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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 312238
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
205 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2020


.AVIATION UPDATE...00Z TAF CYCLE
Expect VFR conditions and generally light/variable winds through the
overnight and early morning hours. Skies will see increasing high
clouds arriving from the west. Winds will increase Wednesday
afternoon becoming breezy and gusty. Skies FEW180 BKN250 thru
06Z...then SCT150 OVC250. AFT 12Z FEW130 OVC220. Winds generally 180-
220 5-10kts through 12Z...becmg 240-260 10-15kts...gusts to
25kts...aft 21Z increasing to 15-20kts gusting to 30kts. Expect some
LLWS and rotor east of area mountains. Minimal BLDU expected with
only isolated and local areas of dust. VSBYs generally staying above
10SM.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather is expected the rest of the week with breezy winds
most afternoons. Temperatures will remain steady through the week
with lowland highs in the upper 70`s. Breezy southwest winds are
expected much of the week, with patchy blowing dust possible on
Thursday. Quiet weather is expected to continue through the
weekend before winds increase again early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday...
A weakening shortwave trough will shear-out across the central
Rockies over the next 24 hours, while larger-scale troughing
persists over the Pacific Northwest. We`ll see increasing high and
mid-level clouds during the overnight hours as the weakening system
approaches, and this will help keep overnight minimum temperatures
warmer than last night.

Relatively weak lee cyclogenesis over SE Colorado Wednesday
afternoon will result in breezy conditions in the afternoon, with a
few wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range possible. This may loft
patchy blowing dust, but visibility will remain above hazardous
levels, except over Lordsburg Playa at times.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Broad upper level troughing will continue over the next several
days as a longwave trough sits in place over western North
America. The primary jet flow will remain will off to our north
through the rest of the week, indicating no major winds are
expected despite weak lee cyclogenesis along the central Rockies.
Temperatures will remain steady with lowland highs in the upper
70`s each day as a dry, subsident airmass stays in place with
little day-to-day modification.

We`ll see dry weather the rest of the week with winds being the
primary weather focus. Thursday`s winds will be breezy as a lee
low forms over northeastern NM. Current model guidance puts these
winds sub-advisory, peaking around 20-30 mph. I did keep patchy
blowing dust for portions of southwest NM Thursday afternoon,
however most dust will be local-sourced due to the unfavorable
wind direction (WSW) and lower-end wind speeds. The El Paso metro
may end up not seeing any dust whatsoever.

Winds will be even weaker on Friday along with more seasonable
temperatures. A cold front will move southward down the Southern
Plains as we begin the weekend which may in turn push the dryline
westward on Saturday. This would introduce a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms for Hudspeth County, but the majority of
the forecast area will remain dry.

Breezy, low-impact winds over the weekend will be partnered with
more quiet weather. Our next chance for stronger winds begins next
Tuesday/Wednesday as the jet flow aloft shifts further south over
the borderland region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather is expected tomorrow as relative humidity
drops into the teens, especially along the International Border.
Winds will be from the west at 15 to 20 mph. These conditions
remain just below Red Flag criteria at this time, so no new
products are expected. Thursday will be more of the same with
elevated fire conditions area wide and slightly drier surface
air. These winds and warmer temperatures will result in Excellent
ventilation throughout the week as well as mixing heights
reaching 10k feet each afternoon. Dry weather will continue into
the weekend with breezy west winds Saturday and Sunday. Winds will
remain slightly below critical thresholds at least until next
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 56  80  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           51  77  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              54  78  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              51  78  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              41  53  39  55 /   0  10   0   0
Truth or Consequences   54  76  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             47  66  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  52  77  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               52  74  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      58  80  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               50  81  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            51  84  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              52  74  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  51  82  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            55  79  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          58  79  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           52  77  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   53  78  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                53  79  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               53  78  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 47  67  45  68 /   0  10   0   0
Mescalero               44  64  42  66 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                41  63  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 44  67  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               52  73  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               51  76  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            42  65  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  48  68  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   47  69  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              45  68  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 48  70  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  53  77  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 52  77  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          52  77  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              50  70  46  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/30/25