Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 140443

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1143 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Issued at 1015 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Punch of dry air at 300 mb has cleared the cirrus over eastern
Manitoba into northern MN, with area of thicker cirrus hanging on
SW Manitoba into eastern ND and west central MN. Warm advection
aloft peaking attm and seeing a SW wind keeping temps up in many
areas, with coldest readings in the far SE fcst area where winds
are lightest. Overall very little change to going fcst needed.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Cloud cover and therefore temperatures will be the main issue for
the period.

Upper ridge over the Northern Rockies has been dumping cirrus into
our CWA from Canada, although we are still getting a decent amount
of sunshine filtering through the high clouds. A trough of low
pressure will move from Manitoba/Ontario into the Great Lakes in
response to a weak shortwave digging down the front side of the
trough. This will help push a backdoor cold front into the CWA
late tonight. Out ahead of the front, southwest surface winds will
bring warm air advection and keep us fairly mixed. This will
balance out the outgoing heat loss somewhat, so think we will stay
warmer than the single digits that we saw this morning. Have more
widespread mid to upper teens for lows. Think the mixing along
with the westerly fetch to the wind should keep too much fog from
developing so left that out for tonight.

The backdoor cold front will push further into the CWA during the
morning hours, with high pressure building down into the area.
There is some cold air advection, although the truly cold air
will stay north and east of us during the day. Some stratus along
with the cold front will also be possible, although the models are
all over the place on how overcast we will be tomorrow. Not
confident enough to fully sock us in with clouds all day, but
increased cloud cover a bit during the day tomorrow. Think there
will be enough breaks in the clouds to make the 30s, but will keep
a close eye on stratus as more than we are expecting could keep
highs from maxing out.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Despite March strength of sun and sunshine the light winds from a
north or northeast direction will not help much with air temp as
energy will be used to melt existing snow. Guidance in good
agreement placing high pressure over northern Manitoba to start
before ore moving it southeast through the prevailing northerly

Upper ridging building over the region Fri into the weekend would
appear to be adequate enough to keep the storm track south of the
forecast area. The ECMWF still does a better job of this than the
GFS which allows a slightly more northward track for the pcpn
shield. Neither solution points toward any chance for impactful
winter weather though. Next week should begin with more of the same;
mainly dry with temps near or slightly below rising seasonal


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

The few models that had indicated the threat for some lower clouds
moving into parts of NE ND have trended back to VFR. Thus
confidence is higher now that VFR thru 06z Thu. Winds turning from
south/southwest to north as we progress into Wednesday daytime at
8 to 15 kts.




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