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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 102047
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
247 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
We will see another warm and breezy day on Tuesday, but on
Wednesday cooler air and some moisture will begin to trickle back
into the region. Our high temperatures on Wednesday will be 5 to
10 degrees below average. Warmer temperatures return on Thursday
and then we will see a slight chance for thunderstorms on Friday.
Next weekend, looks warm and dry.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday...
Not a lot of change in the pattern over the short-term. In fact
almost none.  We still have a large upper-level trough poised to our
west, upstream of the CWFA. Deep westerly flow will continue to keep
the region dry and warm again for Tuesday. Tonight will be a near
seasonal night with mildly cool temperatures for most of the area.
Last night winds stayed up over ELP to keep the east side warmer
than average (ELP was w/i 1 degree of tying the high min record).
That may happen again tonight, but probably not to the same degree
as winds should back off earlier. Skies will be clear and winds will
decouple throughout the evening.

For Tuesday, more of the same, with one notable exception.
Temperatures well warm back to what they have been the past two days
with lowlands in the 80s, and topping out just a couple of degrees
above seasonal normals. Deep westerly flow will keep the region dry
with plenty of sunshine. The one difference for Tuesday will be a
drop in wind speeds. Area wide surface troughing will fill in
producing a weaker gradient that settles over the heart of our CWFA
and thus results in only breezy winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
The long term picks up Tuesday night as a backdoor cold front
pushes across the area. This front will bring some breezy to windy
conditions especially for the west slopes of area mountains. We
will see cooler high temperatures on Wednesday, with highs running
5 to 10 degrees below average. In addition to the east winds and
cooler temperatures, the front will usher in a flow of moisture.
It will be slow at first but it will increase as we finish out the
week. We will be a little warmer on Thursday as an upper level
ridge builds across New Mexico, while at the surface, the east
flow will continue. Moisture will continue to trickle into the
region, but it won`t really be enough to help fire off some
convection until Friday. By Friday afternoon, the upper level
ridge will have flattened out and we will see a weak upper level
trough approaching the area from the west. The moisture and
instability associated with the trough will help fire off isolated
to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms, mainly in area
mountains but we could see a few storms in the lowlands as well.
But our rain chances won`t last long as drier air punches in for
the weekend. We will return to our warm and dry weather for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions with SKC-FEW250. Winds will be breezy this
afternoon 240-270 (except TCS 200-230) with sustained speeds of
15-20 knots and gusts 25-30 knots. Winds will peak between 18 and
02z with ELP seeing breezes last later into the evening. BLDU
cannot be ruled out, especially for ELP, but significant VIS
reductions seem unlikely at this time.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through the early evening for
our New Mexico fire zones.

We knew that today would deliver only MARGINAL Red Flag conditions,
and that is what we are seeing. The RH is well within RFW criteria
with single-digit readings across the entire region (high and low
elevations included). Winds are right at the levels needed, but
struggling to sustain speeds required for RFW. The mid and upper
levels continue with the deep W flow pattern with an upper trough to
our west. However an area of high pressure over the Central and
Southern Plains is making the surface pressure gradient less than
ideal for strong winds.

For tomorrow we keep the pattern pretty much the same. Trough aloft
to our west with energy passing well north. Deep dry westerly flow
continues across the region. RH minimums will again drop to the
single-digits. Temperatures will be very near what we saw yesterday
and today (just a few degrees above seasonal normals). Conditions
could be considered elevated tomorrow but winds will decreased
peaking to 10 to 15 MPH, and staying below RFW criteria.

Vent rates will be very good to excellent. Wednesday a backdoor
front pushes across from the east. Some areas will see strong and
gusty east winds Wednesday morning. Behind the front, southeast and
east winds will begin to usher in meager moisture. Dewpoints and RH
will increase from east to west; rising to the mid-teens west of the
divide and lower 20s east of the divide. Winds will remain below
critical thresholds. By Friday we will be watching for slight
chances for some shower and thunderstorm potential across the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 65  89  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           54  83  52  71 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              55  88  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              53  85  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              43  62  38  55 /   0   0  30  10
Truth or Consequences   52  86  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             48  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  47  87  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               48  84  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      64  88  66  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               52  87  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            55  90  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              54  80  51  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  58  89  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            53  86  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          64  85  57  78 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           54  84  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   53  87  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                53  87  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               54  85  54  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 46  74  40  61 /   0   0  30  20
Mescalero               46  73  43  66 /   0   0  20   0
Timberon                43  72  40  61 /   0   0  20   0
Winston                 38  79  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               49  84  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               50  84  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            43  79  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  42  81  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   40  87  41  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              35  79  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 47  81  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  46  85  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 48  85  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          49  85  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              48  80  51  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113.

TX...None.
&&

$$

Bird/Brice