Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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680
FXUS63 KDLH 210544
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1244 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Updated below for 06Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Continued dry conditions tonight and Monday as high pressure remains
in control. Another night of good radiational cooling is anticipated
tonight as skies remain mostly clear and winds will be light in
nature. Decreased tonight`s lows by a few degrees given how cold it
got last night. Tonight`s lows will fall into the lower to middle
30s over most locales.

Monday will be mostly sunny early before a mid-level shortwave,
currently situated over far northwestern Nebraska will slowly
translate northeastward, bringing some better forcing and positive
vorticity advection into the region. Analysis of both the 20.12z NAM
and GFS soundings show that there`s still a lot of dry air near the
surface, which will make it very difficult for any precipitation to
reach the surface, so I trimmed back the PoPs for Monday afternoon a
bit. The soundings do indicate some mid- to high-level clouds will
be likely associated with this mid-level impulse, so continued the
increasing clouds from the south over the southern half of our
forecast area. There could be another small lake breeze developing
late Monday morning and afternoon. Highs tomorrow will range from
the lower 70s south to the middle 70s north.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

An upper level shortwave moving eastward across southern Minnesota
will bring some clouds and a small chance of showers to the extreme
southern portion of the CWA early in the period. The best chance
would be from Tuesday night into Wednesday evening across our
southern border. A better chance of showers, and even a few
thunderstorms, will occur later in the week. A surge of warm and
humid air is expected to move into the upper Midwest and western
Great Lakes starting Wednesday night, with a good chance of showers
and a few storms on Thursday. The unstable airmass will persist
through the entire end of the week and into the weekend, with
various opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. The GFS has
backed off on their earlier solution of phasing two energy streams
across our area, and as a result, the precipitation would be more
scattered than the widespread QPF they had with that solution. The
new solution is more in line with the ECMWF and GEM trend. High
temperatures throughout the long term period are expected to be in
the 70s to lower 80s, with the exception of the weekend, which could
see some upper 60s in the north.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

High pressure will lead to VFR conditions at the start of the
period. As this area shifts to the east, a shortwave will begin to
move in the region. This will lead to increasing clouds,
especially over the southern reaches of the area. This will lead
to some MVFR CIGS at KBRD and KHYR towards the end of the TAF
period. Any shower activity Monday afternoon and evening looks to
remain south of the terminals. Winds are expected to remain light
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  72  46  75 /   0  10  10   0
INL  34  76  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  38  70  47  76 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  34  74  46  76 /   0  10  10   0
ASX  30  72  44  77 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BJH
SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...BJH



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