Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 062315
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
415 PM MST Sat Mar 6 2021
.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
P6SM SKC-SCT250 through period. East to southeast winds
of 8-15G22KTS will gradually be decreasing to AOB 10KTS and
turning more east to northeast by 06Z. Winds will turn
to the south to southeast after 18Z but remain light.
&&
26
.PREV DISCUSSION...132 PM MST Sat Mar 6 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
Well, we are in March, and the upcoming week is going to look a
lot like a typical March across the Borderland. Dry southwest flow
aloft will persist through Tuesday with plenty of sunshine and
just a few higher clouds. Temperatures will warm to well above
normal by Tuesday. Winds will become gusty in the afternoons on
Monday and especially Tuesday. A Pacific storm system moves to
California Wednesday and over Arizona Thursday, continuing the
strong afternoon winds. This system could spread some showers to
the area Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will remain well above
normal Wednesday but then cool down to near normal by Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday...
Quiet weather conditions expected in the short term. Weak flow aloft
will keep the region in a relatively stagnant weather pattern over
the next 36 hours. Surface ridging extending east-to-west across
Texas will maintain light southeast flow and keep temperatures near
climate normals. Sunday will be slightly warmer, with lowland highs
returning to the lower 70`s.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Saturday...
Looks like typical spring weather setting up over the next week.
the period begins with an upper ridge having moved over the CWA
and is just east of the area as a weak short wave trough moves
over the area. Trough might kick a few showers off Monday morning,
but they should remain north of the area. Broad southwest flow at
mid levels gradually increases so some breezes possible Monday
afternoon. High level moisture could produce cirrus ceilings
Sunday night and Monday. Temperatures will warm to well above
normal.
Models showing moisture plume associated with 130kt sub-tropical
jet moving over the area Tuesday night and Wednesday with spotty
QPF. Dewpoints remain relatively low so any showers likely virga
except light rain over the mountains possible. Lowlands high temps
could punch into the lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds both
Tue/Wed could reach advisory level but current GFS run keeps
tightest pressure gradient from Deming west, so that would be the
best area for both wind advisories and Red Flag conditions.
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian all similar handling next Pacific system
through Wednesday, with upper low just off central California
coast. Thereafter, model solutions start to diverge. GFS moves low
across the fastest, with the upper low over northern New Mexico
Friday morning and then out over the central Plains Friday
evening. ECMWF still has upper low just south of Las Vegas Friday
morning and lifting the low slowly northeast over Utah with
possible secondary low over northern New Mexico Saturday evening,
and not moving the low out of the area until Sunday morning.
Earlier run of the Canadian keeps system at about same speed as
ECMWF but shows open trough rather than closed low. Bottom
line...GFS suggests Thursday evening through Saturday morning
window for showers...ECMWF/Canadian show more of a Friday into
Sunday morning window of showers. For now went closer to GFS. Snow
levels relatively high Thursday (7000-8000 ft) but lower Thursday
night down to around 5000 ft with Pac fropa.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A more active fire weather pattern is expected to take shape midweek
as a warming trend combines with windier conditions to produce
critical fire danger by Wednesday. For Sunday, fair weather and
light winds will keep fire danger low. Light south winds and clear
skies will result in Poor to Fair smoke ventilation. A warming trend
beginning tomorrow will begin to drop relative humidity some,
however afternoon minimums are expected to remain above 20%.
Increasing southwest flow ahead of an approaching upper low diving
down the Pacific coastline will be our main weather driver through
much of the upcoming work week. This warm, downslope flow will
promote seasonably warm temperatures Monday through Wednesday,
around 10 to 15 degrees above climate normals. Relative humidity
should reach critical thresholds by Tuesday, dropping to 10-20%. The
main hazard with this system will be the winds. Winds will become
stronger day-by-day, with the current forecast reaching Red Flag
criteria Tuesday and Wednesday. For now, forecasting sustained
southwest flow of 20 to 30 mph those days.
Windy conditions will continue toward next weekend, however an
increase in moisture may help alleviate RH concerns by Friday. A
slight chance of mountain rain/snow showers is possible as the
aforementioned upper low finally progresses eastward, but no
substantial wetting is expected.
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 41 73 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 36 68 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 36 72 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 35 70 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 28 51 32 55 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 37 71 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 37 65 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 34 71 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 37 72 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 43 73 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 31 70 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 35 75 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 37 67 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 39 75 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 37 72 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 41 70 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 35 70 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 34 72 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 37 72 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 37 70 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 31 64 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 29 61 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 26 59 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 25 65 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 32 69 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 34 70 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 31 67 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 30 67 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 32 74 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 35 69 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 35 67 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 32 75 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 32 72 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 35 73 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 39 71 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
30/17/26