Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 161123
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
523 AM MDT Mon May 16 2022
...Update for 12Z TAF Cycle...
.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevailing along the International Border today,
with smoke impacts causing visibility issues along the Rio Grande
Valley and further north. Southwest flow aloft returns today,
allowing for a slight increase in surface winds 210-240 at 12-18KT
this afternoon with gust potential up to 25 knots in the evening.
Winds veering to 270-300 at 05-10KT overnight. Skies generally
FEW-SCT150, with TCU development eastward over Sacramento
Mountains and Hudspeth County this afternoon. HRRR model runs
keeping smoke impacts limited to central NM today, but smoke
settling into the valley will likely reduce overnight VIS at KTCS
tonight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...301 AM MDT Mon May 16 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry conditions will prevail for the balance of the week
ahead. There will be a little moisture over the far eastern areas
today that could spark an isolated storm or two. Dry lightning
looks to be the biggest threat with this activity. Meanwhile some
heat relief will come our way next weekend as a back door front
ushers in a little moisture from the east. This could result in a
few more isolated showers and storm east of the Rio Grande by
Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight...
Surface observations this morning confirm the brief intrusion of
a moisture boundary from the east today, which models push as far
west as the Sacramento Mountains and Hudspeth County by sunrise.
Dewpoints in the lower 30`s should be enough for a few isolated
showers and thunderstorms along the eastern fringes of the CWA
this afternoon, quickly moving east and out of the area. No
precipitation is expected west of the US-54 corridor and any
storms that do form east of there will be low-QPF/dry lightning
producers.
Upper ridge shifts eastward today allowing more consistent
southwesterly flow aloft to return. Winds will be a bit stronger
this afternoon in response to lee surface low formation over
central New Mexico. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph will be most
common. Temperatures remain well above normal, threatening a few
daily record highs. Lowland temperatures in the upper 90`s are
most likely, with another shot at our first 100 for El Paso.
Current NBM probabilistic chance of meeting or exceeding 100F in
El Paso is 30%, which would be a daily record.
&&
.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday...
A progressive zonal pattern aloft looks to remain in place
through the end of the week. Thanks to a couple of embedded
shortwaves, the region will manage to stay below the century mark
through the extended, but should still see temps several degrees
above normal. This type of pattern will also result in typically
breezy afternoons across the area as deep mixing occurs daily. By
Friday a deeper longwave trough will begin to take shape over the
intermountain west. This will likely make Friday our windiest day
of the week as advisory level wind speeds may come into play.
Meanwhile it looks like dry conditions will be the norm for the
next several days.
As this upper trough lifts into the plains states, it will help
push a back door cold front into the region Saturday. Models have
hinted at this the past couple of days, but are starting to come
into somewhat better alignment. Temps should cool back to near
normal for all but the far western zones Saturday as easterly flow
behind the front also ushers in higher dewpoint temps.
Sunday looks to be the day that best favors some sort of
precipitation for the region. Another long wave trough will be
taking shape over the four corners by late weekend. This will turn
the upper flow back around to the southwest. Meanwhile a renewed
east surface push Saturday night and early sunday could result in
dew points close to 50 degrees east of the Rio Grande. While the
southwesterly flow aloft will certainly push this moisture out of
the region quickly by Monday of next week, there will be a decent
chance for a few showers and thunderstorms Sunday across eastern
zones where the better moisture will reside.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Exceptionally dry weather continues today across southwest New
Mexico. Moisture boundary will nudge into Lincoln National Forest
and Sacramento Mountains this morning, allowing for a brief chance
for isolated thunderstorms and higher risk of dry lightning
starts this afternoon. Elsewhere, RH 2-5% with very poor overnight
recoveries. Increasing southwest winds will put the region back
into elevated fire danger, with 20-ft winds 10 to 15 mph resulting
in Excellent afternoon smoke ventilation. Smoke impacts from the
ongoing Black Fire in the Gila East Fork will be mostly limited to
Socorro and Sierra Counties.
Continued dry weather under breezy west winds will maintain the
ongoing pattern of elevated fire danger. No Red Flag headlines are
expected until Thursday as winds remain just below critical
thresholds, increasing further late this week. Single-digit RH
values will remain with ERC values approaching record dryness for
local fuels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 100 67 96 67 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 95 64 90 61 / 10 10 0 0
Las Cruces 99 61 95 60 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 98 59 94 59 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 74 49 70 49 / 20 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 97 60 94 61 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 87 57 84 57 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 97 54 93 55 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 94 55 91 55 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 99 67 95 66 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 99 57 95 56 / 10 10 0 0
Fort Hancock 102 62 97 61 / 10 10 0 0
Loma Linda 92 62 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 101 63 96 63 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 97 61 93 61 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 98 67 93 65 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 96 57 92 57 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 97 57 93 59 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 98 62 93 62 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 98 62 94 60 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 86 54 84 54 / 20 0 0 0
Mescalero 85 51 81 51 / 20 0 0 0
Timberon 84 54 79 54 / 10 0 0 0
Winston 92 49 89 51 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 94 59 90 60 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 96 56 92 57 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 89 49 85 49 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 92 52 88 52 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 96 42 93 43 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 89 53 86 52 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 91 56 87 56 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 95 54 92 53 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 95 56 91 54 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 94 55 90 56 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 89 55 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
30/27/30