Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 141727
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1227 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorm potential the primary concern today. Increasing
confidence in storms developing southwest of KLBB and moving to
the northeast. Have inserted a brief TEMPO mention in each TAF to
account for this movement, although may have to adjust the timing
some later this afternoon. There is a weak cold front that will
move past KCDS around sunrise Tuesday. This front may reach KPVW
and KLBB before 18z, and the front might have some low clouds
behind it. Will maintain VFR conditions at this time and further
evaluate the stratus potential in later TAF cycles.

&&

.UPDATE...
Severe event still on track, although an MCS moving across the
western Permian Basin may end up causing thinking of evolution to
be reevaluated. Weak capping today suggests an early start with
areas southwest of Lubbock currently pegged for initiation.
Initial storms may struggle, but once they get east toward the
Caprock Escarpment in an area of better instability the severe
threat increases. Cirrus and altocumulus downstream from the Basin
MCS may end up adjusting storm evolution and severe threat
northward toward the northern Rolling Plains.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 555 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018/

AVIATION...
Primary concern today will be the risk of thunderstorms across the
area. The dryline will move to near a KLBB to KCDS line by mid-
afternoon with thunderstorms expected to fire in its vicinity.
These two sites have the greatest impact risk with a lesser chance
at KPVW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Southwest flow will persist over the area through at least
Wednesday thanks to a stationary upper level low pressure system
over Nevada. This pattern will allow for a decent surge of mid level
moisture to stream over the area. That, combined with the sloshing
dryline will keep the threat of severe weather in the forecast today
and tomorrow.

Starting with today, moisture and instability levels east of the
dryline are decent this afternoon. Progged soundings near KCDS are
showing 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE with almost no CIN late this
afternoon. Deep layer shear peaks at 30 knots. Thus, the main threat
with storms that develop will be strong downbursts winds and large
hail. A secondary threat will be locally heavy rainfall with any slow
right moving storms.  West of the dryline, near critical Fire
Weather conditions will continue.

Moving onto tomorrow afternoon, a surface front drops south through
AMA CWA and stalls just across the northern parts of the FA. As this
happens, an upper level short wave will pass over the area and the
dryline will push eastward to near the center of the CWA. By early
afternoon, steep lapse rates will be present, as daytime heating
occurs, storms should develop along or east of the dryline.
Available potential energy will be perhaps tapered somewhat though
still supportive of severe levels.  Storms that do develop will be
capable of large hail and strong wind gusts.

Wednesday and Thursday, a shortwave ridge moves over the area
leading to northwest flow aloft. Wednesday evening/night another
round of storms is possible for the NE portions of the FA as storms
develop across E NM and move southeastward into the CWA. Friday, the
closed low that was positioned over NV will develop into an open
trough and start to track across the Four Corners. As this occurs,
SW flow aloft will return and so will the potential for storm
development. Saturday, a backdoor front pushes across the area. The
front is now weaker than previously forecasted. None the less models
show moisture increasing across the SE portions of the area and as
the front interacts with the dryline storms could develop across the
area.

FIRE WEATHER...

Today hot and dry conditions will be present west of the dryline
across the southwest Texas Panhandle and western South Plains where
RH values ranged from 10 to 15%. Winds will remain below critical
values, though elevate fire weather conditions will occur. Thus,
an RFD has been issued for the SW Texas Panhandle and the western
South Plains. Additionally, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will be possible along and east of the dryline later this
afternoon and evening. Moisture and instability levels will
support strong to severe thunderstorms which will include strong
outflow winds, lightning and pockets of wetting rains.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07



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