


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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981 FXUS63 KIWX 071816 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 216 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through 10 pm EDT this evening for southern Lake Michigan beaches. - Dry and less humid into Tuesday with highs in the mid 80s. - Daily, mainly diurnally driven, shower/storm chances Wednesday through this weekend amid humid and warm conditions, best chances (60%) during the afternoon hours on Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Widely scattered showers remain possible through the late afternoon hours near a weak front and lingering moisture axis for locations mainly along and southeast of US 24. Dry and less humid otherwise into tonight and Tuesday as the entire forecast area briefly receives influence from a low level ridge folding east through the central and eastern Great Lakes. A low amplitude shortwave, embedded in weak zonal flow, looks to track east through the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday with a renewed surge of low level theta-e. Forcing/flow is once again on the weak side with better shower/storm chances (30-50%) relegated to the afternoon hours near any outflow/lake breeze boundaries. Similar conditions on Thursday, though this time with diminished moisture quality and no obvious impulses aloft...thus lower PoPs (20-30%) for a diurnally driven shower/storm near any outflow boundary or in regions of greater differential heating. Near to slightly above normal temps and humidity levels for July otherwise with the bulk of the period(s) dry. Ensemble guidance has remained consistent in a Gulf of Alaska upper-level trough diving southeast toward the north-central US. This feature will also help kick an upper low off the California coast east toward the western Great Lakes by later Friday into Saturday. These features could come together to provide episodic convective events across the Midwest later Friday into Saturday, with Saturday appearing to the best opportunity for thunderstorms locally. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 144 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 The frontal boundary has cleared the forecast area, though lower cigs remain at KFWA this aftn where winds remain WNW. KSBN has scattered out with a northerly wind. It will take awhile for the llvl moisture to clear KFWA, so improvement isn`t expected until later in the fcst period. Expect vsbys to once again lower at KFWA overnight with a return of some mist and some vsby restriction at KSBN due to BR. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Steinwedel AVIATION...Frazier