Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 282351
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
551 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...Updated for 00Z TAF Discussion...

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
After a couple of interesting weather days, we will see much more
quiet weather for the next 24 hours. Tonight, most of our winds
will go light and variable, though some northerly drainage winds
may prevail at KTCS. The ceilings will be unlimited tonight and
tomorrow, except for some lingering low clouds along the east
slopes of the Sacramento Mountains tonight. The one thing of
note, will be the possibility of some ground fog which may form
around KTCS, KLRU and KALM/KHDX. The fog will be patchy but may
briefly reduce visibilities to 4SM. What fog that does form will
quickly burn off by late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...347 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020...

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler temperatures will slowly loosen their grip on the region as
we head towards the weekend, but not before another cold night with
the potential for fog and freezing fog in a few places.
Expect temperatures to return to near-normal by Saturday, with a
very slight cool down Sunday as a very weak backdoor cold front
pushes in from the east. Temperatures will trend back up above
normal next week as a blocking pattern sets up across the west.
Some limited moisture may try to sneak a shower or thunderstorm
into far southwestern New Mexico early next week, but the overall
chances look slim at this point.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday...
Currently, satellite shows most of the skies over our CWA clearing
up. Some low level clouds are still over the Sacramento Mountains,
and will hang around until later tonight. Temperatures will be cold
tonight, and should cool to around 15 degrees below normal with
almost 20 degrees below normal in higher terrain. There is a low
level jet over the Sacramento Mountains tonight, which will give
higher elevation areas some gust conditions over night. Radiational
cooling and light winds in lower elevation areas will allow for some
patchy fog to form early tomorrow morning. Best confidence for Fog
formation will be along the Rio Grande Valley and Tularosa Basin, as
winds here have been light all day, keeping the moisture evaporated
today around the area for tonight. Winds will turn northerly around
12Z tomorrow, which this direction favors a bit stronger winds in
the Rio Grande Valley especially up by Truth or Consequences. If
winds increase to 7 - 10kts along the valley, fog will have a harder
time forming. As of now, high pressure over the area looks to keep
winds calm for most of the night.

Tomorrow, high temperatures will be around 10 to 15 degrees below
normal area wide. Clear skies and light winds will make for a cool,
but pleasant day.

31-Dhuyvetter

&&

.LONG TERM...
Temperatures will slowly warm up over the next few days as
southwesterly flow aloft re-develops in response to a very low
amplitude trough over California, and weak ridging over central
Texas. Highs by Saturday will return to normal, with the lower-70s
common across the lowlands.

The weak trough over California will lift and shear-out across the
Central Rockies, with minimal impact. However, it will usher in a
very weak backdoor cold front that will cool temperatures slightly
for Sunday.

Next week, models are in fairly good agreement on developing a rex
block over the western U.S., with a relatively weak upper low
stalled out over southern California embedded in a high-amplitude
ridge. Southwesterlies look to prevail in our area, keeping things
dry and warm, with temperatures going back above normal (upper-
70s) by Wednesday. There is a slight chance of a few showers or
thunderstorms over southwestern New Mexico late in the period,
depending on how much moisture the upper low might eventually tap
into, but the drier solution is preferred.

25-Hardiman

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The next few days will see some gradual warming and drying out.
High temps near normal by Saturday but dry cool front pushes west
into the area Sunday for modest cooling. No significant winds
expected through the weekend, though some breezy east winds
expected Sunday with the cool front.

Min RHs in the 30s lowlands today decreasing to the 20s Thursday
into the weekend. Min RHs for the mountains 45-60% today lowering to
25-35% Thursday through the weekend. Vent rates poor-fair through
the weekend.

31-Dhuyvetter

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 33  62  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           31  64  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              26  60  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              26  60  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              22  46  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   31  58  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             33  59  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  27  62  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               29  64  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      36  63  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               25  64  32  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            31  68  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              33  57  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  31  64  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            28  60  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          34  59  38  65 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           21  57  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   27  58  30  65 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                31  63  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               28  60  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 24  56  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               22  55  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                19  51  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 19  55  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               23  58  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               25  56  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            22  61  30  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  26  60  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   20  68  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              20  64  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 30  58  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  28  68  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 25  63  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          29  67  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              34  65  39  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/15


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