Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 121712 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1212 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1055 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

No changes planned at this time to the rest of today`s forecast.
Capping warm mid-level (700hpa) waa continues. This should
somewhat limit convective potential later this afternoon and
evening, once the rain-cooled/stable post-MCS boundary layer mixes
out.

UPDATE Issued at 645 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

12z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

Mesoscale convective complex spinning over eastern sd will make its
way east and out of the region this morning. The severe weather
threat has diminished with mainly a heavy rain threat as the storms
move east. Otherwise, skies will become partly cloudy in behind
these storms today. Moist south breezes will continue through today
and Thursday with dew points in the upper 60s to the lower 70s along
with highs in the mid 80s to the mid 90s. The upper level flow over
the region will be from the southwest with several short waves
moving over bringing more chances of showers and storms into
Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

The long term features a large upper level low pressure area over
western Canada with a trough extending into the Pacific Northwest
along with a large high pressure area over the southwest U.S.  As we
move through the long term, the upper low pressure area in Canada
will move slowly east and into the Hudsons Bay region by Tuesday
next week. The low pressure troughing extending south from this will
move along the northern U.S. and across the northern plains Friday
and Friday night bringing a cool down. Upper level riding will then
build over the western U.S. and into western Canada into early next
week. Therefore, we will stay on the eastern side of this ridge with
cooler northwest flow Saturday through Tuesday with mainly below
normal temperatures for highs. There will be a few chances of storms
from Thursday night into Saturday. Otherwise, the Saturday night
through Tuesday period looks dry with cooler canadian air moving in.
Highs for Friday and Saturday will be in the 80s, cooling into the
mid 70s to the lower 80s for Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Still dealing with a little bit of post-MCS stratus over far
northeast South Dakota, that has spread over to the KATY
terminal, early this afternoon. Once that stratus mixes out, all
four terminals should be into good VFR during the TAF valid
period.

***Construction to improve taxiways at both KABR/KPIR terminals
may cause an occasional temporary visibility reduction due
to blowing dust (bldu), mainly during daytime hours UFN.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Dorn



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