Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 222001
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
201 PM MDT Fri Mar 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly sunny and dry weather is expected over the next 7 days.
Westerly winds bring warmer temperatures and push the moisture to
the east. Tuesday will be the exception to the pattern when
southeasterly winds bring some moisture to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper trough responsible for the weather in the last two days
currently sits over the four corners area. The system is expected
to continue moving to the east and then to the northeast. On the
meantime, surface lee cyclogenesis in SE Colorado associated to
this upper trough has led to breezy conditions in the Borderland.
Winds should start decreasing below 15 mph this evening, but some
breezes may continue overnight in area mountains.

A zonal pattern develops as the upper trough leaves which will
bring a drier and warmer airmass to the region. A warming trend
will begin to this effect over the weekend. A few very week
disturbances aloft will result in some high clouds which should
keep us from reaching the 80s until next week.

An upper ridge starts developing over the Desert Southwest on
Monday. Temperatures will keep increasing as the ridge strengthens
and our max temps by Wednesday to around 5 to 10 degrees above
normal as we reach the lower 80s.

On Tuesday, the 850 mb winds shift to the southeast bringing gulf
moisture. Surface dewpoints are expected to increase into the 40s
in portions east of the Rio Grande. GFS and ECMWF agree on the
synoptic pattern, but are having trouble with the POPs and QPF.
The GFS has gone for a wet solution while the EC has a drier
one but with some QPF to our east, which is slightly different to
the previous run when it had none. Therefore, I decided to keep
low POPs, until I see more agreement between the models.

For the rest of the week, the upper ridge continues to prevail
across the area with warm and dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 23/00Z-24/00Z...
VFR conditions expected through forecast period. Skies P6SM SKC-
FEW250. Winds beginning 250-280 at 18G28KT diminishing to 270-300 at
05-10KT by 03Z. Winds will pick up again tomorrow afternoon 270-300
at 15G23KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A mostly dry forecast ahead as warm, west winds slowly bring
temperatures back to above normal. Temperatures will reach 5-10
degrees above normal by Tuesday, with a few lowland highs in the
80`s. Min RH will dip into the lower teens lowlands/ 20% mountains
as moisture continues to exit the area, which will contribute to a
steady drying of area fuels. Winds over the weekend will be breezy,
but well below critical thresholds. Vent rates will be good to very
good over the weekend. Our next chance of wetting rains won`t be
until next Tuesday when decent Gulf moisture moves into the eastern
half of New Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 46  74  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           41  72  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              40  73  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              41  71  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              30  53  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   39  71  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             38  65  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  37  71  38  75 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               36  71  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      47  73  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               40  73  40  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            45  77  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              43  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  44  75  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            42  73  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          44  72  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           38  71  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   39  73  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                41  74  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               41  72  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 36  63  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               36  62  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                33  61  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 33  69  30  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               38  71  37  75 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               37  72  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            32  67  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  34  66  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   33  68  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              33  67  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 37  68  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  38  72  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 36  72  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          38  73  40  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              40  70  41  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29-Crespo/30-Dennhardt


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