Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 262341 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
541 PM MDT Sat May 26 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Dense mid and high cloud cover will thin out from west to east
overnight. Much more sunshine Sunday with VFR conditions continuing.
Breezy to windy conditions will develop in the afternoon, with the
strongest winds in northeast NM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...302 PM MDT Sat May 26 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
New Mexico will be underneath dry southwest flow aloft through the Memorial
Day Holiday. Light to moderate southwest winds will continue through
the Holiday as well. High temperatures will be near seasonal
averages central and west and above average east through Monday
before rising to above average levels areawide Tuesday through the
rest of the week. Low level Gulf moisture will push westward into
eastern New Mexico each night through the week but then get forced
back into TX during the afternoon. Only a slight chance of a stray
thunderstorm is possible near the Texas border during the late
afternoon or early evening. Very warm to hot temperatures are
forecast for much of the area Wednesday into early next weekend,
especially east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Quite the pesky area of cirrus moving over NM today thanks to the
deformation/stretching of the atmosphere in the mid and high levels
between a closed upper low over NV and a ridge of high pressure over
the Southern Plains. Models agree that this swath of high clouds
will slowly push east and northeast overnight. These clouds will make
for a tricky overnight low forecast. Given the dry airmass in place,
even partial clearing will result in efficient radiational cooling
to space. A few sprinkles are still possible this evening in the
northern mountains tonight but that`s about it.

Closed low over the Great Basin churns away though Memorial Day with
southwest winds aloft over NM. What`s left of the associated weak Pacific
cold front brings a few degrees of cooling to the northwest half of
the state Memorial Day and Tuesday. Out east, southwest to west winds
will keep things toasty thanks to downsloping effects.

Temperatures warm to above average all areas Wednesday through early
next weekend, especially east. Gulf moisture/dryline does the usual
sloshing wwd at night, getting pushed ewd during the afternoon so a
stray thunderstorm or two is possible near the TX border otherwise
hot and dry will be the rule into next weekend. Near record to record
highs are possible for much of the area Thursday through Saturday.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS...

A broad upper level low pressure system slowly crossing the central
and northern Rockies, and a surface trough in the lee of the
southern Rockies, will continue to produce strong winds over New
Mexico for the remainder of the holiday weekend. Although extensive
cloud cover limited heating and inhibited atmospheric mixing some
today, skies will clear tonight with mostly sunny skies, hot
temperatures, unstable conditions and very low humidities both
Sunday and Monday. An axis of stronger winds aloft will shift over
eastern New Mexico Sunday, then linger across northeast areas
Monday, favoring eastern areas for critical conditions after today.
Areas of poor humidity recovery are also expected tonight, Sunday
night and Monday night.

Tuesday, winds are forecast to weaken some across the as the upper
low shifts slowly northeastward onto the upper Great Plains and the
surface lee trough weakens. That said, winds aloft will remain
moderately strong over northeast areas, and surface winds are
expected to get strong enough for locally critical conditions across
the northeast.  If the upper low is any slower to exit, or if it
tracks farther south than expected, winds could be strong enough for
another fire weather headline east of the Sangre de Cristos on
Tuesday.

Humidities are expected to increase some Wednesday, mainly across
the northeast where a back door cold front will enter Tuesday night
lowering temperatures some.  Wind will also weaken Wednesday, while
remaining a bit gusty, as a ridge of high pressure crosses. There
will be a chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday mainly in Colfax and
Union Counties.

An upper level trough will cross the west coast and Great Basin on
Thursday, before shifting eastward across the central Rockies
Friday. Winds aloft will strengthen and another lee trough will
develop in the process, with another round of strong winds and
potentially widespread critical fire weather conditions. The
atmosphere will probably be extremely unstable as temperatures climb
well above normal and areas of super Haines develop.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for the following
zones... NMZ103-104-108.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
the following zones... NMZ103-104.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ103-105-109.

&&

$$

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