Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 202003
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
403 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An broad area of low pressure will move across the area tonight.
This feature will move into New England and strengthen on
Friday where it will continue to influence the local weather.
High pressure will build in over the weekend.



&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rain associated with the first of two upper level shortwaves is
making its way across Indiana at this hour. Radar returns are
not representative of rainfall as dry sub-cloud layer is
preventing most of it from reaching the ground. This spotty
precipitation will fill in more tonight as a second wave dips
south from the upper lakes and phases with the first wave. This
trough will arrive later tonight with a track going west to
east across Lake Erie. This relatively weak system is progged to
arrive a few hours later than earlier forecasts, and further
south. The best chance for rain will occur after midnight though
rainfall rates will be mainly light especially as that dry sub-
cloud layer erodes. Tonight as the wave closes off we could see
a period of moderate rain as the deformation zone slides in
from the west, mainly between 06-10Z. P-type should remain all
rain due to limited moisture in the dendritic zone. However,
could see a period of seeding aloft towards daybreak which could
bring a brief mix of rain and snow.

As the shortwave pulls out Thursday the main precip shield will
shift east. However low level moisture trapped beneath the
inversion could keep a low stratus deck with some light
rain/drizzle through at least midday. Temperatures will likely
struggle to warm into the middle 40s. There will be a brief
period of breaks in the clouds, mainly in the west, by the
afternoon/evening. Then a secondary shortwave will rotate
around the upper level trough bringing moisture back into the
area. This again will be limited on ice crystal growth which
will favor rain initially. Believe that evaporative cooling and
lowering thicknesses will favor a transition over to rain-snow
mix after midnight, and then all snow around daybreak.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will be on our doorstep Friday morning as a piece of
upper level energy dives south out of Canada towards the Great Lakes
Region. Moisture depth will increase through the day as the upper
level low swings across NE Ohio on its way towards Pennsylvania/New
York. We expect to see precipitation blossom on Friday as the cold
pool at 500mb moves overhead with likely pops or better east of I-77
and chance pops to the west. Precip type will likely be a wet snow
in far NE Ohio and NW PA but the rest of the area may see a
rain/snow mix as surface temperatures climb towards the mid to upper
30s. Warm ground temperatures and unfavorable daytime timing will be
a limiting factor for accumulations but could see and an inch or two
in NW PA, mainly over the higher areas.

Deeper moisture quickly pulls away Friday night as high pressure
builds overhead. Did delay the clearing trend as lake effect clouds
will linger through much of the night but even these should
dissipate on Saturday morning. Made corresponding changes to Friday
night mins, raising temperatures in the east and lowering in the
west where clearing should occur quickly. Mostly clear skies
expected Saturday and into the first part of the day on Sunday.
Saturday may feel warmer than expected with mostly sunny skies and
light winds. Southwest flow develops by Sunday with temperatures in
the upper 40s to low 50s.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper trough will linger over eastern Canada into the first part of
next week. We are watching models try to resolve energy moving out
of the Plains to the south of the trough to determine chances of
precipitation Sunday night into Monday. The GFS remains the farthest
north with a wave of low pressure tracking east through the Ohio
Valley on Monday while the other long range models show the surface
high overhead and the low passing far enough to the south that any
precipitation is minimal. For now have made few changes to the
forecast with a low chance of rain/snow Sunday night and Monday.
Temperatures drop back to near normal Monday followed by below
normal temperatures with low level cold advection on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Clouds will overspread the area from the west this afternoon.
Areas of mainly light rain will likewise move in from west to
east starting this evening through the overnight. The rain
should diminish in coverage after daybreak tomorrow, however
with the passage of a cold front a low stratus deck is expected
with ceilings between 800-1,500 feet. At this time, it appears
any visibility restrictions will be brief and localized in
nature. Otherwise, ceilings generally in the 035-050 range
expected tonight with MVFR ceilings after midnight. Surface
winds 190-210 degrees at 10-14 kts this afternoon, with
occasional surface gusts 18-22 kts possible surface winds
veering to 300 degrees post frontal Thursday morning.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR conditions persisting in light rain into
Thursday. NON-VFR possible again Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak area of low pressure will move southeast across Lake Erie
overnight with a second trough and associated cold front moving
south across the lake Friday. Winds are expected to be 15 knots or
less until Friday when winds shift to the northwest and increase to
20-30 knots. This will lead to waves building to 5 to 7 feet where
the lake is ice free. Winds will remain above 20 knots on portions
of Lake Erie through Friday night. Better marine conditions expected
over the weekend as high pressure builds southeast across the Great
Lakes Region.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Jamison
NEAR TERM...Jamison
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Jamison
MARINE...KEC


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