Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 171717

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
117 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Issued at 113 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

An isolated shower this afternoon is possible along and south of
US 30. Otherwise dry weather through Monday with afternoon high
temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Next system moves in
late Monday night into Tuesday with a wintry mix possible.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

A rapidly evolving upper level system that has ejected out from
under a narrow upper level ridge has moved into the forecast area.
The GFS was having major issues dealing with the low level
thermal fields and thus precipitation types. Favor the NAM and
other high resolution models that have a better handle on the low
level thermal fields. Cold and dry air ahead of this system over
northern Indiana and northwest Ohio will play a major role in
precipitation types. Surface temperatures should be virtually at
freezing or just below for this entire event. Have considered
adding a tier of counties north of the winter weather advisory
where the deformation zone will likely set up for 2-4 hours, but
will probably handle in a special weather statement. It looks
like considering radar returns and limited surface obs/weather
types precipitation was snow north of highway 30 with freezing
rain and sleet south of 30. Precipitation should end this morning
with clearing skies later today.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

The overall pattern this upcoming week will be generally cool and
dry. Some energy will eject east out of the main upper level trof
and bring a chance for rain and snow Monday night and Tuesday.
Earlier models favor more of widespread precipitation event;
however, the latest runs lack system organization and favor a
drier pattern. Wednesday through Friday should be cool and mainly
dry with highs from the upper 30s to mid 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 113 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

VFR conditions with light winds throughout the forecast period is
expected. A few lingering showers possible this afternoon over
KFWA but otherwise dry conditions as cloud cover decreases




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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