Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 180859
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
359 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Showers encompass a good part of the CWA south of Highway 212
this morning. There will be a brief period where a shortwave ridge
moves overhead today, mainly across the east, however flow becomes
more diffluent across the west with the approach of a more impressive
shortwave. This feature will generate more widespread convective
shower activity which will develop out west and move east through
the short term period. Profiles are mostly moist adiabatic, however
there are a hundred or two J/KG MUCAPE available so cant rule out a
rumble of thunder. Shear is weak, the profile remains quite warm
with an inch and a half or greater PWATS, and freezing levels above
12-13kft so some more decent moisture totals can be expected with
this system.  It also means the diurnal trends will continue to be
cooler, though more sunshine in the east today will result in highs
in the 70s.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

For the time being, not a whole lot has changed in the out periods,
compared to 24 hours ago. Still thinking the CONUS-wide steering
flow aloft is a rather blocky (low confidence) pattern, highly
subject to model change/variability in the "fine print" details.
Tuesday through Thursday night is spent unraveling the upper level
low embedded in the western CONUS mid/upper level rex block steering
flow pattern. Plenty of precipitation chances pending across the
southwestern/southern third to half of forecast zones.

Then, after a break in the precip chances mainly Friday/Friday night
while mid/upper level heights rise over the region, the next upper
level low that has moved inland off the Pacific Ocean is forecast to
move across the northern plains over the weekend. The passage of
this area of low pressure should bring shower/thunderstorm chances
back to this cwa.

The temperature forecast in the extended looks relatively unchanged
as well. Low level deterministic and ensemble thermal progs continue
to support near climo-normal temperatures Tuesday through Sunday,
while boundary layer winds maintain an easterly or northeasterly
direction for much of the period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

VFR conditions for all terminals. Another shortwave will be
moving into the region on Monday spreading some showers and
thunderstorms into the KPIR and KMBG terminals during the
afternoon and evening hours.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Connelly


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