Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 161123
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
523 AM MDT Mon May 16 2022

...Update for 12Z TAF Cycle...

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevailing along the International Border today,
with smoke impacts causing visibility issues along the Rio Grande
Valley and further north. Southwest flow aloft returns today,
allowing for a slight increase in surface winds 210-240 at 12-18KT
this afternoon with gust potential up to 25 knots in the evening.
Winds veering to 270-300 at 05-10KT overnight. Skies generally
FEW-SCT150, with TCU development eastward over Sacramento
Mountains and Hudspeth County this afternoon. HRRR model runs
keeping smoke impacts limited to central NM today, but smoke
settling into the valley will likely reduce overnight VIS at KTCS
tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...301 AM MDT Mon May 16 2022...

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry conditions will prevail for the balance of the week
ahead. There will be a little moisture over the far eastern areas
today that could spark an isolated storm or two. Dry lightning
looks to be the biggest threat with this activity. Meanwhile some
heat relief will come our way next weekend as a back door front
ushers in a little moisture from the east. This could result in a
few more isolated showers and storm east of the Rio Grande by
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight...
Surface observations this morning confirm the brief intrusion of
a moisture boundary from the east today, which models push as far
west as the Sacramento Mountains and Hudspeth County by sunrise.
Dewpoints in the lower 30`s should be enough for a few isolated
showers and thunderstorms along the eastern fringes of the CWA
this afternoon, quickly moving east and out of the area. No
precipitation is expected west of the US-54 corridor and any
storms that do form east of there will be low-QPF/dry lightning
producers.

Upper ridge shifts eastward today allowing more consistent
southwesterly flow aloft to return. Winds will be a bit stronger
this afternoon in response to lee surface low formation over
central New Mexico. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph will be most
common. Temperatures remain well above normal, threatening a few
daily record highs. Lowland temperatures in the upper 90`s are
most likely, with another shot at our first 100 for El Paso.
Current NBM probabilistic chance of meeting or exceeding 100F in
El Paso is 30%, which would be a daily record.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday...
A progressive zonal pattern aloft looks to remain in place
through the end of the week. Thanks to a couple of embedded
shortwaves, the region will manage to stay below the century mark
through the extended, but should still see temps several degrees
above normal. This type of pattern will also result in typically
breezy afternoons across the area as deep mixing occurs daily. By
Friday a deeper longwave trough will begin to take shape over the
intermountain west. This will likely make Friday our windiest day
of the week as advisory level wind speeds may come into play.
Meanwhile it looks like dry conditions will be the norm for the
next several days.

As this upper trough lifts into the plains states, it will help
push a back door cold front into the region Saturday. Models have
hinted at this the past couple of days, but are starting to come
into somewhat better alignment. Temps should cool back to near
normal for all but the far western zones Saturday as easterly flow
behind the front also ushers in higher dewpoint temps.

Sunday looks to be the day that best favors some sort of
precipitation for the region. Another long wave trough will be
taking shape over the four corners by late weekend. This will turn
the upper flow back around to the southwest. Meanwhile a renewed
east surface push Saturday night and early sunday could result in
dew points close to 50 degrees east of the Rio Grande. While the
southwesterly flow aloft will certainly push this moisture out of
the region quickly by Monday of next week, there will be a decent
chance for a few showers and thunderstorms Sunday across eastern
zones where the better moisture will reside.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Exceptionally dry weather continues today across southwest New
Mexico. Moisture boundary will nudge into Lincoln National Forest
and Sacramento Mountains this morning, allowing for a brief chance
for isolated thunderstorms and higher risk of dry lightning
starts this afternoon. Elsewhere, RH 2-5% with very poor overnight
recoveries. Increasing southwest winds will put the region back
into elevated fire danger, with 20-ft winds 10 to 15 mph resulting
in Excellent afternoon smoke ventilation. Smoke impacts from the
ongoing Black Fire in the Gila East Fork will be mostly limited to
Socorro and Sierra Counties.

Continued dry weather under breezy west winds will maintain the
ongoing pattern of elevated fire danger. No Red Flag headlines are
expected until Thursday as winds remain just below critical
thresholds, increasing further late this week. Single-digit RH
values will remain with ERC values approaching record dryness for
local fuels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                100  67  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           95  64  90  61 /  10  10   0   0
Las Cruces              99  61  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              98  59  94  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              74  49  70  49 /  20   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   97  60  94  61 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             87  57  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  97  54  93  55 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               94  55  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      99  67  95  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               99  57  95  56 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Hancock           102  62  97  61 /  10  10   0   0
Loma Linda              92  62  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                 101  63  96  63 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            97  61  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          98  67  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           96  57  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   97  57  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                98  62  93  62 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               98  62  94  60 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 86  54  84  54 /  20   0   0   0
Mescalero               85  51  81  51 /  20   0   0   0
Timberon                84  54  79  54 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                 92  49  89  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               94  59  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               96  56  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            89  49  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  92  52  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   96  42  93  43 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              89  53  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 91  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  95  54  92  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 95  56  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          94  55  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              89  55  85  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

30/27/30


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