Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 171939
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
339 PM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect showers will continue over northeast Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania through early Monday. High pressure
dominates through Wednesday in a slow warming trend. The next low
pressure system and cold front will push through late Wednesday
night pr early Thursday.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
It has been quite an exciting day near the lakeshore with
multiple rounds of waterspouts sighted around the Cleveland
metro area including the west side and east side lakeshore
communities. The weather will calm down as we head into the
early evening with the loss of daytime heating and instability.
Lake effect clouds and a few scattered showers will continue
into the overnight for areas of far NE Ohio into NW
Pennsylvania. These lake effect showers will decrease for NW PA
but early Monday morning as the 850 mb temperatures actually
begin to increase some tonight. The lake effect weather machine will
be cut off by late tonight.

Monday promises to be a much better day with sunshine for more
areas unlike the extra cloud cover we saw today. Coolest
temperatures by early Monday morning will be away from the
lakeshore in the lower to middle 40s. Lakeshore areas will start
out in the lower to middle 50s. Monday`s high temps will climb
into the lower to middle 60s for northern Ohio and may not get
out of the 50s for inland NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
With high pressure lingering over the area through Wednesday
afternoon, quiet and pleasant conditions will continue. Mostly sunny
skies are expected with high temperatures in the upper 60s to low
70s. Temperatures overnight Tuesday will be in the upper 40s to low
50s. By Wednesday evening, low pressure moving east out of the
central Plains will begin to impact the Great Lakes region. Areas of
upper level vorticity and upper level divergence may allow for
showers to sneak in ahead of the cold front, impacting primarily the
NW OH counties Wednesday evening. Overnight, the cold front will
move east across the area, bringing widespread showers and the
isolated chance of overnight thunderstorms. Overnight lows will be a
bit warmer Wednesday night due to cloud cover, only dropping into
the mid to upper 50s.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The aforementioned cold front will be making its way across the area
Thursday  morning, keeping widespread showers in the area. By
Thursday evening, the cold front should move east of the area,
leaving behind a cool and cloudy pattern into the weekend. Winds
will also become northwesterly across the area, allowing for ample
CAA southeast across Lake Erie and resultant lake effect rain
showers for NE OH and NW PA. Exact coverage and duration of these
lake effect remains uncertain, but have opted to keep it through at
least Friday. An extensive cloud deck will keep temperatures rather
cool with highs on Friday through Sunday only reaching into the 50s.
Overnight lows will be in the low 40s, possibly reaching into the
upper Saturday night. Saturday night low temperatures will need to
be monitored for the potential of frost with the anticipated arrival
of cooler air and the general calm winds across the area. Another
shortwave trough approaches the area on Sunday, but overall timing
should allow for much of Sunday to remain dry.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Generally VFR conditions are expected for all TAF sites through
this TAF period. There are some lingering lake effect clouds and
bands of showers between CLE and ERI. Under these bands of
showers, there could localized and brief drops in visibilities
and ceilings. At this time, do not think it will directly impact
any of the TAF sites this afternoon or evening. The lake effect
clouds and showers will decrease later this evening. Skies will
clear out as well to fair weather conditions and continue VFR.
Winds will be west-northwest 8 to 12 knots with a few gusts this
afternoon up to 20 knots closer to the lakeshore. Winds will
relax to 5 to 8 knots after sunset this evening through Monday
morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers Wednesday night/Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine conditions across Lake Erie will remain hazardous through
Monday afternoon. Northwest winds of 20-25 knots will continue
across lake lake, allowing waves to build to 4-6 feet, locally
higher. The threat of waterspouts also continues through this
evening as ample cold air advection has allowed for quite a bit of
instability over the lake and resultant lake effect rain showers.
Winds will begin to weaken on Monday as high pressure begins to
build north into the area, becoming westerly at 5-10 knots, possibly
up to 15 knots in the eastern basin. These winds will persist
through Wednesday before shifting to northwesterly at 5-10 knots
behind a cold front that moves east across the lake on Thursday.
These conditions will persist through the weekend. This late week
system will need to continue to be monitored, particularly for the
potential of waterspouts again behind the departing front.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for LEZ146>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142-
     143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for LEZ144-145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Campbell


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