Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KMKX 231936

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
236 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018


Tonight through Wednesday - Confidence...Medium
Combo of increasing low level cyclonic flow due to evolution of
inverted trough along with a northern stream shortwave, will
result in a continued small shower chance in the far southeast.
Cold front moves in Tuesday night with a gusty north/northeast
wind regime. Could be a spotty shower or two with that feature.
Low level thermal trough lingers into Wednesday. Should have less
wind as surface high starts to build in.

Thursday and Thursday night - Confidence...Medium
Thermal ridge pokes up ahead of another cold front so should see
temps bounce back from the cooler day Wednesday. The GFS is
faster on bringing in showers into northwest half of cwa Thursday
afternoon, while the ECMWF and extrap of NAM would delay this
until Thursday evening. Blended guidance brings a small chance
into the far northwest in the afternoon so will ride with that for

Friday and Saturday - Confidence...Low to Medium
The ECMWF develops showers in northwest flow/cyclonic regime on
Friday while the GFS shows more low level ridging negating the
shower potential. This difference carries into Saturday with the
ECMWF showing chilly 850 temps while the GFS is well into a warm
air advection regime with 850 temps well above zero C.

Sunday and Monday - Confidence...Medium
A rather warm pattern is setting up with a warm south/southwest
wind becoming established. Forcing for precip remains to our west
this period. 925 temps proggd into the 10-15c range for Sunday and
deeper into the teens celsius for Monday so may see highs getting
above blended guidance should trends persist. Could also see some
dew points reaching the 50s by Monday.


.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...Expecting some increase in cloud cover with
moisture spreading northward ahead of the low in mid miss vly.
Small shower chances still look good in the southeast corner. Some
lower ceilings (MVFR and IFR) are still possible in the far
southeast per MOS/consshort.


.MARINE...Increasing northerly winds and building waves will likely
bring Small Craft Advisory conditions Tuesday night and Wednesday.



Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Collar
Tuesday Night through Monday...Collar is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.