Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231732

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1232 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Issued at 1018 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Minor adjustments to Wx/Sky to account for current radar trends,
otherwise maintaining afternoon/evening trends of previous
forecast. Will reassess based on latest short range/hi res
guidance and radar trends.

UPDATE Issued at 658 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

No changes at this update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Southerly flow was aloft over the area. Upper level ridge will build
over the MN side and shift slowly east for tonight.  Short waves
will move north along the flow and produce the threat of precip for
the area. Water vapor indicated a short wave over western SD.

700 theta-e ridge will move north today with more moisture moving
into the area. Think precip will continue to move north today.
Could dissipate later this morning then redevelop this afternoon as
instability increases.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

The main question for Thursday morning through early Thursday
afternoon is if there will be any lingering convection left over
from the Wednesday night activity. Have kept low pcpn chances to
account for this, but it should generally be pretty weak. By later
Thursday afternoon and evening, the short wave begins to move into
the FA along with several surface boundaries. As long as the morning
cloud cover scatters out, looking at the potential to warm up into
the upper 80s/lower 90s with surface dew points in the 60s. Main
limiting factor to too much severe thunderstorm activity is lower
end shear amounts. Low level jet Thursday evening quickly shifts
east of the FA, so not expecting any severe activity to last very
long into the evening.

Models are hinting at some Friday afternoon weaker convective
activity getting going around the 500mb short wave/low, mainly
closer to the Canadian border across northwest Minnesota. This
activity diminishes again Friday evening. Differences start to pick
up between the models for any Saturday afternoon/evening convective
activity, but it looks possible once again across northwest
Minnesota. Model differences continue into the rest of the longer
range forecast period. Overall, expecting a 500mb ridge axis to
build in, but it is slightly different on each model. Therefore
each has its own slight differences in keeping it dry or showing
minimal pcpn chances. Temperatures should continue to stay above


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period, though
brief restrictions in vis/cig to MVFR (or even IFR) can`t be ruled
out if moderate/heavy rain were to impact a terminal. Shower and
thunderstorm activity should increase in coverage through the
afternoon, with best chance for impacts to terminals in the
evening. Currently best chance for thunderstorm impacts would be
outside of the first 6 hours, and with lower confidence on
thunderstorm coverage during that period I decided against VCTS
or TSRA mention in TAFs at this time. Southeast winds may gust
during daytime periods in the 20-30kt range (mainly at KFAR and
KDVL). A period of low level wind shear may also develop (mainly
at KBJI).




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