Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 241126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
526 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020

The main forecast challenge for the short range will be the storm
dropping southeast over the region through Tuesday. Most guidance
now looks relatively agreeable, with the main upper system tracking
a bit further west than originally progged. This puts mainly western
and parts of central South Dakota under the most aggressive waa/lift
during the storm. Some locations over the western CWA could see
upwards of 2 to 4 inches of snow, mainly west river it would appear
based on most CAM and non-CAM solutions. Winds will also increase
some later today and tonight over the west, and that in combination
with the new snow could lead to some blowing/drifting snow. Have
decided to hoist an advisory for the counties bordering the Missouri
River for late today through Tuesday morning to account for the
expected impacts, especially for the Tuesday morning commute. The
snow should gradually spread of over this region by late afternoon,
and then end by noon over the south central portion of the state. The
models have been somewhat consistent with a pesky waa band over
southern ND, and thus started the advisory a bit earlier up north
just in case this band slips into my north central CWA.  As for
temperatures, they should be right around normal for the next couple

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020

The upper air analysis at the start of the long term shows a ridge
over the pacific west region and long wave trough sits over the
plains area or just east. Northwest flow aloft over our region will
lead to colder temperatures for the week. This pattern will set up
bit more active week, with one or 2 shortwaves progged to go through
our region bringing some snow potential. Little to no accumulation
is expected with these small systems. Another warming trend looks to
be on the menu leading into the weekend as our overall pattern
shifts to an upper ridge over the midwest.

Highs for Wed/Thurs range from the mid teens to mid 20s, and for the
weekend we can expect highs to once again get above freezing for
northeastern SD and into the 40s for central SD and areas with
little or no snow pack.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 523 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020

We start this morning with VFR conditions expected through the
region. This afternoon a cold front moves into the area bringing a
mix of rain and snow. MFR and possibly some intermittent IFR cigs
are expected this evening into Tuesday morning. Areas may also see
MVFR visibilities due to falling snow and blowing snow during the
same timeframe.


SD...Winter Weather Advisory from noon CST /11 AM MST/ today to 9 AM
     CST /8 AM MST/ Tuesday for SDZ003-004-009-015-016.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ this afternoon
     to noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for SDZ033>035-045-048.



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