Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 140530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
130 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018

Issued at 745 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018

There is a chance for a few showers and storms this evening along
and south of Route 30 and then again just before daybreak as a
stronger storm complex moves across the area. Isolated, strong
gusts of winds are possible with these storms. Otherwise, warm
weather is ahead through this upcoming week into next weekend with
highs from the mid 70s to mid 80s. Numerous chances for storms
will persist with humid conditions through the week.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018

Another storm complex was developing upstream over Iowa and was
moving east. This system is expected to become more organized and
possibly become a forward propagating bow/linear pattern. This
will bring more of a damaging wind threat across most of the area
late tonight/early Monday. Otherwise, small hail and locally
heavy rainfall are possible; however, due to the speed of this
system, widespread flooding is not expected.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018

A warm period is ahead through this upcoming weekend with
highs from the mid 70s to mid 80s as weak ridging persists
downstream of an upper level trof along western North America.
This will allow a rather stagnant airmass to continue over the
forecast area. Precipitable water values will generally be between
1.3 and 1.6 inches through next Sunday. This pattern will allow
for storm chances most days with the potential for heavy rainfall
as weak upper level trofs move across the area. It does not appear
a deep tropical connection will happen, helping to limit the
potential for heavy rainfall.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018

Another round of convection expected early this morning on nose of
LLJ/theta-e advection. Complex currently developing across IA/WI
and will slide across the area around 12Z. Some SCT convection
also noted ahead of the complex and supports VCTS mention starting
within the next hour or two. Fairly high confidence on timing but
some concern that strongest convection will pass just north of the
terminals...particularly KFWA...limiting fuel alternate impacts.
VFR then expected late morning through afternoon with another
round of convection possibly arriving at the very end of this TAF




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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