Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 211729
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1229 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the northern Plains will gradually shift
eastward reaching central Ohio later today and evening. The
high will shift to the east coast by Wednesday night. The next
area of low pressure will attempt to develop near the Gulf Coast
States on Thursday and may move to near the Ohio River Valley
Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Noon Update...Snow flurries continue just east of Cleveland to
the Ashtabula County line and near the Youngstown area. These
snow showers are forecast to end in the next few hours. Little
to no snow accumulation is expected. Otherwise...forecast looks
on track...with continued clearing skies...except along the
lake shore.

.Previous Discussion...A light northwest surface flow from the
surface to 850 mb continues to move over the eastern Great Lakes
including Lake Erie. There has been a slight increase in
moisture at 925 mb and that flow is currently moving across the
lakeshore this morning with a little more cloud cover and an
uptick of scattered lake effect snow showers and flurries. 850
mb temperatures remain between -10C to -13C.

The CLE radar has show a slight increase in radar of light snow
showers moving in from Lake Erie. We think this will continue
through early to mid morning before tapering off again as the
flow shift to more westerly later this morning or midday. As the
center of the high pressure system moves toward to Ohio River
Valley later today, the surface flow will become more
southwesterly and move any left over LES snow showers to the
northeast. We could see an additional dusting o maybe a localize
inch with the scattered snow showers this morning for the
primary and secondary Snowbelts, especially the higher terrain.
Otherwise lake effect clouds and cold temperatures will remain
for most of today with some partial clearing from the southwest
late.

Another cold night is on tap for tonight with temperatures
falling into the middle and upper teens. The coldest
temperatures will be in the lower teens where the deeper
snowpack and any clearing occurs. Southerly winds return on
Wednesday with a slow moderation in temperatures. We will see
afternoon readings back in the middle to upper 30s with some sun
and passing clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridging will take place across the area and it will then
shift east by Friday. The upper level ridge will force a surface
high pressure to move east across the area and then east of the
region by the end of the period. Deep upper level low pressure
system will move into the Ohio Valley by Friday night. This low will
become vertically stacked with a surface low as they move to Lake
Erie by Saturday morning. Weak warm air advection will take place
Thursday and Friday.  Then, as surface low pressure wraps an
occluded front around and into the forecast area, cold air advection
will return to the region.  As the whole low pressure system
deepens,  it will begin to tap moisture out of the southeast
Atlantic states Friday night.  This moisture will begin to stream
north into the forecast area resulting in a threat for precipitation
Thursday night through Friday night.  Temperatures should be warm
enough to support mostly rain but will then become mixed with snow
by Friday night as colder air begins to push into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Deep vertically stacked upper level low pressure system and
resultant surface low pressure system will move east of the area to
the New England coast by Sunday morning. Cold air advection will
wrap around the back side of the storm system.  An upper level ridge
will move southeast into the area Sunday night into Monday followed
by a shortwave trough.  A surface ridge will build northeast across
the area during the latter half of the period and begin to set up a
return southwest flow and warm air advection into the area.
Precipitation in the form of rain/snow will exit to the east and as
cold air advection returns, the precipitation will return back to
snow Saturday night. Eventually, residual lake effect is expected
over the eastern portions of the area Sunday into Sunday night. Fair
weather returns for Monday.  Temperatures will start out in the
lower 40s for highs cooling down into the 30s over the weekend with
some slight warming Monday.  The air mass does not appear to be as
cold as the current air mass at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Light snow showers are expected to continue around KYNG through
21z. Otherwise...MVFR cigs through the 00z to 03z for most
terminals...except KTOL where skies should remain VFR.
Otherwise...mainly light westerly winds through the forecast.

.OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Thursday night into Friday in light
snow.

&&

.MARINE...
There is the possibility for strong enough winds to support a
minimal small craft advisory this evening that will be short lived.
Otherwise, generally light and variable winds are expected across
the lake through Friday.  As surface low pressure moves east across
the area Saturday, winds will become easterly and could strengthen
enough to support small craft advisories at that time.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Riley
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Riley
MARINE...Kahn


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