Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 211730 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Please see the 18Z Aviation Discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Quiet and dry conditions continue during the short term. Winds
may be gusty on Sunday, especially in north-central Minnesota.

A blocked pattern aloft was in place early this morning with a
cutoff low over southeast Colorado with an upper-level ridge
farther north into the Canadian Prairies. Surface high pressure
was situated over the western Great Lakes and the Upper Midwest
and will slowly drift eastward during the weekend. The closed low
will push east into the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Sunday
as the ridge over the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies
flattens. Very dry conditions and abundant sunshine will result in
deep mixing both today and Sunday. Low-level winds will gradually
strengthen from the southwest Sunday afternoon ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough. Wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are
possible over our northwestern zones during the afternoon thanks
to the deep mixing. Highs will top out in the middle 50s to middle
60s today, with a few upper 60s possible on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Sunday night finds the GFS as the only model generating any
precipitation with some upper level energy moving through
Minnesota. All models agree that an approaching cold front weakens
by the time it moves through south central Canada. Have ignored
the GFS and gone with a dry forecast. The GFS continues to
generate some precip Monday morning over the northern third of the
forecast area before going dry. Other models maintain the dry
forecast and will follow. What is left of the front moves into
northeast Minnesota with only a wind shift with passage. The GFS
is still the outlier Monday night, although it is beginning to get
some support from the GEM, with trying to bring some precip into
the region as an upper level wave moves through the Dakotas and
south central Canada, and into western Minnesota late. Used a
blended approach which led to pops over the western third of the
region. Enough cold air is brought into the area to generate a few
snow showers north of U.S. Highway 2. The GFS maintains the wet
forecast for Tuesday, the ECMWF is dry. There is some question on
the amount of moisture available as the upper trof passes by along
with the cold front. Kept the blended approach. Models get back
into agreement Tuesday night with upper level/surface ridging
covering the area through Wednesday evening. Late Wednesday night
through Thursday night finds a vigorous upper level trof swinging
through the forecast area. A cold front accompanies this trof and
brings much colder air with it. Look for a rain/snow mix late
Wednesday night through Thursday morning, changing to rain through
the rest of the day, diminishing from west to east with frontal
passage. A short wave follows behind late Thursday night and
Friday clipping the eastern third of the region. Some snow showers
are possible Thursday night, then mix with rain on Friday over
the eastern third of the region. Temps start above normal through
Monday, then cool to below normal temps Tuesday through Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

VFR through the forecast with clear skies. Winds will remain light
through much of the forecast as high pressure nudges into the
Upper Mississippi River Valley. Expect gusty southerly winds to
develop mid to late Sunday morning as the pressure gradient
tightens due to the cold front sliding in from Eastern North


DLH  59  27  61  38 /   0   0   0  10
INL  61  33  63  42 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  59  30  63  39 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  58  27  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  60  24  60  38 /   0   0   0   0




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