Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 030230
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
930 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to move east through this evening. A low
pressure system will move southeast across Ontario Tuesday night
into Wednesday, extending a cold front south across the area late
Wednesday. A weak trough will linger over the eastern Great Lakes
into Thursday morning before high pressure returns Thursday night
into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
No changes made with this update. Forecast is still on track.

Original Discussion...
Quiet near term period with sunny skies expected through sunset
and clear skies overnight. A weak cold front will move south
across the area Wednesday afternoon and evening.

As high pressure begins to move east through the rest of today, the
pressure gradient will tighten between the departing high and an
approaching low pressure system across Ontario, allowing winds to
increase to around 15 to 20 mph this evening through tomorrow
morning. This should prevent efficient radiative cooling as the
boundary layer remains mixed and have kept temperatures overnight
slightly warmer as a result.

As mentioned above, a low pressure system will move southeast across
Ontario on Wednesday, extending a weak cold front south across the
area by Wednesday afternoon and evening. Any precipitation that
reaches the ground should start out as a rain/snow mix, becoming all
snow by Wednesday night. The best chance for precipitation to reach
the ground appears to be in NW PA where low-level moisture is
slightly better. Any snow that falls will be very light given a lack
of moisture within the DGZ. High temperatures on Wednesday will be
early in the afternoon before the cold front moves through. Looking
at upper 40s to 50 across much of the area with perhaps some lower
50s along and south of US-30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The region will be in a northwest flow aloft with an upper level
trough to the east of the Great Lakes on Thursday. High pressure
will be building down from Ontario across the Great Lakes with a
northerly surface flow and cold air advection. There will be
considerable lake effect clouds on Thursday with slow clearing by
late in the afternoon as drier air filters in. Model guidance
indicate there could be a few scattered lake effect snow showers or
flurries for the Snowbelt region early on Thursday before tapering
off. Clearing skies Thursday night into Friday morning will allow
temperatures to fall down into the upper teens to lower 20s across
the area. Temperatures both Thursday and Friday will be below
average with highs only in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The deep northwesterly to northerly flow aloft will continue into
weekend with high pressure near the Midwest. This low level flow
will continue cold air advection for the weekend. We will see
another shortwave in the upper level flow move across the eastern
Great Lakes on Saturday which may bring additional lake effect
clouds. It will continue to remain chilly with highs only in the 30s
to lower 40s. Upper level ridging and height rises begin to increase
late Sunday into Monday along with a southerly flow on the backside
of high pressure. Temperatures will climb slowly early next week,
eventually seeing highs in the 50s or slightly higher.  Mostly dry
weather is expected this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR is being observed across the TAF sites this evening with
clear skies. VFR conditions are expected to continue through
early Wednesday afternoon. A weak cold front will move south
across Lake Erie Wednesday evening, resulting in some MVFR
ceilings across TAF sites such as KERI and KCLE.

South to southwest winds of around 10 knots with gusts of 15 to
20 knots possible through the overnight period and into
Wednesday morning. Winds will become northwest by Wednesday
afternoon/evening.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR possible with snow showers Wednesday
night through Thursday for Northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will move off the Mid-Atlantic region tonight with
southwest winds increasing over the lake 15 to 20 knots. A cold
front will cross the lake late on Wednesday with a wind shift from a
northwesterly wind 10 to 15 knots by Wednesday night. Northerly
winds up to 15 knots will continue on Thursday with a gradual shift
from northwesterly by Friday and Saturday. High pressure will be
near the lake on Sunday with light and variable winds.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Griffin



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