Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 261122
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
422 AM MST Sun Jan 26 2020

...Updated for 12Z TAF cycle...

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions will prevail through forecast period. Winds below
06KTS increasing to 260-290 at 08-12KTS. We may see a few 12G20KTS
around 21Z. Skies FEW-SCT250, with increasing clouds at the very
end of the period. Unlimited VIS through forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...242 AM MST Sun Jan 26 2020...

.SYNOPSIS...
Westerly winds will bring warm dry weather with mild above normal
temperatures across southern New Mexico and west Texas today. An
upper level disturbance with a weak cold front will produce windy
conditions on Monday along with a few mainly mountain area rain
and snow showers. High pressure will result in dry weather and
slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday. Another upper disturbance
will bring a few rain and snow showers and slightly below normal
temperatures Wednesday through Thursday before high pressure and
westerly winds produce dry weather with gradually warming
temperatures Friday through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight...
Current satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies this morning,
with a few high clouds streaming by. We`ll likely see our warmest
temperatures of the week today as west winds allow the region to mix
into the upper 60`s by late afternoon. Surface low pressure over
eastern NM will increase winds slightly in the afternoon to 10 to 20
mph. Skies will be mostly clear with some high cirrus streaming over
the upper ridge axis.

Increasing clouds are expected overnight Sunday night as a
progressive upper trough approaches from the west. I doubt we see
any overnight precipitation, as the bulk of dynamic forcing remains
too distant until later on Monday. See the long term discussion for
more info on Monday`s weather.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Upper wave will move across the southern Rockies on Monday with
downslope winds and PVA ahead of system inducing surface lee
cyclone over the Texas panhandle. As a result low and mid level
gradients will strengthen across New Mexico and far west Texas
while dry lapse rates are expected from the surface to near 600 mb
by late afternoon. This scenario will support windy conditions
Monday afternoon and early evening with wind speeds near advisory
criteria especially southern zones. Rather strong dynamic upward
forcing will occur with air mass becoming even marginally
unstable. However moisture will be limited given the continental
trajectories so expect a few rain and snow showers mainly across
mountain zones with most of the CWA otherwise staying dry.
Northwest flow behind the wave will then bring dry weather with
slightly below normal temperatures on Tuesday.

Applying a compromise solution between the GFS and ECMWF would
indicate a closed upper low will move into New Mexico-Arizona
border area late Wednesday afternoon. A 120 kt jet streak in its
western quadrant will subsequently cause system to dive further
southeastward through southwestern New Mexico across north
central Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Concurrently colder
air from the north will advect into the CWA.

Continental trajectories with this pattern will again preclude
much moisture advection but upper low and associated trough
passage will provide rather strong upward forcing per DPVA and mid
level frontogenetic forcing fields. In addition dynamic cooling
aloft will make air mass very weakly unstable. These factors will
support a few rain and mountain snow showers mainly Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday with snow levels possibly lowering to
the lower elevations by early Thursday morning. However
precipitation amounts should be mostly light though several
inches of snow may accumulate over a few high mountain areas.

A subsiding north to northwest flow behind the upper trough/low
will bring dry weather with slowly warming temperatures Friday
through next weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Sunday will feature more dry weather as temperatures peak for the
week around 10 degrees above normal. West flow will increase
slightly this afternoon to 10 to 20 mph, but ventilation will remain
Fair. Skies will be mostly clear as relative humidities drop to the
20-30% range this afternoon.

Increasing winds on Monday due to an passing upper level system will
be accompanied with snow chances over our mountain zones. Winds will
peak Monday afternoon with sustained speeds of 25 to 35 mph.
Ventilation will be Very Good to Excellent. New snow accumulations
of less than an inch are expected above 7,000 feet ASL.

The rest of the week will feature cooler temperatures, especially on
Thursday as we expect the arrival of a cold front from the north and
some more brief rain/snow chances. While we could see brief
precipitation Monday and Thursday, significant wetting rains are
unlikely and fuels should remain close to their current state of
saturation. High confidence that next weekend will be dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 68  43  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           64  39  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              66  38  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              64  36  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              48  29  43  23 /   0  20  20   0
Truth or Consequences   64  37  60  32 /   0   0  10   0
Silver City             60  36  53  30 /   0  20  30   0
Deming                  67  36  62  30 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               64  37  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      68  44  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               68  35  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            71  39  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              62  41  59  35 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  69  42  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            67  39  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          66  42  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           65  35  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   67  35  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                68  41  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               65  37  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 61  34  56  29 /   0  10  10   0
Mescalero               56  31  51  25 /   0  20  20   0
Timberon                55  29  51  24 /   0  10  10   0
Winston                 60  35  53  30 /   0  20  20   0
Hillsboro               66  34  61  29 /   0  10  20   0
Spaceport               63  33  60  29 /   0   0  10   0
Lake Roberts            60  32  53  26 /   0  30  40   0
Hurley                  62  34  57  28 /   0  10  10   0
Cliff                   66  29  60  24 /   0  30  30   0
Mule Creek              60  34  55  29 /   0  30  40   0
Faywood                 64  36  58  30 /   0  10  20   0
Animas                  66  37  62  32 /   0  10  10   0
Hachita                 66  35  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          68  38  64  32 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              61  40  57  34 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

30/05/30



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