559
FXUS63 KLOT 140754
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
154 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures continue through mid next week.

- Less than 30 percent chance of rain around and south of US-24
  Saturday night.

- Precipitation chances return toward the middle of next week
  (30-50%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Temperatures are in the mid to upper 30s presently for urban
areas of Chicago and expected to drop down to around freezing by
day break. However, another night of clear skies has allowed
for temperatures in more rural areas to drop down into the 20s,
with Rockford being the coldest by touching 22 for a moment
early this morning. With dew points in the low 20s, there is a
chance for patchy fog to crop up, particularly north and west of
the Fox Valley. While the fog threat will be monitored, dense
fog is not expected this morning.

Temperatures will once again climb into the 50s today, though an
afternoon lake breeze will keep the Illinois shoreline in the
40s. There is a little uncertainty on max temperatures though
given the increased cloud cover through the day from the
incoming system which may limit heating.

Mosaic radar imagery shows a wide swath of showers and
thunderstorms over Kansas City and the Ozarks down past
Abilene, Texas. These showers and storms are associated with an
upper level low projected to remain well south of Illinois.
However, it will create a short wave trough that will pass over
Central Illinois into tonight. Model guidance continues to
trend chances for rain farther south, leaving the NAMNest as
the hi-res outlier of rain chances north of US-24. PoPs were
once again scaled down, with a sharp gradient of higher PoPs
south of US-24 and only slight chance PoPs around and just north
of it.

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will begin to grow
over the Plains on Sunday and move toward the western Great
Lakes through the early part of next week. With a warmer air
mass moving in, consistent above normal temperatures are
expected with a chance for low 60s on Monday. A weak upper
level trough moving through central Canada is projected to send
a dry cold front southward Monday night into Tuesday morning.
While rural temperatures have a chance for upper 50s and maybe
low 60s on Tuesday, the resulting onshore winds that develop
behind the front will keep temperatures much cooler in the
40s for areas closer to the lake. As the next upper level
trough moves into the Dakotas late on Tuesday, better warm air
advection out ahead of it will increase temperatures once again
for another shot at 60 on Wednesday.

There remains some model discrepancies on the details for the
middle of next week, but there is a consistent signature that
that trough will form an upper level low, develop surface
cyclogenesis in the eastern Dakotas and continue to move
eastward over Wisconsin on Wednesday. While the better chances
for downpours is expected to remain closer to the surface low
north of the forecast area, this system looks to have the next
best chance of showers (and a slight chance for elevated
thunderstorms) for the area. Given the current path of the low
projected through Wisconsin, there is lower confidence in how
far south the rain will make it in the forecast area and might
develop a strong gradient for areas south of Interstate 80.

After a cold front moves through in the wake of the Wednesday
system, temperatures will gradually tumble down into the
weekend. Models are still suggesting another stronger system
will develop and eject out of the central Plains late next week
and move northeastward over the area, though disagreeing on the
details. One thing to monitor will be overall temperatures.
While rain is still the favored precipitation type, with cold
air filtering in, there is a chance that it could result in
snow or a rain/snow mix at times, though the details will have
to be ironed out as it comes closer into view.

DK

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Light and variable/southwest winds will persist across the
terminals into Saturday, in a region of weak surface high
pressure which will linger across the area. The weak gradient
and light winds are expected to support an easterly lake breeze
development for the Chicago terminals Saturday afternoon,
though high-res model guidance has trended a bit later and with
less of a push with this than earlier. Have maintained
19Z/20Z/21Z timing for GYY/MDW/ORD respectively, though some
guidance is as late as 00Z or so for ORD. Winds are then
expected to turn light south-southwest again later Saturday
evening.


With light winds and generally clear skies currently, there
remains the potential for some patchy shallow ground fog to
develop mainly west of the Chicago area towards daybreak
Saturday morning. Have kept a tempo mention for MVFR vis in BR
and MIFG for both RFD and DPA, which appear to have the greatest
potential. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the
forecast period, with a gradual increase and thickening in
mid/high clouds Saturday afternoon/night to the north of an
area of rain which pass well south of the terminals across
central IL Saturday night.

Ratzer

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.

&&

$$

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