights will
rebound sharply Thu Night/Fri, as a shortwave trof pivots away from
Lk Huron. So temps will some degree...eventually. In
the interim, some lake effect snow remains possible early on,
especially Thu night.

Nnw 1000-850mb winds will persist Thu night, just ahead of high
pressure pushing se-ward into western Superior/western upper MI.
850mb temps will remain in the mid minus teens C for the 1st half of
the night, but we will be warming and drying after that as the high
approaches. Will need to maintain lake effect snow showers Thu
evening, especially in the Gd Trav Bay region. But that will shut
down as we move thru the overnight hours, thanks to loss of needed

After that, high pressure will settle in over the central and
southern Lakes region. One area of low pressure will cross the Ohio
Valley early Saturday. Another will be north of Superior by late
Saturday. Associated areas of deeper moisture will pass to our south
and north, respectively. Should see a healthy amount of sunshine
both Friday and Saturday.

Min temps will range from the upper single thru the teens, with Fri
night a couple degrees milder than Thu night. Max temps Fri near 30f
to the mid 30s, in the mid 30s to lower 40s Sat.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Weather currently looks quiet through the extended. There is a
shortwave moving in from the Pacific coast as we head into next
week, but the system that develops with this disturbance remains
south of us across most guidance. We are on the northern fringe of
this in some guidance, so a shift north could bring some snow. There
are still some differences and uncertainty, and the newest European
guidance has indeed jumped north. I`m not sold on this just yet, I`d
like to see a bit more run to run consistency as it got a lot
stronger with the H5 low, phasing it with some northern stream
energy. The pattern is a bit chaotic to jump on this solution right
now. Another question is with the push of cool air into the region,
which will bring near to slightly below normal temperatures after
Tuesday. There are signs that it could be cold enough to perhaps
support a bit of lake effect snow, but there are equally as many
that it will not get that cold. For now, no changes were made to
consensus PoPs, but will need to keep an eye on the northward
progression of the surface low and the mid-week lake effect
potential over the next few days.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Warm air advection and increasing dry low level air has scoured
out the low clouds. A fast moving clipper type system will bring
a slowly lowering cloud deck late this afternoon into this
evening, and eventually a return to MVFR CIGS and scattered light
snow showers behind the passage of a cold front late tonight which
are expected to continue into Thursday. Winds will become
southwest this afternoon, before turning northwest and becoming
gusty behind the front.




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