Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 311931
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
331 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough will persist over our area through Wednesday
morning as a low moves northeastward from the Southeast United
States to the Atlantic Ocean. High pressure then builds from the
west and north later Wednesday through Thursday. This high pressure
ridge remains in control through most of Saturday as the ridge moves
eastward. A weak cold front should drift eastward through northern
Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Multiple shortwave troughs traverse our CWA from the west and
northwest through tonight as a mid- to upper-level low meanders in
vicinity of New England. At the surface, a trough persists over the
eastern Great Lakes and our CWA as a deepening low tracks from the
Southeast United States to Atlantic waters just east of Cape
Hatteras. Abundant cloud cover, including a stratocumulus cloud
deck, persists over our CWA. Occasional light rain is possible,
especially late this evening through the predawn hours of tomorrow
morning. During this period, nocturnal cooling should allow the
stratocumulus deck to expand and become more efficient at producing
light rain via the collision coalescence process or perhaps the
seeder-feeder process given the expectation of passing mid- and
upper-level cloud cover. A few wet snowflakes may mix with the rain,
but no snow accumulation is expected. Any measurable rainfall
amounts should be a few hundredths of an inch at most. Patchy mixing
fog could develop where light rain manages to be more persistent.
Northwest PA and far-northeast OH appear to be the preferred area
for fog formation. Low temperatures should reach the mid to upper
30`s around daybreak Wednesday.

Northwesterly flow aloft resides over our CWA Wednesday and
Wednesday night as the aforementioned low begins to move away from
New England and a mid- to upper-level high pressure ridge builds
from the west. At the surface, the trough lingers over our CWA
Wednesday morning and will be followed by high pressure building
from the north and west later Wednesday and Wednesday night.
This building high will allow our skies to clear gradually.
Spotty light rain showers or drizzle may continue through late
Wednesday morning with no measurable rainfall expected.
Otherwise, fair weather will occur. Any patchy fog should
disappear by late Wednesday morning as diurnal warming occurs.
Wednesday afternoon highs are forecast to reach the mid 40`s to
lower 50`s, with the coolest readings along and near the
lakeshore due to an onshore flow off cool Lake Erie. Wednesday
night low temperatures should dip into the upper 20`s to mid
30`s, with the coolest readings expected in interior northwest
PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A slow warming trend will take place through the end of the
week. A ridge and surface high pressure will slowly shift across
the region during this time. With the nigh situated to our
north, the warmup will be gradual with the northerly flow. By
Saturday that ridge will begin to break down with shortwave
energy from the northern Rockies making its way to the upper
Great Lakes. Will see winds veer to the south-southeast and
temperatures warm into the mid 60s inland. The shore will still
be susceptible to a lake breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The ridge breaks down for Saturday night with a weakening cold
front approaching from the west. Have straddled precipitation
chances between Saturday night and Sunday, but it will likely
fall on just one of those periods and be scattered. High
pressure, passing just north of the area, is in place for
Monday. Again, the northerly flow will keep it cooler near the
lake, but there will not be much of an airmass change so we will
keep 60s inland Sunday and Monday. A touch warmer on Tuesday as
the high shifts east. Precip chances on Monday into Tuesday
somewhat uncertain as guidance is indicating some degree of
shortwave energy topping the ridge that is centered on the Ohio
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Abundant cloud cover is expected over our region through the
TAF period as a strengthening surface low moves northeastward
from near northern GA to Atlantic waters well east of Cape
Hatteras. Simultaneously, a high pressure ridge will build
slowly over our region from the north and west. Widespread MVFR
to IFR ceilings are expected as a stratocumulus cloud deck
persists over northern OH and northwest PA. However, partial
clearing of this cloud deck and a return to VFR are possible
over northwest PA and far-northeast OH after 12Z/Wed. In the
meantime, occasional light rain may occur through about 14Z/Wed.
Patchy fog may form between 03Z and 14Z/Wed, but confidence
remains low. Surface winds should trend northerly to
northeasterly at about 5 to 10 knots.

.OUTLOOK...Non-VFR ceilings may persist Wednesday afternoon and
early evening, especially west of a KERI to KYNG line.
Otherwise, non-VFR are possible in scattered rain showers
Saturday through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light northerly flow will be predominate through Friday as high
pressure from the western Great Lakes to the eastern lakes. Winds
may pick up some late Tuesday night/early Wednesday enough to make
the central and eastern nearshore waters choppy. Over the weekend a
weakening cold front will cross the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Oudeman


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