Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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654 FXUS63 KICT 152030 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 330 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms possible this evening; mainly across southern KS - Additional shower/storm chances (20-40%) Thursday and Friday across southeast KS - Mainly quiet over the weekend with rain/storm chances returning next week&& .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 As of 3 PM Wednesday afternoon, a complex weather setup was evolving across portions of central KS into OK. A prolonged period of elevated showers and storms moved across southern and southeast KS leaving an outflow boundary in its wake from east central OK into south central KS. Based on the latest surface analysis this outflow boundary intersects the synoptic front in southern Stafford County or northern Pratt County. This boundary is likely to be the focal point for storm development. MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg and a long, veering hodograph will support supercell structures with large hail up to golf ball size and damaging winds. As the evening progresses, a relatively dry boundary layer should foster cold pool/RFD mergers and a gradual upscale growth into more linear structures. Transitioning into the overnight, storms are likely to become elevated with a heavy rain threat across mainly southeast KS. The effective boundary is likely to progress southeast of the forecast area on Thursday. That being said, additional shower and storms are possible north of the boundary across southeast KS. Effective shear values less than 20 kt should limit the potential for severe storms. As we transition Friday into the weekend, a northern stream, midlevel trough will slide across the northern Plains. Limited moisture should keep things mostly dry Friday and Saturday. A more- active midlevel pattern will emerge early next week as a southwestern US trough develops. This will increase the potential for storms, including severe storms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region mainly across southern Kansas and parts of central Kansas late this afternoon and evening. The activity will spread eastward tonight. Meanwhile a cold front will push southward with low clouds in the MVFR/IFR categories developing along and just behind the front. Winds will switch to the northwest behind the frontal passage. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMB AVIATION...CDJ