Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 050153
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
953 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drift eastward into the mid-Atlantic States
tonight as a low pressure trough persists over the eastern Great
Lakes. High pressure to the west will gradually build east over
the region Wednesday night and persist into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Most showers have cleared out of the area and temperatures have
dropped into the mid 60s for most locations. The environment
over Lake Erie still remains unstable and capable of producing
showers and a few thunderstorms into the early overnight hours.
Some recent showers and storms have moved inland over the last
couple hours and impacted the lakeshore counties. No widespread
shower activity is expected. The remainder of the forecast for
the near term remains unchanged with this update.

Previous Discussion...
Convection over the east half the CWA will continue to move
east and diminish toward evening as drier air slowly filters
into the region from the west. Drier more stable air will
gradually move east but recent rain may allow ground fog to form
in the inland locations along and south of US-30 toward
morning. Meanwhile a surface pressure trough will persist across
Lake Erie and lake induced instability will remain rather high
with SBCAPE over 1000 J/KG given the rather warm lake waters in
the 76-77 degree range. So we can expected more banded showers
and perhaps isolated thunderstorms to develop from near the
islands east toward Cleveland and Erie, PA which will persist
into Wednesday morning and then gradually diminish. Conditions
seem primed for waterspout development.

Cooler overnight lows in the 50s inland to near 60 along the
lake are expected.

High pressure will build into the region later Wednesday and
Wednesday and produce clearing conditions with lower humidity.
With 850 mb temperatures only from 9-10C max temperatures on
Wednesday will be in the 70-75 degree range. Lows on Wednesday
night will be in the 50s in most locations with fair conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An upper-level trough lingers over the Great Lakes region through
the short term period with surface high pressure high as well. This
will result in little to no chance for precipitation with slightly
cooler to near normal temperatures expected. High temperatures will
be in upper 70s to low 80s with low temperatures in the upper 50s to
low 60s. Dew points less than 60s and mostly sunny skies will really
solidify Thursday and Friday as very pleasant days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The pattern becomes less amplified through the long term with long
range models depicting several short wave troughs impacting the
region Sunday through Tuesday. Surface high pressure begins
departing the region on Saturday and Sunday with warm, moist air
building back into the region over the weekend. Precipitation
chances arrive by Sunday though it`s a little ambiguous as to when
the best chance for rain is due to more subtle features being
responsible for precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Current radar indicates scattered showers across the eastern
portion of the area, impacting YNG, CLE, and ERI. These showers
have a history of producing MVFR ceilings and visibilities, but
are expected to become less widespread as the evening
progresses.

VFR conditions are expected to persist across much
of the area during the TAF period. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible for ERI and CLE during the first half
of the period. During these events, visibilites and ceilings
will likely drop to MVFR conditions, and possibly IFR conditions
at times. Overnight tonight, fog/low stratus is expected to form
for the inland TAF sites, primarily MFD and CAK between 9Z-12Z.
YNG may also see some fog development but will depend on shower
development along the lakeshore. Winds will be light and
variable through the period.

Outlook...Non-VFR in scattered showers and storms on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
An upper-level trough will move across the lower Great Lakes
tonight, increasing the chance for waterspouts, particularly
overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. Simultaneously, northwest
winds of around 15 knots will develop this evening into tonight,
with favorable northwest flow producing waves up to 5 feet. For this
reason, will do a Small Craft Advisory for a few hours this evening
into tonight. High pressure begins building in with mostly light
winds expected on Wednesday evening through all of Thursday. Wind
direction becomes predominantly northeast Thursday night through
Saturday, though expected to remain at 10 knots or less.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for OHZ012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LaPlante
NEAR TERM...Campbell/LaPlante
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...Saunders



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