677
FXUS63 KLOT 120501
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1101 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will remain generally above average through the
  upcoming 7 days, particularly into early to middle portions of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Surface high pressure centered over northern Missouri this
afternoon will drift eastward across Illinois overnight through
Thursday morning. Mid to upper-level cloud cover will gradually
increase tonight ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level wave within
marginal Pacific-based moisture aloft. Current satellite trends
line up well current guidance depicting a narrow corridor of
mid-level moisture across Nebraska. As 800-600 hPa frontogenesis
sharpens below the right-entrance of a developing 130 knot
upper-level jet streak, the axis of mid-level moisture should
further saturate and generate a corridor of precip aloft while
drifting eastward across Iowa through the night. With existing
dry low-levels and the absence of steep lapse rates aloft,
precip rates aloft will struggle to top-down saturate fully to
the surface. Have maintained 10 to 20 percent PoPs for a
rain/snow mix across the far southwest CWA Thursday morning.
Weak ridging will then shift across the area Thursday night into
Friday.

Broader consensus guidance remains mostly unchanged with a
dominant southern stream system over the Baja of California late
this week remaining detached from the main northern stream
across the northern CONUS. The latest forecast depicts a dry and
seasonably mild weekend for much of the area, with 30 percent
or lower rain chances toward central Illinois late Saturday into
Sunday morning. With that said, there has been a slight
northward jog in ensemble guidance, with several members still
supporting some interaction with the two streams and precip
reaching up to around the I-80 corridor. Corresponding cooler
thermo profiles would also support some wet snow mixing in with
rain on the northern fringes of the precip shield late Saturday
night.

A large central CONUS ridge will edge eastward over the mid and
upper-Mississippi River Valley early next week, setting the
stage for an unseasonably warm period to the southwest that may
extend to the local area. An initial piece of energy originating
from a deeper west coast trough may result in a period of
unsettled weather with perhaps some convection in the general
region midweek.

Kluber

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1101 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

There are no key messages for the 06Z TAF period.

Light and variable winds overnight will favor NW before
flopping over to E during the morning. Expect E to SE winds
below 10 kt during the day on Thursday. VFR throughout the
period.

Doom

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.

&&

$$

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