Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 151700
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1200 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Active convection in SEMO still, but overall, tops are warming and
lightning strikes are diminishing. Models suggest lingering pop
but diminishing trend continues, with reactivation in juiced up
atmosphere this pm. Effective clouds and convection should tap
temps down a degree or two from yesterday, but still it will be
very warm and near record highs are possible.

Pops linger each mid week day in the forecast, as Low pressure
replaces High pressure over the FA. Mid to high chance pops will
be best during the peak heating hours, with lightning and heavy
rain the primary storm related hazards. Isolated strong storms,
however, cannot be ruled out.

Due to increasing convective chances and resultant clouds, Highs
by Wed-Thu will be in low to mid 80s, which will be a welcome
relief to the string of 90s/record warmth. Dew points will stay up
however, so apparant temps will still feel like summer.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

We continue to expect several days of unsettled weather during the
extended forecast period. There will be on and off chances for
showers and thunderstorms during this time. Hate to muddle up the
entire extended forecast with POPs, but the fact that they are
rather low conveys the low confidence on timing/placement of the
activity.

On Friday, an upper level trough will be slowly moving out of the
region. Models continue to have differences on how quickly this
trough moves out of the region and where the best moisture will lie
across the area. Consensus between the GFS ensemble means and the
ECMWF continue to highlight eastern sections of the CWA. Will have
POPs in the slight chance to chance category as decent heating and
instability will be in place.

PoPs should taper off Friday night through Saturday as any decent
forcing wanes. We will see an increase for more convection Sunday
through Monday, as models start converging on a consensus that a
front will drop into the area providing a better focus for activity.

High temperatures will remain in the 80s during the period. The best
chances of reaching near the 90 degree mark will occur over the
weekend, when winds become southerly ahead of the aforementioned
front.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

VFR conditions through Wednesday. Widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms anticipated. Confidence too low to include in the
Terminal Forecasts. Winds will be light.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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