Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 130529

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1129 PM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 PM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Upper level trof across WY/NE will continue dropping southeastward
through the plains.  Mid level cloud deck will increase across the
area and although lift is weak and the layer of saturation seemly
shallow, an isolated shower or two will be possible across the
central mountains and far southeast plains.  Any precipitation will
be spotty and light and plains are carrying silent pops for now to
reflect the very low potential. Trends will need to be monitored and
forecast adjusted as necessary. Meanwhile, increased cloud cover
across the area associated with the system may serve to hold
temperatures up a few degrees.  Still undercut model blend low
temperatures across the western areas where skies are more likely to
clear out towards morning.

Any isolated showers will be pushing southeast early Tuesday morning
out of the southeast corner of the state.  Temperatures will be
cooler for most areas behind the cold front, but will still be
running above normal for the valleys and western mountains.  Models
continue to indicate some spotty light showers Tuesday afternoon
across the mountains with residual shortwave energy riding through
the ridge. Suspect models are overdoing coverage a bit and have kept
pops largely in the silent category for most areas. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 351 PM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Tuesday night-Wednesday...Northwest flow aloft across the region
Tuesday night becomes more west to southwest through the day
Wednesday, as level ridging builds across the Great Basin and into
the Rockies. Models continue to indicate the potential for showers
and continue to print out some qpf over the higher terrain, however,
not convinced will see measurable precipitation and have kept silent
pops across the higher terrain through the evening and ending
overnight. Dry conditions prevail on Wedensday as well, save for the
mention of a few afternoon showers across the ContDvd, as moisture
slowly increases ahead of a wave translating across the Great Basin.
Temperatures warm back to above seasonal levels on Wednesday with
highs in the 60s to lower 70s across the lower elevations, and
mainly in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain. There could be
some localized areas of critical fire weather conditions Wednesday
afternoon with breezy westerly winds developing over and near the
higher terrain through the day.

Wednesday night-Thursday...Models continue to indicate increasing
southwest flow aloft with a short wave ejecting across the Great
Basin and across the Rockies through the day Thursday. Models do
differ on timing and location, with the GFS remaining a faster and
further north solution than the ECMWF, which remains a tad slower and
further south. At any rate, both solutions indicate increasing
chances of precipitation across the ContDvd, especially the
Southwest Mountains, with generally light accumulations expected
through the day Thursday. The GFS solution keeps the rest of South
Central and Southeast Colorado breezy to windy and dry, where as the
further south solution of the EC still keeps the area breezy to
windy, though would allow for better chances of a few showers
spreading across the higher terrain and even across the I-25
Corridor Thursday afternoon and evening. For now, stayed closer to
the drier GFS and blended model pops solution. The breezy to windy
conditions will likely lead critical fire weather conditions across
the area, as temperatures soar well above seasonal levels,
especially across the plains with highs in the 70s to lower 80s

Thursday night-Monday...There remains a lower confidence in the
forecast through the rest of the extended forecast, as operational
and ensemble model data continue to struggle with timing and
location of energy lifting across the area through the day Thursday
and Thursday night, per latest 12z ECMWF developing a closed low
across northeast Colorado Thursday night and Friday, as well as the
timing of the deep Eastern Pacific system digging across the West
Coast and and ultimately across the Rockies into early next week.

With that said, stayed with current blended model data, which keeps
the area dry Thursday night and and Friday, with breezy west to
southwest winds possibly leading to another day of critical fire
weather conditions across Southeast Colorado. However, will need to
watch for the potential of the current 12Z EC solution, which would
bring some wind driven snow to northern portions of the area.

Will see increasing southwest flow aloft again on Saturday and
Sunday, as the GFS ensemble mean digs the West Coast system into the
Great Basin Saturday, with the system weakening and lifting out
across the Rockies as a broad upper trough Sunday and Sunday night.
Again, this solution keeps best precipitation chances across the
ContDvd through the weekend, with mainly breezy to windy conditions
being progged across Southeastern Colorado. This will lead to the
potential for critical fire weather conditions across South Central
and Southeast Colorado though the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1126 PM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018

VFR all sites. Some middle level clouds should keep fog from
developing at KALS overnight. --PGW--




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