Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 180308

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1108 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

Issued at 954 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

Another overall quiet night on tap with high pressure across
Ontario/Quebec and the northern lakes region, and dry easterly
flow across the Great Lakes. SCT mid and high cloud will continue
to stream through, largely emanating from deep moisture plume/active
weather to our south. In addition, we likely will keep a little
bit of an easterly surface wind going throughout the night as the
sfc high continues to slide east and resulting pressure gradient
tightens up across the state. No substantial changes needed to the
going forecast.


.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

...Clear...calm and cool tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Strong high pressure remains centered
from Central and Eastern Canada into the Great Lakes region this
afternoon...maintaining clear skies and quiet wx across our CWA.
Cool airmass overhead has limited daytime heating across most of our
area...with most places holding in the 50s and 60s so far this

Little will change as we head into tonight with strong high pressure
and dry air thru the column holding over our most of the Great Lakes
region. Expect a clear...calm and cool night across the
Northwoods...with overnight lows dropping into the 40s.


.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

...Rain Friday night and Saturday, Is it Enough?...

High Impact Weather Potential...Continued elevated fire danger, due
to warm temperatures, low relative humidity and dry conditions.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...High pressure moves out of the region
during the day on Friday. This allows two systems to move into the
Upper Great Lakes during the evening. The southern system, an upper
level (500 mb) low and sfc low in the Ohio Valley at 06z/Sat, spread
rain over the region through the evening, reaching M-55 sometime
after midnight. Models are in some agreement on the precipitation on
the east side of the state as we go into Saturday morning and
afternoon, and they agree on the break in the precipitation that
lasts into Saturday night/Sunday morning as the lows move off to the

Primary Forecast Concerns...Rain amounts are the main concern, since
we are in prolonged period of dryness. Couple that with the low RH
and warm temperatures, we have been in an elevated fire danger state
Since Monday. So far the amounts that we have been expecting out of
this system over the few days has been 0.25" or less. With the fuel
moistures reported by the land management agencies, our elevated
state of fire danger, may be put on pause, as it rains on Saturday,
then start back up again Sunday/Monday after the rain ends and the
RH levels are expected to drop again.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

...Limited Rain...

Extended (Sunday through Thursday)...Model runs the last few days,
have been kind of all over the place, with rain on one model one
day, then on a different model the next, and now showing a trend of
little to nothing through the Sunday through Thursday period. Models
were showing something on Sunday/Monday, but now have trended to
split the rain, north and south, or in the cast of the GFS, to delay
it to Monday afternoon/Tuesday morning. The ECMWF is dry through
that period and then Wednesday to Friday morning is dry. From the
looks of the pattern, we are trending to stay dry. So will expect
that we will probably begin to reach D0 status on the drought
monitor coming up. This will keep us in some sort of elevated fire
danger through the upcoming week and maybe into the Memorial Day
weekend, if CPC is right.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 1108 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

VFR weather continues with just some SCT mid and high cloud cover
cycling through the region tonight through much of Friday. Low
level flow increases later tonight and Friday and may lead to
marginal LLWS conditions at the terminal sites during the
overnight hours, and some gustiness through the day Friday.

Meanwhile, subtle low pressure and a deep plume of moisture and
associated active weather currently ongoing from the Ohio Valley
southward through the Gulf Coast and SE Atlantic states. Deep
moisture and active weather will be making it`s way northward into
the Great Lakes region starting late Friday and into Saturday.
This will bring lowering/thickening cloud cover into the region
Friday night. Conditions should remain VFR through 06Z Saturday
but may further deteriorate to MVFR by Saturday morning.


Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

Overnight, the high pressure centered in NW Ontario will move SE
and into eastern Quebec by 12z/Fri. As it does, the next system
moves out of the Ohio Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes. This
will tighten the pressure gradient and begin to increase the winds
and especially the wind gusts by Friday afternoon. Winds may gust
to near small craft criteria only to have the gradient relax
Friday night and the winds diminish. As a second area low pressure
approaches from the west, the pressure gradient will remain slack
and keep the winds light into Saturday.




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