303
FXUS64 KEPZ 182121
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
221 PM MST Sat Jan 18 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1241 PM MST Sat Jan 18 2025

 - Mild and dry, but continued Breezy to windy through tonight and
   again on Monday night, otherwise, light winds will prevail.

 - Cold front pushes in tonight. Cooler weather returns Monday through
   Friday, with sub-freezing mornings area wide, and below normal
   afternoon high temperatures.

 - Looking dry through the weekend and next week. There is a small
   chance of light snow over the Sacramento mountains Monday night
   through Tuesday morning, with accumulations of a dusting up to less
   than an inch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 PM MST Sat Jan 18 2025

The first of a couple of strong backdoor cold fronts will push
south through the Borderland with the first tonight coming from
the north and northeast. The front will be pushed southward by a
1048 mb high diving south out of western Canada tonight with the
arctic airmass pushing south out of the central/southern Rockies
and central Plains. Wind chill values over the Sacramento
mountains will range between -1 to -8 on Sunday morning, while the
wind chill values for Otero and Hudspeth counties will be in the
lower teens, thus will maintain the Cold Weather Advisory that
will go in effect early Sunday morning. High temperatures on
Sunday will be noticeable cooler as well with high temperatures
running some 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today. Light westerly
flow on Monday will lead to a modest rebound in temperatures to
just below climatological normals across the Borderland for this
time of the year.


Attention turns the Monday night into early Tuesday as another
stout backdoor cold front will move in from the north and
northeast. The cold front will again bring breezy to gusty winds
to the Borderland ahead of the frontal passage with lower to mid
20s likely on Tuesday, coupled with breezy to windy conditions
will lead to Cold Weather Advisories being needed both on Tuesday
and Wednesday in the lowlands with an Extreme Cold Advisory
looking likely on Tuesday morning for the Sacramento mountains if
forecast trends hold up. The lows on Wednesday morning will be
quite chilly as well but winds will be lighter. The lighter winds
will persist through th rest of the forecat period. Temperatures
will slowly rebound as broad long wave trough moves east of the
Borderland. This will allow for west to soutwest flow to set up
over the area allowing for temperatures to return to seaonal
values by early next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 957 AM MST Sat Jan 18 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period at all TAF sites.
Breezy winds will continue through the afternoon period ahead of a
stout backdoor cold front that will push south into the region
this evening into tonight. Skies will remain SKC as little to no
moisture is associated with the trough/front, thus little to no
cloudiness will be associated with passage. Winds will remain
elevated through around 06z before weakening after frontal passage
at each TAF site. N/NE winds will occur ahead of the front, then
before turning N after passage in the 03-06z time frame at KTCS,
then around 06z-09z time frame at all other TAF sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1241 PM MST Sat Jan 18 2025

Dry and breezy to windy conditions will prevail through the
evening hours ahead of a stout backdoor cold front will push south
from the north and northeast. The cold front should push south of
the International border by mid morning on Sunday. Fire danger
will remain low as Min RH values on Sunday will 19-33% with the
lowest RH values in the Gila Black range on Sunday. Another
reinforcing shot of cold air arrives on Monday night into Tuesday
as another backdoor cold front pushes into the area with gusty to
breezy winds likely ahead of the front. Min RH values over the
lowlands areas along and west of the Divide will approach elevated
fire danger levels on Monday with lower teen values, elsewhere,
Min RH values range from 16-25% across the rest of the area. For
Tuesday, parts of the Gila/Black range will approach and in some
higher elevation may hover around criteria with lower teen RH
values. Winds will pick up to low end breezy Monday afternoon into
Tuesday. Vent rates of very good to excellent will fall to poor to
fair by Wednesday as colder temperatures, light winds aloft by
aloft reduce mixing heights and transport winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  29  48  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            19  44  22  55 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               24  46  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               17  44  21  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft                8  27  17  33 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    22  46  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              20  44  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   21  48  21  57 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                19  50  19  55 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       28  48  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                21  43  18  51 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             21  51  22  61 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               20  41  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   25  51  24  59 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             25  46  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           26  46  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            19  45  21  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    20  48  21  56 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 25  49  25  58 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                20  43  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                   9  41  20  43 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                10  35  17  42 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                  7  34  14  41 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                   9  43  13  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                19  48  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                17  44  19  51 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             17  46  22  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   16  44  19  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                     7  53   9  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               19  47  21  50 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  20  43  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   19  55  21  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  19  51  19  57 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           22  55  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               25  53  29  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM MST Sunday for Northern
     Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-Southern
     Hudspeth Highlands.

NM...Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM MST Sunday for East
     Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento
     Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains
     Above 7500 Feet-Southeast Tularosa Basin-West Slopes
     Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...41-Kelly