Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 102056
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
356 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Morning)...

Convection is ongoing across the region this afternoon, especially
along and west of the I55 corridor. Deep moisture continues to
stream into the region with PWATS exceeding 2.0" across the
area. At the surface, surface convergence is in abundance from a
modest surface trough to many mesoscale boundaries. Convection
will continue to develop where these areas are maximized over the
next few hours. The best potential again will continue to be
along and west of I55 for the next few hours, but there could also
be additional redevelopment of convection over the MS Gulf Coast
where satellite shows some sun breaking through the clouds and
likely destabilization taking place. That said, the moist column
through the vertical profile isn`t very supportive of tons of
instability and strong storms at this point are rather doubtful
as DCAPE values remain extremely lackluster.

Going into tonight, a few scattered showers should continue to
cycle downward over the land-based zones as the diurnal cycle
shifts offshore. That said, still cannot rule out some shower
activity given the upper levels are slightly cooler with an H5
weakness over the region. As per usual, fog favored areas may see
some patchy fog overnight especially where heavy rainfall
occurred, generally north of I10/12 corridor.

On Thursday the flow shifts more northerly as the aforementioned
weakness continues to amplify over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic
States. As the surface, a weak frontal boundary will move
southward toward the I22/I20 corridors in AL/MS before slowing
down as it nears the coast. At the surface, the fire hose of low
level moisture will continue from the southeast as the area
remains on the western periphery of the subtropical high centered
across the W Atlantic. Thursday appears to be another wet day with
efficent rainfall producers once again. Hydro concerns will be
possible, especially over urbanized locations and locations that
recently received very heavy rainfall amounts near the AL border.

Toward the end of the period, the surface front continues to inch
closer. Again, the continued return flow (although a bit weaker)
will continue to allow/maintain deep tropical moisture over the
CWFA. As the surface boundary nears the region, this will provide
yet another source of low level convergence for enhanced
diurnally driven convection. Temperatures over the next couple of
days will likely be a bit on the lower side given the increase in
rain and cloud cover. (Frye-28)

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...

Mid-upper level flow is expected to remain northerly on the
southeastern flank of the central CONUS ridge through the latter
period which will allow for passage of weak shortwave features and
associated surface boundaries rounding the ridge periphery to
influence the CWA`s day to day variability of weather. Namely, a
weak frontal boundary is expected to move southward and stall near
the gulf coast on Saturday which will serve as a sufficient
forcing mechanism for focusing storm development especially along
and south of I-12. Exact timing and placement of this boundary
remains uncertain and thus there is only a diffused north-south
gradient for PoPs depicted based on NBM blend. By Sunday, guidance
indicates drier air on the back side of the boundary will settle
in and begin to suppress diurnal convective coverage. Monday and
Tuesday have the highest confidence of a given location observing
dry conditions before a more moist environment returns by
Wednesday. Temperatures will remain near average through the
period with the highest temperatures in the low 90s occurring in
areas that avoid afternoon thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. By
the middle to end of next week, global models are indicating that
a stronger shortwave trough will dig into the middle MS River
Valley which could lead to a more active weather pattern for our
area and increase PoPs.


&&

.AVIATION (18z TAFs)...

Convection coverage is increasing across much of the area this
afternoon. Covered TEMPOs for most terminals. GPT is getting a
break for now, but may see another round of shower/storm activity
later this afternoon or early evening. Otherwise, convection
should drop off around or shortly after sunset for the most part
before redeveloping again on Thursday. Winds should remain mostly
light and variable and outside of convection, VFR conditions are
anticipated...except perhaps MCB where early morning low
stratus/fog will be possible. (Frye-28)

&&

.MARINE...

Outside of showers and thunderstorms, mostly benign marine
conditions through the rest of the week and into the upcoming
weekend. The region will sit on the western periphery of the
persistent subtropical high over the western Atlantic, which will
only provide light to moderate southerly winds. Otherwise, in and
around convection expected brief heavy rainfall, cloud-to-water
lightning, and perhaps a waterspout or two. With the elevated
tides and persistent (albeit relatively light) expect some minor
coastal flooding during high tide cycles for at least one more
day. (Frye-28)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  85  69  86 /  60  80  30  80
BTR  73  88  72  88 /  60  80  30  90
ASD  73  87  72  88 /  70  80  40  90
MSY  75  86  74  86 /  60  80  50  90
GPT  74  86  74  87 /  80  80  50  90
PQL  73  86  72  88 /  70  90  50  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ066>070-
     076-078.

GM...None.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ080>082.

GM...None.
&&

$$


Short Term/Marine/Aviation...Frye-28
Long Term...TS


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