Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 221727

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1227 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

At 4 AM this morning, skies ranged from clear in the eastern half
of the CWA to cloudy across the western half. As a result of the
variation in cloud cover, temperatures ranged from the upper 20s
in the Brainerd Lakes area, to the single digits in the Minnesota
Arrowhead. Winds were generally light and variable this morning.

The main focus for today through Friday will be cloud cover and
temperatures. A bit of a tricky cloud cover forecast today as we
should see extensive cloud cover in the Brainerd lakes area, and
little cloud cover in the east. In between will be the most
tricky, with east central Minnesota, far northwest Wisconsin and
the Twin Ports area right on the edge of the cloud cover. Overall,
we think there should be a good deal of sunshine in the Minnesota
Arrowhead and much of northwest Wisconsin, with a bit of
improvement in the Duluth/Superior area as the day wears on.
Temperatures are expected to rise into the lower 40s for much of
the region, especially in those areas with the most sunshine.

Drier air should really make an impact on the Northland weather
tonight, as high pressure digs in across the western Lake Superior
region. As a result, we should see decreasing clouds from east to
west, with temperatures falling into the teens. Would not be
surprised to see some single digits in the Arrowhead.

Friday will be a day of transition, especially for the Brainerd
Lakes region, as the next system is expected to gradually push
into that area during the mid to late afternoon. Some light snow
could make it into that area by late afternoon, but it will most
likely hold off until Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

A round of light snow for parts of north-central and east-central
Minnesota Friday night, then another chance for a rain/snow mix
early next week with temperatures near to slightly above normal
through the long term forecast period.

On the synoptic scale a broad warm front zone will build east across
the Upper Midwest Friday night leading to a swath of snowfall
ranging from eastern North Dakota into southeast Minnesota. An area
of high pressure over Ontario will limit the progression of
precipitation eastward due to drier air advecting in from the
southeast at mid to low levels. Model guidance is in fairly good
agreement with the eastern extent of the precipitation, remaining
west of a line from Bemidji to McGregor to Webster WI. Areas of
southern Cass and Crow Wing counties could see around 1 to 3 inches
of snowfall Friday night into Saturday, though it is possible this
area of precipitation ends up being farther west and less snow falls
in this area.

Over the weekend southerly flow will persist at low levels across
the Upper Midwest resulting in a period of dry weather before
precipitation chances return late in the weekend into early next
week. While the fine-scale details are complicated, on the synoptic
scale a broad longwave trough digging in to the Four Corners region
and a broad ridge across the east coast will lead to widespread
precipitation chances across the Great Plains and Mississippi River
Valley. Southerly flow at low levels across the Mississippi River
Valley will lead to increasing low/mid level moisture Sunday into
Monday, with the broad weak lift from the warm air advection leading
to light precipitation developing. Ahead of the mid-level longwave
trough over the Four Corners region a number of weak mid-level
shortwave trough impulses will track across the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest, and while there is a wide spread in guidance in terms
of the large-scale forcing, in general there will be an increasing
potential for precipitation Sunday night into Monday, with the best
chance for precip late Monday into Monday night as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Precipitation will likely be a mix of
rain and snow, and while some deterministic guidance like the GFS
and ECMWF are on the cold side (leading to more snow), ensemble
guidance means are on the milder side (leading to more rain/mix). In
the reasonable worst case scenario, some parts of the Northland
could see 3-5 inches of snowfall Monday. Snow may linger into
Tuesday before high pressure builds across the northern Great
Plains. Temperatures then trend slightly milder with highs in the
40s through the rest of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Even though high pressure was nearby, an upper level piece of
energy was moving southeast over northeast Minnesota at the start
of the forecast. Clouds were developing as a result, but should
primarily remain VFR. The exception will be at BRD where MVFR cigs
will prevail until around sunset, then improve to VFR. The clouds
should dissipate elsewhere this evening as the upper energy
departs and the dry high pressure stays in control.


DLH  42  18  37  21 /   0   0   0   0
INL  43  16  41  19 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  42  22  41  25 /  10   0  20  50
HYR  44  16  42  22 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  41  17  38  20 /  10  10  10   0




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