Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200206

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
906 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Issued at 903 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Primary concern tonight will be frost potential with light to calm
winds and a cool airmass. Thin cirrus likely not a factor on
overnight lows. While most guidance a bit warmer than current
hourly temp curve, MET guidance (NAM MOS) is a few deg cooler.
Have extended advisory to the west a tier of
Fosston is generally a cool spot...and added Towner/Cavalier in


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Temperatures and frost headlines will be the main issue for the

Split flow with the main shortwave to our south over Nebraska and
the Northern Plains between the northern and southern branches.
Surface high pressure will be building into the CWA tonight. North
winds that have been very gusty today will diminish after sunset,
and many locations will become light and variable as the center of
the high settles over us. Cloud cover has exited the southeastern
counties, although a bit of cirrus has been approaching the
southwestern counties thanks to the upper low to our south.
Earlier runs of the GFS and NAM had some of this high level
moisture entering much of our CWA tonight, but the 12Z runs keep
most of it south. The most recent RAP has the current cirrus
decently handled and brings it briefly into our far south this
evening, but then dries out later tonight. Overall, think it will
be an ideal radiational cooling night with mostly clear skies and
light winds. Think that the far eastern tier will have the best
shot of seeing temperatures dropping below 36 degrees due to
slightly drier dew points upstream from that area. The HREF and
GEFS ensembles have some low probabilities of our eastern counties
getting down below 32 F. While that may be overdone considering
current dew points, think mid 30s are a good bet and put the
eastern tier in a Frost Advisory for late tonight. A few spots
in eastern ND could also dip down close to 36, but it looks to be
isolated and short lived.

After a chilly start tomorrow morning, the May sun will help highs
rise to the low 70s in most areas. Winds will be light and
conditions very quiet for Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

For Sunday night through Monday night, quiet and pleasant weather is
expected as high pressure remains situated over portions of the
Northern Plains and Great Lakes regions. Monday will bring light
winds, most sunny skies, and highs in the 70s.

Tuesday through Friday, zonal flow aloft transitions to southwest
flow as a closed low develops in the Southwest. This brings a more
active weather pattern with increasing moisture as southerly low
level flow develops for the middle to end of the week. Model
agreement is pretty poor as to when and where the forcing
mechanisms, upper shortwave energy and the primary surface low and
boundaries, develop. Thus have low confidence in the details of the
forecast for the second half of the week at this time. Rain chances
begin to move in on Tuesday and Wednesday, but these are not
widespread. Thursday to Friday looks to be the better chance for
most locations to see some wetting rain, with chances for thunder on
at least one of the two days as the main upper trough passes through
the Dakotas and Minnesota.

There is good agreement on temperatures next week. From Sunday night
through the middle of the week, expect a warming trend as drier
weather prevails and southerly flow develops for the Northern
Plains. By mid week, most locations will see summer like again.
Although there is uncertainty in the late week system, warmer
weather is likely to prevail based on proximity to the
aforementioned system and increasing thicknesses ahead of the system.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

VFR...NE winds will become light and variable tonight as sfc ridge
moves over area. By 12Z, look for lightest, most vrb winds to be
roughly along a Carrington (46D) to Bemidji (KBJI) line with winds
to south becoming more easterly and winds to north becoming more
westerly through the day. May see some early morning frost on
planes left out during the night, especially east of the valley.


ND...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for NDZ006-007.

MN...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ006-008-009-



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