Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
118 FXUS64 KLIX 161156 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 656 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 640 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 - Strong winds continue behind the cold front. Gale conditions are forecast to impact the coastal waters through the afternoon hours behind a strong cold front. Small Craft Advisories bookend the Gale conditions. A Wind Advisory is also in place for coastal locations and areas south of Lake Pontchartrain through this afternoon. And, if that`s not enough the winds combined with low humidities this afternoon have led to issuance of a Red Flag Warning for elevated wildfire danger. - There is increasing confidence that below freezing temperatures will be noted along and north of the I-12 corridor early Tuesday morning. A Freeze Watch is in effect for those areas. - Scattered showers across southwest Mississippi and the adjacent Florida Parishes of southeast Louisiana are capable of producing small hail or graupel over the next several hours before moving away from the area. && .UPDATE... Issued at 519 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Had to increase PoPs across northwest sections of the area for the next few hours, with isolated/scattered post frontal convection. Certainly won`t be severe, but wouldn`t be surprised to get one or two reports of graupel across southwest Mississippi as there`s been video from local media in Alexandria within the last hour. The actual cold front is through our entire land area with the exception of lower Plaquemines Parish, and it will clear that area in the next hour or so. Temperatures have fallen 15-20 degrees in the last few hours with the frontal passage. Also updated CWF to eliminate the overnight Small Craft Advisory which was replaced by the Gale Warning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Upper trough extended from Iowa to east Texas, with ridging along the Pacific coast. A strong cold front was approaching McComb and Baton Rouge at midnight CDT. A broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms was just ahead of the front. Temperatures that were in the lower and middle 70s will drop through the 50s in the wake of the front overnight. The daytime hours today will be characterized by windy conditions, decreasing clouds and much cooler temperatures. High temperatures that were in the 80s on Sunday will not get out of the 50s today and Tuesday. Additionally, much drier air will be moving in and have lowered dew points from NBM deterministic values as they usually do not perform well in post-frontal situations. Relative humidity values combined with windy conditions justify the Red Flag Warning that was issued yesterday. For tonight, NBM continues to track well above the globals for overnight lows, and go a bit closer to NBM25 for the lows. Would note that the last cold spell, the globals ended up being too cool, so won`t jump whole-heartedly onto the global numbers. Even the NBM forecast lows are near or below the records for March 17th and 18th. Won`t change parameters of the Freeze Watch at this time, and assume that day shift will upgrade to a warning with the midday/afternoon package. For Tuesday, very dry air remains in place, but wind speeds will generally be below 10 mph, so don`t anticipate needing Red Flag Warnings on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Northwest upper flow continues through about Thursday before ridging builds in from the west. Surface high pressure will be over the Gulf for the 2nd half of the workweek through the weekend. Don`t expect any significant precipitation through the weekend. Wednesday morning will still be chilly, and the Pearl and Pascagoula River drainage basins could hit pretty close to freezing again. Beyond that point, temperatures will moderate, returning to much above normal levels for the weekend, around 80 degrees. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions across the terminals this morning with most terminals reporting gusty northwest winds. While the main threat of TSRA has departed, we`ve seen the redevelopment of scattered SHRA and perhaps a few TSRA northwest of KMCB and KBTR over the last 90 minutes. There have been isolated reports of small hail or graupel associated with a few of these showers. Expect the upper impulse to exit the area later this morning with VFR conditions beyond that point. Winds will eventually diminish around sunset, except at KNEW, where wind gusts of 25 knots could continue all night. && .MARINE... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Cold front will move through most or all waters prior to sunrise. Will maintain the previously issued headlines with conditions gradually improving during the day on Tuesday. Beyond that point, don`t see any wind/wave issues returning for the remainder of the forecast period. Fog doesn`t appear to be much of a threat until perhaps next weekend. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 519 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Record lows for Tuesday (3/17) AND Wednesday (3/18) POR is period of record LOCATION (POR) TUESDAY (3/17) WEDNESDAY (3/18) BTR (1892) 34/1962 34/2005 MSY (1946) 32/1962 33/1960 MCB (1948) 29/1976 28/1960 GPT (1893) 34/1923 36/1928 ASD (1994) 34/2007 32/2005 PQL (1997) 36/2025 37/2005 RECORD LOW MAXIMUM FOR 3/17 BTR 50/1960 MSY 55/2005 MCB 46/1960 GPT 50/2005 ASD 52/2005 PQL 52/2005 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-065>067-071-076- 079>086. Freeze Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for LAZ034>037-039-047-048-071-076-079>084. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ056>060-064>070- 076>078-080-082-084-086>090. GM...Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ530-532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071. Freeze Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086>088. GM...Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ532-534-536-538- 550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW