Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 120159

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
759 PM MDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Issued at 756 PM MDT Sun Mar 11 2018

No changes needed to previous forecast.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 218 PM MDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Upper level ridge axis over the state will shift east tonight and
Monday. Meanwhile, the short wave currently drifting through
Idaho will shift east and then southeast through Wyoming. There is
just weak QG lift associated with this wave as it reaches
northeast Colorado Monday afternoon. The wave tries to draw up a
little mid level moisture from the Four Corners area left behind
today`s system. However, it still appears moisture levels are
quite thin and limited, so at this time don`t expect more than a
few light snow showers in the mountains and foothills. At most
maybe a light sprinkle, but mostly virga expected on the adjacent
plains/Wyoming border area Monday afternoon.

Temperatures should moderate a bit more with a downslope component
and warm advection overnight into early Monday morning. Thickening
clouds later in the day however, should keep most highs on the
plains in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM MDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Forecast will start off warm and dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a
sharp upper level ridge building over the Central Rockies. The
combination of warm advection aloft and downslope warming will
boost highs into the lower 70s across the plains by Wednesday.
Similar warm conditions can be expected into Thursday, although a
glancing short wave out of the deep western U.S. trough is still
on schedule to bring scattered showers to the mountains, and
possibly the northern border area by Thursday afternoon and
evening. An isolated thunderstorm may even be possible if airmass
destabilizes sufficiently, or if trough digs a little deeper like
the latest 12Z ECMWF suggests. If there is not as much digging,
then gusty, dry winds would lead to higher fire danger. Confidence
is rather low regarding the exact details at this time, so we`ll
mention some showers/storms over the mountains and northern border
area for now.

As in the last couple days, there are still large uncertainties
starting by next weekend with regard to the evolution of the
stronger upper level trough and any lee side surface cyclogenesis.
There does appear to be better agreement now with short wave
ridging on Friday as the main upper low spins off the California
coast. Saturday could remain mild and relatively dry if upper
level low holds off the coast. We are trending the forecast in
this way, with more of the impactful weather holding off til
Sunday or Monday. Overall, model solutions would still favor the
mountains into Wyoming for more significant precipitation. But
again, there`s not much confidence here with these slow moving
upper lows, so will only trend forecasts with no significant
changes made in the big picture.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 756 PM MDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Winds will gradually become more southerly in the next few hours
and continue overnight.




SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...RPK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.