Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 201759
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1259 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1034 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

No significant changes to the short term update this morning.
Tweeked pops a bit based on radar and latest model guidance,
otherwise just blending the latest observations in the near short
term.

UPDATE Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

Surface trough is located across central SD early this morning, with
widespread showers and thunderstorms within the axis. CAM solutions
are handling this rather well, and continues to march things
eastward through the morning hours. Therefore, have very high precip
chances in the forecast for the morning and into early afternoon as
things continue to progress eastward. Don`t expect much in the way
of severe weather anymore at this point.

High temperatures today are a bit tricky, much like yesterday.
Clouds and precip will be key in determining how warm eastern areas
of the CWA get, and elsewhere it will be determining how quickly the
clouds depart. For central SD, and even into the James valley,
expect decreasing clouds later today and even some warm air
advection and mixing, especially over central SD. So, still
anticipate a decent warm up today even if temp rises start out slow
this morning. Kept highs cool in the upper 60s across the Coteau
region and into west central MN where clouds and precip are expected
to linger the longest during the late morning and into the afternoon.

Focus will then shift to Friday as we`ll be watching a frontal
boundary cross the CWA. Low level moisture will be on the increase
and models indicate 60 to 65 degree dewpoints setting up over the
eastern CWA. Parameters look decent enough to support severe storm
potential during the afternoon hours in the vicinity of the surface
boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

An upper level trough will be over the western part of the country
at the beginning of the extended period, with several shortwave
impulses tracking up into the Northern Plains Friday night through
the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing when the
Friday evening time period begins, mainly across the eastern part of
the CWA where a frontal boundary will be moving through. Previous
model runs had this area of precipitation moving out fairly quickly
Friday evening, but latest runs hang it back now into at least part
of the overnight period. The instability and shear do weaken during
the evening hours, so expect the severe chances to wane pretty
quickly. The remainder of the period will feature off and on chances
for rain or general thunderstorms, with the most likely period for
dry conditions coming Tuesday and Wednesday. After Friday evening,
the chances for severe weather look pretty slim.

High temperatures will be in the 70s Saturday, Sunday and Monday,
then warmer air returns, with highs in the 80s Tuesday and
Wednesday. Overnight lows will be mainly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

Showers are departing the region this afternoon and we will see a
brief dry period before more storms move in overnight. Current
MVFR cigs in KATY/KABR will lift up during the afternoon and VFR
conditions should persist the rest of today. As the next frontal
system moves in from the west overnight, expect localized MVFR
conditions with any associated storms.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dye
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Dye



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