Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 160727
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
327 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018

Mostly dry weather with slightly above average high
temperatures expected through Thursday. As the weekend approaches,
precip chances will be on the rise with the "best" chances
occuring on Sunday. Drier conditions start off early next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018

A few spots of fog seen across the area early this morning due
to sufficient low level moisture and light winds. The most
frequent offender has been Goshen Municipal Airport which has
bounced between 1/2 and 6 SM visibility over the past several
hours. This patchy fog should mix out fairly quickly once the sun
rises.

Further south, CAMs suggest some of the ongoing convection just
south of the area may briefly move into Blackford and/or Jay
counties around the 8-10 AM EDT hours. Given the split flow aloft,
have kept expectations low as models typically struggle with this
type of setup. Dry conditions are anticipated for the remainder
of the day with slightly above average high temperatures.

Tonight, winds remain fairly light with mostly clear skies so
another round of patchy fog can`t be ruled out. Overnight lows
expected in the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018

Chances for precip return to areas south and east of US Highway
24 in IN and OH Thursday night into Friday as an upper low moves
over Missouri/Illinois. This low will slowly track to the
northeast as it`s wedged between building high pressure over the
East Coast and a longwave trough over the Rockies. This slow
progression will result in lingering precip chances for locations
east of I-69 in IN and OH into the early portion of the weekend.
The next trough moves across the area early Sunday to bring better
chances for widespread precip/thunder. Of course these chances
are predicated on the evolution of the split flow aloft; which as
stated above tends to keep confidence on the low side. The early
part of next week looks mostly dry minus any lingering storms
Monday morning.

Near to slightly above average high temperatures expected through
this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018

Primarily dry and VFR conditions expected through the period as
low level ridge builds into the region. Still some chance for
shallow fog/BR later this morning but latest guidance signals
suggest a low chance. Held with inherited 3SM mention for now but
that may be removed later this morning based on observational
trends.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CM
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...AGD


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