Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 061712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1212 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...New AVIATION...

(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

With the help of the locally heavy rains yesterday, patchy areas of
dense fog have developed across parts of the CWA overnight...and is
likely going to persist through mid morning or so. Over the coastal
waters, activity has already started and is progged to continue and
expand just offshore through the rest of this morning. And so...the
concern with this is that the associated clouds could help to limit
heating and hold the potential inland to a later start by this aft-
ernoon. But that being said, we should see another round of showers
and thunderstorms today given the proximity of the mid/upper trough
axis/low and weak shortwave energy from the NW flow aloft. Activity
will be on the decrease by this evening, with patchy areas of dense
fog possible once again. Highs today will remain mostly in the mid/
upper 80s with lows tonight in the upper 60s to around 70.

The aforementioned low/trough is set to begin shifting east tomorrow
and this should lead to lower POPs overall. Drier air along with the
building ridge aloft from the west should help to limit the develop-
ment of showers/storms, with the best coverage generally east of the
I-45 corridor. And via this pattern shift, slightly warmer temperat-
ures will be on tap. Highs should run more into the upper 80s with a
few spots around 90. Lows will range from the upper 60s to the lower


(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Temperatures dominate consideration of the long term forecast, so
let`s discuss precip chances real quick, and get them out of the
way before we dig into the meat of the forecast. In broad strokes,
rain is just an ancillary consideration, as I have no more than
slight chances for rain the forecast - and even then, it`s pretty
front-loaded for late this week and this weekend. We`re probably
going to need the convergence on the seabreeze to get much of
anything to pop, particularly on Friday into the weekend as the
faucet gets squeezed off. Thursday still looks to show a bit more
of a typical diurnal trend, with some offshore chances for rain
early in the morning, but it wouldn`t be a surprise if we`re
unable to manage even an isolated updraft should our upcoming
blast furnace pattern build in early/strong.

Speaking of...the upcoming pattern is very much supportive of
hot temperatures for Southeast Texas. Given the range, there`s
certainly plenty of uncertainty in how unseasonably hot we`re
looking. There`s been a bit of early discussion around the office
about any potential need for heat advisories, but other than
"they`re on the table", it`s far too early to speak much more on
that. Regardless of headlines, a solid early summer hot spell is
a very high confidence forecast going into next week. Early season
heat is often more dangerous due to the lack of acclimation, so if
you don`t have a heat buddy yet...get one!

Okay, so, hot stretch on the way, check. It might get real hot.
But you might be asking me, "how are you so confident about this
heat, really? You`re always talking about uncertainty at range.
Even tonight, you`re talking about it". And you`re certainly right
on those last couple of sentences. On the other hand though, the
meteorology here seems pretty straightforward. By Sunday
afternoon, the Euro and GFS both have a 593-595 dm 500 mb high,
with ridging of some sort being the prevailing weather feature for
our area down to the surface. By Tuesday afternoon, that mid-level
ridge is 595-596 dm and drifting closer to Texas, while ridging at
lower levels strengthens and 850 mb temps push over 20C.

But where the confidence really starts to come in is in the
ensemble data. From Saturday through Tuesday, the NAEFS mean 850
mb temps start to push above the 90th percentile at the coast,
eventually spreading across the area and 97th percentile temps
begin to emerge. The Euro ensemble wants to turn the torch a
little hotter; As we push into next week, its mean 850 mb temp is
above the 97th percentile for most of the area, and a good chunk
of the area - roughly I-10 south - is above the 99th percentile.
When mean 850 temps are pushing extremes, heat is sure to follow.

It is worth noting that the Euro`s Extreme Forecast Index doesn`t
necessarily translate all of this to surface temps. Indeed, its
max temp EFIs for most of the area are below 0.5, and only 0.6 to
0.7 at the coast. This is where some of that talk of uncertainty
starts to creep back in. Yeah, it`s looking pretty good to be hot.
Probably even more than the "usual" hot. But extreme heat is still
TBD. For now, I tried not to stray too far from the NBM. I
basically took the higher of the deterministic NBM and the median
NBMs for high temps. Since the two are pretty close in this
instance, this is just a slight hedge towards heat. Cluster
analysis suggests that the primary scenarios are pretty close to
the multi-model ensemble mean, so this seems like a pretty
reasonable place to shoot for right now.

Now, do you want a sneak peek beyond the forecast period? The Euro
ensemble mean 850 temps keep getting hotter later in the week, and
even start to max out the model climo. So, for as much as hotter
temperatures are the talk of the latter part of this forecast,
don`t necessarily expect that talk to be quieting down in the days
to come.


(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Starting to see inland showers developing with heating. Expecting
to see scattered TSRA develop in the next couple of hours around
HOU, SGR, and LBX. Further inland, expecting isolated TSRA

May see a few areas with MVFR ceilings late tonight and early
tomorrow. But, confidence is low on that, so am forecasting SCT
around 1500 for this late night strato cu. Expecting to see some
MVFR BR late tonight.

Less TSRA coverage is expected tomorrow, amd likely to be limited
to just the aft hours.



Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

The persistence of a slow-moving upper trough means we can expect
unsettled weather to continue again today, with rain and storm
potential peaking overnight and early in the morning over the
Gulf, and later in the morning and afternoon on the bays. Showers
and thunderstorms will generate locally higher winds and seas,
but otherwise light winds and low seas will persist this week.
This disturbed pattern will slowly wind down through the second
half of the week, and go quiet next week as ridging takes command
and more fair weather and hotter temperatures prevail.


College Station (CLL)  68  89  70  93 /  10  20   0  10
Houston (IAH)  70  89  71  92 /  20  20  10  20
Galveston (GLS)  75  85  76  88 /  10  10   0  20




LONG TERM....Luchs
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