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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 062315
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
415 PM MST Sat Mar 6 2021

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
P6SM SKC-SCT250 through period. East to southeast winds
of 8-15G22KTS will gradually be decreasing to AOB 10KTS and
turning more east to northeast by 06Z. Winds will turn
to the south to southeast after 18Z but remain light.

&&
26
.PREV DISCUSSION...132 PM MST Sat Mar 6 2021...

.SYNOPSIS...
Well, we are in March, and the upcoming week is going to look a
lot like a typical March across the Borderland. Dry southwest flow
aloft will persist through Tuesday with plenty of sunshine and
just a few higher clouds. Temperatures will warm to well above
normal by Tuesday. Winds will become gusty in the afternoons on
Monday and especially Tuesday. A Pacific storm system moves to
California Wednesday and over Arizona Thursday, continuing the
strong afternoon winds. This system could spread some showers to
the area Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will remain well above
normal Wednesday but then cool down to near normal by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday...
Quiet weather conditions expected in the short term. Weak flow aloft
will keep the region in a relatively stagnant weather pattern over
the next 36 hours. Surface ridging extending east-to-west across
Texas will maintain light southeast flow and keep temperatures near
climate normals. Sunday will be slightly warmer, with lowland highs
returning to the lower 70`s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Saturday...
Looks like typical spring weather setting up over the next week.
the period begins with an upper ridge having moved over the CWA
and is just east of the area as a weak short wave trough moves
over the area. Trough might kick a few showers off Monday morning,
but they should remain north of the area. Broad southwest flow at
mid levels gradually increases so some breezes possible Monday
afternoon. High level moisture could produce cirrus ceilings
Sunday night and Monday. Temperatures will warm to well above
normal.

Models showing moisture plume associated with 130kt sub-tropical
jet moving over the area Tuesday night and Wednesday with spotty
QPF. Dewpoints remain relatively low so any showers likely virga
except light rain over the mountains possible. Lowlands high temps
could punch into the lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds both
Tue/Wed could reach advisory level but current GFS run keeps
tightest pressure gradient from Deming west, so that would be the
best area for both wind advisories and Red Flag conditions.

GFS/ECMWF/Canadian all similar handling next Pacific system
through Wednesday, with upper low just off central California
coast. Thereafter, model solutions start to diverge. GFS moves low
across the fastest, with the upper low over northern New Mexico
Friday morning and then out over the central Plains Friday
evening. ECMWF still has upper low just south of Las Vegas Friday
morning and lifting the low slowly northeast over Utah with
possible secondary low over northern New Mexico Saturday evening,
and not moving the low out of the area until Sunday morning.
Earlier run of the Canadian keeps system at about same speed as
ECMWF but shows open trough rather than closed low. Bottom
line...GFS suggests Thursday evening through Saturday morning
window for showers...ECMWF/Canadian show more of a Friday into
Sunday morning window of showers. For now went closer to GFS. Snow
levels relatively high Thursday (7000-8000 ft) but lower Thursday
night down to around 5000 ft with Pac fropa.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A more active fire weather pattern is expected to take shape midweek
as a warming trend combines with windier conditions to produce
critical fire danger by Wednesday. For Sunday, fair weather and
light winds will keep fire danger low. Light south winds and clear
skies will result in Poor to Fair smoke ventilation. A warming trend
beginning tomorrow will begin to drop relative humidity some,
however afternoon minimums are expected to remain above 20%.

Increasing southwest flow ahead of an approaching upper low diving
down the Pacific coastline will be our main weather driver through
much of the upcoming work week. This warm, downslope flow will
promote seasonably warm temperatures Monday through Wednesday,
around 10 to 15 degrees above climate normals. Relative humidity
should reach critical thresholds by Tuesday, dropping to 10-20%. The
main hazard with this system will be the winds. Winds will become
stronger day-by-day, with the current forecast reaching Red Flag
criteria Tuesday and Wednesday. For now, forecasting sustained
southwest flow of 20 to 30 mph those days.

Windy conditions will continue toward next weekend, however an
increase in moisture may help alleviate RH concerns by Friday. A
slight chance of mountain rain/snow showers is possible as the
aforementioned upper low finally progresses eastward, but no
substantial wetting is expected.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 41  73  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           36  68  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              36  72  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              35  70  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              28  51  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   37  71  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             37  65  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  34  71  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               37  72  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      43  73  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               31  70  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            35  75  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              37  67  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  39  75  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            37  72  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          41  70  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           35  70  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   34  72  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                37  72  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               37  70  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 31  64  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               29  61  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                26  59  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 25  65  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               32  69  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               34  70  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            31  67  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  30  67  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   32  74  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              35  69  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 35  67  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  32  75  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 32  72  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          35  73  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              39  71  46  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

30/17/26