150
FXUS63 KLOT 131858
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
158 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Outside of a small chance for a few showers west of I-39 this
  weekend, dry conditions and summer-like warmth will persist
  through at least next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Post Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to decay across
the mid-Mississippi River Valley through this weekend. Periods
of associated mid to upper-level cloud cover will filter over
the area during this time. An axis of Gulf moisture advecting
around the system will bring of ribbon of higher moisture into
western Illinois on Saturday that may support isolated showers
and perhaps a stray lightning strike during the afternoon. Have
maintained some 10-15% PoPs west of I-39 as a couple weak
inverted trough axes may provide subtle forcing during the
afternoon, but overall conditions favor a dry forecast for the
area through the weekend.

Ongoing tropical activity in the southeastern states and a
prominent ridge over the Great Lakes region has continued to
foster mid-level blocking across the central and eastern CONUS.
With another tropical system poised to develop off the Carolinas
early next week before drifting N/NNW across the Mid-Atlantic,
the overall flow will remain more or less blocked. This should
keep our area firmly situated on the western extent of an
expansive and persistent surface ridge. Beyond the small chance
for a few showers this weekend, the forecast will remain dry
through next week. Daytime highs in the mid to locally upper 80s
and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s will be common amid
southeast to easterly winds. Worsening drought conditions will
therefore be the main focus through the forecast period with
nearly our entire forecast area in D0 (abnormally dry) status
and a couple small areas now in D1 (moderate drought) status.

Kluber

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

There are no significant aviation weather concerns anticipated
through the period. Expect winds to primarily remain from an
easterly direction, with a few occasional gusts up to 18 KT
possible this afternoon. While wind directions may trend more
northeasterly for a period tonight, they are expected to shift
east-southeastward again after daybreak Saturday.

VFR CIGs are expected through the period. Heights the rest of
today will be above 25,000 feet, though a deck around 8,000 feet
looks to develop during the day Saturday.


KJB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.

&&

$$

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