Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 122123
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
323 PM CST Wed Dec 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Wed Dec 12 2018

A few issues to deal with for tnt into Thursday. First off, the fog
that has been tough to break over the northeast CWA this afternoon,
will likely reform and again spread out and cover much of the region
overnight. With a fair amount of clouds headed that way, am not sure
how dense the fog will be. For now will hold off on headlines, but
it`s certainly something to keep in the back of the mind.

Next issue is the system headed this way. Current sat pix indicate a
system moving into the intermountain region as of early afternoon.
The models take this system and drop a fair chunk of energy south
towards the Southern Plains tnt. Meanwhile, the rest of the energy
tracks east across the forecast area. H3 progs show a northeastward
moving 80-90kt jet streak will pass nearby, putting the ABR CWA in
the right entrance region overnight. Per soundings, initially there
remains quite a bit of dry air, but the profiles should saturate
nicely as lift overspreads the region. Until saturation and dynamic
cooling occurs, there could be a brief period of light fzra given
shallow warm layer per bufkit soundings. With road temps likely
falling to near or below 32F, did introduce a bit more fzra to the
forecast.

The system should move mostly out of the ABR CWA by mid morning.
Temperatures on Thursday should be on the upward swing, especially
out west where a bit better ll mixing is expected. Winds could be a
bit gusty early in the day, but then should relax.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Wed Dec 12 2018

Not much change from previous forecast iteration in the overall
pattern with the 12Z suite of model guidance. The dominant feature
through most of the extended forecast will be an upper level ridge
in place across the region. This will provide our CWA will tranquil,
quiet weather conditions and mild temperatures for mid December.
Models do prog a weak system to traverse the area during the middle
of the weekend. However, at this point moisture will be limited at
best, so a dry forecast will be maintained. The only impact could be
a slight cool down between Saturday and Sunday. The ridge pops back
up early next week with a return to warmer conditions. Another upper
trough may work through the area the middle of next week, possibly
bringing some precip chances back very late in the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM CST Wed Dec 12 2018

Fog over the KATY region will probably only briefing abate this
afternoon, and then should fill back in this evening and
overnight. Light fog may also develop as far west as KABR.
KPIR/KMBG should have mainly VFR cigs/vsbys through the period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for SDZ020>023.

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for MNZ046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...TDK



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