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000
FXUS63 KABR 060848
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
248 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry near term, much above normal temperatures today, Thursday.

- Cooler temperatures, but still mainly above normal late in the
  week into early next week.

- Dry conditions will be the overall trend with only a slight
  chance (15-20%) for light precip Thursday night and again
  Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday Afternoon/...
Issued at 246 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

Mild and dry to continue for the short term. A strong upper ridge
will press into the Northern Plains today and last into Thursday. H5
heights are progged to be some +25 decameters above normal. This
should translate to warm sfc temperatures both today and Thursday,
given some westerly flow in the lower troposphere. NBM 75-90th
percentile looked good for highs both days. Even seasonally cold
biased MAV MOS has highs approaching 60 today! Only caveat to
temps could be fair amount of highs clouds expected today. With a
dry troposphere overhead, there`s little to no chance for pcpn
through Thursday. That will change Thu night as a mid-level trof
approaches from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday Evening through Tuesday/...
Issued at 246 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

Cooler temperatures and mainly dry conditions will be the overall
arching theme in the forecast for this period across our CWA. There
will be some minor bouts of light precip and the potential for a
period of stronger winds, but considering what`s possible this time
of year, it will be relatively quiet. Starting off Thursday night
into Friday, we`ll see a 500mb trough track out of the Northern High
Plains eastward into the Northern Plains. An associated sfc low
pressure system is progged to push across ND and into southern
Canada. A cold front will sweep east and southeast across our
forecast area with winds turning west to northwest and increasing
through the night into Friday. Any precip associated with this wave
looks to be light and mainly confined to our northern zones along
the ND/SD border.

In addition to the increasing winds, cooler temperatures will be
ushered in on a cold air advection pattern that looks to persist
Friday into the beginning of the weekend. Windy conditions will set
up on Thursday night into Friday. Parts of the forecast area could
see gusts in excess of 40mph. The EC Ens indicates highest
probabilities for wind gusts exceeding 40mph will be across the
Prairie Coteau, Leola Hills and portions of north central SD. Sfc
high pressure does eventually nose into the area by the start of the
weekend as we maintain a pretty progressive northwest flow aloft.
Temperatures will definitely be closer to normal for this time of
year. Average high temperatures for this part of December range
from the upper 20s to mid 30s. Our forecast will continue to reflect
daytime readings in the mid 30s to low 40s, a good 5-10 degrees
above normal. The latter portions of the period will also continue
to point to dry conditions persisting. We don`t see any organized
storm systems in the offing that could potentially affect the region
through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. LLWS (low-
level wind shear) potential still forecast in the KMBG region
through the early morning hours and have continued mention of this
in the TAF.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...TMT