Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 160014 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
714 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...The afternoon sea breeze is heading inland moving
towards the MFE area which will allow for light E-SE to prevail
this evening. The 00z BRO sounding is very dry with a PWAT of 0.42
inches. So don`t expect any significant cld cover over the next 24
hours. The PGF will be strengthening across the central Midwest
as a deep 500 mb trough axis digs into the Rockies. This will
produce stronger SE surface winds during the latter half of the
upcoming TAF period. VFR conditions expected over the upcoming 24
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 233 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): 500mb ridge across the
western United States this afternoon will move eastward across the
central U.S. Monday. At the surface...surface high pressure across
the western Gulf of Mexico will move slowly eastward tonight through
Monday night. An onshore flow will return late tonight into early
Mon morning. Breezy conditions will develop across the Rio Grande
valley Mon afternoon as the pressure gradient increases across the
lower Texas coast. Low to mid level moisture will remain low across
the CWA tonight through Mon night so not much in the way of cloud
cover is expected through the period. Expect lows tonight in the 50s
across most of deep south TX tonight as clear skies and light winds
allow radiational cooling. Temperatures will reach the lower to
middle 80s across most of the RGV Mon afternoon and with dewpoints
in the 40s and 50s...provide breezy and dry conditions tomorrow
afternoon. Winds are expected to diminish slightly Mon night as
mixing diminishes with loss of diurnal heating but breezy conditions
will continue across the area through Mon night.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): Mid level ridge axis over the
central United States Tuesday will move east by midweek as an 500 mb
trough lifts over the northwest United States. Surface high pressure
across the Gulf of Mexico will interact with low pressure on the lee
side of the Rockies. The tight pressure gradient will support breezy
to windy conditions across eastern portions of the CWA on Tuesday. A
Wind Advisory may be needed for the coastal counties on Tuesday.
Erratic wildfire behavior is possible Tuesday afternoon due to the
combination of gusty southeast winds, dry fuels, warm temperatures,
and low to moderate humidity.

A weak cold front across central Texas on Wednesday is expected to
move south into south Texas and stall Wednesday night into Thursday.
The next mid level ridge moves overhead Thursday. The pressure
gradient will weaken across the region, resulting in weaker onshore
winds. The frontal boundary should move northward as a warm front
Thursday night and Friday. The combination of low level moisture and
the surface front in the vicinity should support a few showers
Thursday and Friday. Another shortwave trough will dig across the
Pacific Northwest Thursday, and the resulting High Plains storm
system that deepens into Thursday night will bring breezy conditions
across deep south Texas on Friday. The next weak cold front
approaches and moves through the region late Saturday into early
Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop with the front.

MARINE (Tonight through Monday night)...Seas were near 3 feet
with north winds near 10 knots at buoy020 early this afternoon.
Light northerly winds will veer to the east and southeast tonight
and increase slightly with surface high pressure across the
northwest Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient will increase
across the lower Texas coast Monday as low pressure develops
across northwest TX Mon afternoon. Light to moderate southeast
winds will increase to moderate to fairly strong Mon afternoon.
Will likely see SCEC conditions across the Laguna Madre and
possibly offshore Monday. Winds will increase offshore Mon night
and small craft advisories will be needed for the offshore waters.
SCEC conditions will continue across the Laguna Madre Mon night.

Tuesday through Thursday night: High pressure over the Gulf
interacting with lower pressure across the Plains will support a
tight pressure gradient through midweek. Low end small craft
advisory conditions will be possible Tuesday through Wednesday due
to moderate to strong south winds and elevated seas. A weak front
will approach the area on Wednesday allowing winds to decrease
Wednesday night into Thursday. Another low pressure system will
develop across the Plains Thursday night, increasing southeast winds
and building seas.

FIRE WEATHER (Monday)...Surface high pressure across the
northwest Gulf of Mexico coast Monday and low pressure across
northwest Texas will provide a strong pressure gradient across the
lower TX coast Mon afternoon. Temperatures will be in the middle
to upper 80s across the Rio Grande valley Mon afternoon with
dewpoints in the 50s across the lower RGV and in the 40s in the
upper RGV. This will result in erratic wildfire behavior across
most of the CWA Mon afternoon with 20ft winds in the 15 to 20
knots range and gusts to near 25 knots and relative humidity
values less than 30 percent across deep south TX except across the
coastal sections. Will continue Fire Weather Watch for Monday and
the watch will likely be upgraded to a Red Flag warning for
Monday afternoon.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for TXZ248>250-252-253.

GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term/Aviation...60
Long Term/Upper Air...64



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