000
FXUS61 KCLE 051342
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
942 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will move south across the Great Lakes late Monday
night into Tuesday. High pressure Tuesday night through the end
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
940 AM Update...
Slight adjustments were made to the temperatures as lingering
clouds have resulted in a delay in the heating for the day.
Other than that, the remainder of the forecast is on track for
the day.

635 AM Update...
Clouds from shortwave aloft rolling through north to south. Clearing
this afternoon with the potential for smoke aloft from eastern
Canada wildfires.

Previous Discussion...
North to south moving 500mb trough axis/PVA brings brief cloud cover
this morning, but dry due to continued lack of low/mid level
moisture. Longwave pattern aloft persists with the upper low off the
New England coast characteristic of slightly below normal
temperatures for the eastern CWA and the aforementioned lack of
column humidity. Weak cold front late Monday night into Tuesday with
a strengthening deformation zone might be able to trigger isolated
convection just south of the CWA Tuesday upon exit.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Generally quiet weather is expected through the short term period
with weak high pressure influencing much of the weather pattern
across the Lower Great Lakes region. A weak surface trough resulting
from an upper level low across New England will extend west across
northern OH on Thursday, though the forecast low-level moisture
fields do not appear favorable for anything other than a few light
rain showers across NW PA.

Otherwise, temperatures will be near to slightly below average with
daily highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the upper 40s to
lower 50s for both Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Quiet and dry weather will continue for the first half of the long
term period as weak surface high pressure continues to influence the
weather pattern across the Great Lakes region. By Sunday, an upper
level trough will sweep southeast across the Great Lakes, extending
a cold front south across the area. Low-level moisture fields aren`t
too impressive by June standards as surface dew points will struggle
to even reach 60F. Nonetheless, the forcing from the upper level
trough and surface cold front should be enough for scattered showers
and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms to develop Sunday afternoon
and evening. Unfortunately, this system will not be a drought
buster, with the quick-advancing front only expected to bring light
to moderate amounts of rainfall across the region.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal on Friday,
increasing to above normal into the 80s ahead of the front on
Saturday, then falling back to near normal in the 70s on Sunday
behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR, but will have some ceilings around FL050-070 this morning
with a disturbance aloft passing through north to south. Winds
under 12kts through the period. Some smoke issues possible
registering as sky cover between FL050-FL200 from wildfires in
eastern Canada. Still going without any visibility restrictions
today from aforementioned wildfire smoke that may advect in near
the surface.

Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet marine conditions are expected through Tuesday with generally
light flow 10 knots or less anticipated across Lake Erie. By Tuesday
night, a cold front will move south across the Lake, ushering in
northerly flow of 15 to 20 knots, especially along the central
basin. Will need to monitor wind and wave trends for potential
headlines. Following the frontal passage, generally northerly flow of
10 to 15 knots will persist for Wednesday and Thursday, though there
could be isolated instances of winds 15 to 20 knots. Lighter winds
of 10 knots or less will return for Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...Campbell/26
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...26
MARINE...Kahn