407
FXUS64 KOHX 180536
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1236 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

- Brief but welcome relief Tuesday with dry weather. One final
  push of heat returns Wednesday, but remains below Heat Advisory
  criteria.

- A more progressive pattern develops Wednesday night into next
  week, bringing increased rain chances and a return to near
  normal temperatures by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 946 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

A reinforcing surge of drier air and NW flow will settle across
Middle Tn on Tuesday. Highs are expected in the upper 80s to low
90s under mostly sunny skies, noticeably more comfortable than
recent days. Overnight lows Tuesday night drop into the upper 60s
to around 70 with clear skies.

By Wednesday, southerly return flow allows temperatures to
rebound. Highs climb back into the mid to upper 90s with
increasing humidity, pushing heat indices into the 90s to low 100s
in some locations. While not as extreme, it will still feel quite
warm. Clouds increase Wednesday night as the next system
approaches, with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely after
midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 946 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

A cold front associated with a deepening trough over the E U.S.
will move through the region Thursday. This will bring the best
rain chances of the period along with highs held in the upper 80s
to low 90s. Any stronger storms Thursday could produce gusty winds
and heavy rainfall, through organized severe weather appears
limited.

Behind the front, temperatures settle closer to seasonal normals
Friday through the weekend, with highs generally in the upper 80s
to low 90s and lower humidity. Additional chances of showers and
storms linger into the weekend as residual moisture and weak
disturbances rotate around the trough, but coverage should be more
scattered.

By early next week, high pressure builds briefly, favoring
mostly dry conditions and continued seasonable temperatures.
Confidence is good in the overall cooling and increased
precipitation trend through the weekend.

The prolonged heat episode of mid-August is effectively ending.
Enjoy the more comfortable conditions Thursday, then prepare for a
wetter stretch through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Following yesterday`s fropa, high pressure is now building into
Middle Tennessee from the northwest, so we can look forward to a
stable atmosphere thru the TAF period. We do expect radiation fog
and low stratus at KCSV and KSRB during the early morning, but
this should be gone by mid-morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      90  65  95  73 /   0   0   0  50
Clarksville    89  66  93  72 /   0   0  10  60
Crossville     83  62  89  68 /   0   0   0  30
Columbia       91  67  96  73 /   0   0   0  50
Cookeville     84  64  90  70 /   0   0   0  40
Jamestown      83  63  88  68 /   0   0   0  40
Lawrenceburg   89  66  94  72 /   0   0   0  40
Murfreesboro   90  67  95  72 /   0   0   0  40
Waverly        89  67  95  72 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Rose