770
FXUS61 KCLE 210203
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1003 PM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level trough exits this evening. High pressure briefly
Friday before another cold front comes through Friday night.
High pressure late Saturday through Sunday, and yet another cold
front Sunday night. Temperatures on the cooler side through the
period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Overall, no major changes to the forecast at this time.
Snow/rain is moving out and clearing conditions are starting to
encroach into Northwest Ohio and over Lake Erie.

630 PM Update...
Overall, the flavor of the forecast remains the same for this
evening. Some scattered rain/snow showers continue across the
forecast area, although have gone with a heavier hand of a snow
mention as there are plenty of wet snowflakes being reported at
regional observation sites. The back edge of precipitation has
reached Northwest Ohio and will continue east through the
evening hours and expect most areas to be dry shortly after
Midnight. Temperatures remain on track.

Previous Discussion...
Upper level trough swinging through the southern Great Lakes with
low topped convection firing off in the cold pool and along a
surface trough pushing into northwest Ohio, aided by about 150mb of
elevated CAPE. CAPE less than 100J/kg, but just enough for the
cellular convection across the region. The cold air advection is
continuing with falling daytime temperatures and 30s now entering
the picture in northwest Ohio. Should still be a few hours before
any of the precipitation changes over to a rain/snow mix or snow
showers tonight for the eastern half of the CWA. System is a quick
mover, and once it exits east of the CWA, should get a brief period
of enhancement off Lake Erie in resultant low level northwest flow
and continued cold air advection...for a short period of time. But
after 03Z Friday, will already see 850mb warm air advection in the
western zones, and trailing that will be a shift in the low level
winds to the southwest by Friday morning. With all of these factors
into consideration, shutting down the POPs after 03Z tonight.
Expecting about a half inch of snow maximum, relegated to inland
areas of NW PA, and just a coating further west into far NE OH.
Surface ridging influences from the south arrive after 09Z Friday,
and will have a shelf life in our CWA for about 15-18 hours before
the next cold front will be on the doorstep Friday night. Shower
chances on the increase with this front as the boundary strengthens
on its way through the eastern CWA. Should be all rain with upper
30s Friday night after upper 40s to lower 50s across the area
earlier in the day Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough will be moving through the region Saturday
dragging a surface cold front along with it. Majority of the
precipitation will have moved out of the western half of the CWA by
midday Saturday, leaving scattered showers across the eastern half
for the remainder of the day. With limited moisture and lack of
support, not expecting any substantial accumulation. Behind the cold
front with the colder northwesterly flow, there may be some
lingering showers that could be in the form of a rain/snow mix for
the far eastern counties of OH and northwestern PA. High pressure
will build in Saturday night from the west and could see a break in
the cloud cover, though we won`t get to enjoy sunshine for much of
Sunday as the next low pressure system enters the region that
afternoon. Models have been in good agreement that there will be
good moisture advection so there qpf will range from a quarter inch
to a half inch Sunday evening through Monday morning.

Temperatures on Saturday will fall throughout the day, with the high
being during the early morning hours. It`ll start out in the 40s and
drop down into the mid 20s overnight into Sunday. On Sunday,
temperatures should rebound into the low 50s, upper 40s underneath
high pressure and WAA then drop into the upper 30s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Monday will start off breezy behind the departing cold front and low
pressure system from the night before, then diminish into the
overnight hours. There could be some lingering showers across the
northern counties as flow will become westerly to northwesterly. The
upper level trough will be slow to depart to the east and will be
influencing the region through the middle of the week. With that,
there is quite a bit of disagreement among the models regarding the
speed the trough departs and the location of surface lows during the
middle of the week. We should expect precipitation at some, so kept
the low end PoPs for that time period. Temperatures are expected to
be around normal for the week, with highs in the mid to upper 40s
and overnight lows in the low 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Most aviation weather concerns will be in the first several
hours of the forecast with low ceilings and a mix of rain and
snow moving through the region. Some small pockets of IFR have
developed, but these will be very short-lived over the next hour
or two. Otherwise, MVFR is across most of the airspace with the
back edge in Northwest Ohio, where the back edge of
precipitation continues east across the area. Believe that MVFR
and rain/snow will largely taper off shortly after Midnight.
Northwest winds with gusts to 25 kts will continue over the
next several hours with the system moving through the region. A
ridge will build from the west tonight allowing for clearing
conditions and diminishing winds with backing flow to the west
then southwest. Some high clouds will move in late in the TAF
period ahead of the next system.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain showers Friday night into
Saturday. Non-VFR likely in widespread rain late Sunday into
Monday. Non-VFR is possible in lingering rain and/or snow
showers Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until Friday at 10 AM as
the low pressure continues to push eastward across the Great Lakes
into Ontario. Winds will continue to increase behind the departing
low and become northwesterly at 20-25 knots with waves building to 4-
8 feet. Conditions will begin to improve as high pressure builds in
over the region during the day Friday.

Winds will shift around the high pressure and become south-
southwesterly on Friday at 15-25 knots. Another cold front and low
pressure system are expected to traverse the region and cross Lake
Erie Saturday morning and the winds will veer to the northwest as a
response behind the passing cold front. There is the potential for a
Small Craft Advisory for Saturday for the western two-thirds of the
nearshore. Winds will diminish overnight into Sunday as a high
pressure briefly builds in and become easterly. Another system will
cross the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday and winds will veer
to the west and increase to 15-25 knots, warranting the potential
for another Small Craft Advisory. Winds will again diminish to 10-20
knots behind the departing low pressure early Tuesday morning..

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for LEZ142>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...23