Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 271753
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1153 AM MDT Sun May 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 407 AM MDT Sun May 27 2018

...Red Flag Conditions expected across much of southern central and
portions of southeast CO today with Severe thunderstorm potential
far eastern plains...

Upper low will continue to spin over the Great Basin today with
impulse evident in central NM progged to lift northeastward across
southern CO in the afternoon.  Increasing winds and already low
humidity values will contribute to another critical fire weather day
with conditions looking more volatile as winds are progged to be
stronger than yesterday.  Current Red Flag Warning looks on track
and would expand the warning area eastward a tier of counties if the
fuels were deemed critical by land management agencies.  Since they
are not, will leave Red Flag Warning area unchanged.

The far eastern plains across Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and Baca counties
will be east of the dry line for much of the day.  By this afternoon
this area will see CAPE values up to 2000 j/kg with highest values
across Kiowa and Prowers counties.  Deep layer shears will be in the
20-30 kt range which is on the marginal side for severe
thunderstorms.  However if surface winds pull more southeasterly
around north side of the SE CO surface low, then shears could end up
a little higher.  All said, think main threats will be large hail
and damaging wind gusts today...with Kiowa and Prowers having the
greatest risk.  Interesting to note that high res models have been
suggesting thunderstorm initiation will occur fairly early this
afternoon with timing of the shortwave lifting northward across the
area. Area of initiation could be as far west as Crowley, Otero and
even eastern El Paso counties initially, however westward advancing
dryline should be mixing out surface dew points through the
afternoon which may result more in a wind threat for these initial
thunderstorms.

Tonight...thunderstorms should advance eastward through the evening
with GFS and NAM hinting at MCS development across NE CO/SW NE/NW KS
overnight.  GFS keeps some activity going across Kiowa county
overnight as southeasterly low level jet cranks up around east side
of surface low.  Meanwhile, cold front will spread southward across
the Palmer Divide tonight penetrating southward along the I-25
corridor by dawn.  For now best chance of stratus looks to stay
north of the Palmer Divide, but will have to watch this evolution
with the next set of model runs as thunderstorm outflows could
change these details. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 407 AM MDT Sun May 27 2018

Monday...The upper low over the Great Basin begins to weaken and
eject to the northeast across the Rockies on Monday. This pattern
will continue strong southwest winds aloft across the state,
producing one more day of enhanced fire danger for the southern San
Luis Valley, southern Sangres and southern I-25 corridor. Went ahead
and issued a Fire Weather Watch for those areas. The strongest winds
are forecast to be further east, but latest fuels info indicates
that the fuels further east are not readily available for burning.
As for pcpn chances, the central mts, Palmer Divide and far eastern
plains will have the best shot of some convection through the aftn
and eve. Models indicate a weak cold front dropping south across the
plains late Mon, and there is enough shear and llvl moisture that a
severe storm is possible near the Kansas border Mon night. Look for
highs in the 70s to around 80F for the high valleys, and 80s to
around 90F for the plains.

Tuesday and Wednesday...As the upper low weakens and continues
tracking across WY through Wed, isolated diurnal showers and storms
are forecast each day for the higher terrain and far eastern plains,
along with weaker winds. No fire weather concerns for both days at
this time, but with the upper trough axis sweeping across CO on Tue,
there is the chance for a few stronger storms over the eastern
plains Tue eve. Temps will warm into the 70s for the high valleys,
and upper 70s to upper 80s for the plains.

Thursday through Saturday...Another trough of low pressure over the
West Coast Thu will move across the northern Rockies Fri and Sat. It
looks like it is far enough north that the state will remain dry,
with the forecast area slipping back into enhanced fire danger.
Minimum humidity levels each aftn will likely drop into the single
digits. Temps will again warm to around 80F for the high valleys,
and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM MDT Sun May 27 2018

At all three TAF sites (KALS, KCOS, KPUB), winds of 15 to 20 knots
will gust to 30 knots from the south this afternoon. Thunderstorms
today should stay to the east of the TAF sites, but an isolated
storm may develop near the vicinity of KCOS and KPUB early this
afternoon. Winds will weaken out of the south/southwest after
dark. A cold front will advance through KCOS then KPUB around
midnight, shifting winds to out of the north and making them gusty
for a few hours. Winds will remain out of the north into the
morning. MVFR stratus are possible at KCOS and KPUB during the
early morning hours, but northerly flow behind the cold front
should mitigate coverage.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>230.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for COZ224-225-229-230.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LINE


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