Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 071758
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1158 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2020

...Updated for 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
Our weather today will be similar to yesterday`s weather and it
will continue into Saturday. This morning, we have seen a far
amount of cloud cover across the region, except around KELP, which
has seen clearer skies. By early afternoon, like yesterday,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop. The main threat
from these storms will be strong and gusty outflow winds that can
travel far distances from the parent thunderstorms. We will see
generally VFR conditions today and tonight, except MVFR and
possible some brief IFR ceilings and visibilities in the
scattered thunderstorms. The threat of thunderstorms will diminish
during the overnight hours, but we could see rain showers linger
overnight. Outside of thunderstorms winds will be light and most
ceilings will stay above 8,000 feet. Thunderstorm movement this
afternoon will be to the northeast.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...507 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2020...

.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon storm chances persist today through Sunday, with
convection beginning in the higher terrain then storms forming
along outflow boundaries in the lowlands. Temperatures will be 5 -
10 degrees above normal, and will stay below triple digits in the
lowlands for the mentioned period. The upper level high begins to
move back over the area Monday, which will slowly dry us out and
warm us up.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM... Today and Tonight...
There is basically no change in the synoptic and mesoscale patterns
today versus yesterday. That should mean today`s weather will be
quite similar to yesterday`s. At low levels we have weak surface
troughing to help keep the advection of moderate moisture into the
region from the SW and SE. This will also keep weak convergent flow
over the region which may aid in producing lift from the surface.
Aloft the upper ridge remains parked over TX to our east. That
places our region under a deep SW flow which is helping to focus a
channel of moisture at mid and upper levels over far west TX and
southern NM. PWATs are averaging an inch or slightly more. This is
certainly enough moisture to create instability and support shower
and storm development. Like yesterday, most storms will be of a
general nature, with only a few strong storms expected. A warm
profile aloft will limit the strength of updrafts with CAPEs in the
500 to 1000J/KG range.  The lighter winds associated with the upper
high will also keep wind shear values low. This should mean general
airmass storm development with not a lot of organization. The
typical monsoon pattern is expected with mid-day storms over the
mountains and lowland storms following later in the afternoon, with
development tending to focus on outflow boundaries. The prog
soundings do show relatively dry sub- levels with surface
dewpoints mixing down into the mid-40s and surface highs in the mid-
upper 90s. Thus dewpoint depression will be large. The CAPEs come in
around 1500J/KG. Last night we saw several microbursts, we should
see more of those this afternoon and evening.  Temperatures will
again be above average.  Winds will generally be light, except when
outflows move across an area.

Tonight should keep some lingering showers with diminishing storms
during the late evening. Mild overnight temperatures with generally
light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Friday
The high pressure center remains over the Red River in TX/OK for
Saturday. With southwesterly winds aloft, and continued storm
activity in the Sierra Madre`s, more moisture advects into the
area this weekend. Best moisture values (PW greater than or equal
to 1.20 inches) will stretch from the NM Bootheel to the
Sacramento Mountains in our northeastern zones. This pattern
continues into Sunday as well. Scattered storm chances will begin
in the higher elevation and NM Bootheel early afternoon. Model soundings
have been persistent with warmer mid level air this weekend. This
will keep storms in the lowlands limited to forming along outflow
boundaries in the later afternoon hours. With the storms that do
form, strong winds and flash flooding will be the main threats.

Temperatures will be about 5 - 8 degrees above normal as late
morning clouds, lighter sustenance, and more moisture will work
to keep temperatures from rising into the triple digits.

The high pressure center begins to broadens to the southwest early
Monday morning. The center of the high does quickly migrate back
over southern NM by Monday evening. High temperatures look to
rise, but only by a degree or two since the 500mb heights max out
around 5930m over the CWA (which means the heating from this
compression will nearly be enough to push temperatures back up to
triple digits in a few isolated locations within the lowlands).
The positioning of this high pressure will shift the winds to
northerly, and start to flush out the moisture. Storm chances will
slowly diminish beginning Monday, however mountain chances will
stick around the whole period. Temperatures will rise by a degree
or two from Tuesday through Thursday, but will remain below
advisory criteria for now.

Surface winds turn easterly and bring in some more moisture
Friday, which will keep temperatures below triple digits and
resurface storm chances.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Expect today`s weather to be a repeat of yesterday`s weather as the
general patter across the region remains mostly unchanged. We do
have a bit more moisture in place today then yesterday, but
instability remains similar. The surface pattern shows some
troughing across the region, which will help to keep moderate
moisture drawn into the area. Aloft the upper high is parked over TX
to our west. This places our region on the west side of the high
with deep SW flow importing a continued moist plume of subtropical
air into southern NM and Far West Texas. Warm air aloft will keep
instability down a bit, but the combo of moisture, upslope flow, and
outflow boundary focusing will all work to produce isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. Earlier in
the mountains, and later across the lowlands. We look to keep this
pattern in place through the weekend, before the upper high drifts
back west to recenter over our area and reduce moisture and rain
chances, and increase temperatures, for Tuesday through the rest of
the week.

Wind should be generally light with the exception of storm outflow
winds. RH minimums look to stay mid and upper teens across the
lowlands; higher in the area mountains. Recoveries at night will be
marginal to good. Despite somewhat limited transport winds, mixing
heights will continue to be high each afternoon. Thus ventilation
rates will average "good" to "very good" each afternoon.

&&

14-Bird

&&

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 99  74  98  75 /  10  20   0  10
Sierra Blanca           99  67  93  67 /  10  20   0   0
Las Cruces              96  69  95  70 /  10  20   0  20
Alamogordo              96  71  97  70 /  20  20  20  20
Cloudcroft              72  53  74  52 /  40  20  50  20
Truth or Consequences   95  69  95  70 /  20  30  20  20
Silver City             87  65  88  65 /  20  30  30  20
Deming                  97  68  97  69 /  20  30   0  30
Lordsburg               96  68  95  70 /  20  20  20  20
West El Paso Metro      98  76 100  75 /  10  20   0  10
Dell City              101  70  99  70 /  10  20   0  10
Fort Hancock           102  74 100  74 /  10  20   0   0
Loma Linda              95  71  92  70 /  20  20   0  10
Fabens                 101  75  98  75 /  10  20   0  10
Santa Teresa            97  71  97  72 /  20  20   0  20
White Sands HQ          97  72  97  72 /  20  20  10  20
Jornada Range           97  70  95  70 /  20  20  10  20
Hatch                   97  69  97  70 /  20  20  20  20
Columbus                98  71  97  72 /  20  30   0  20
Orogrande               98  71  97  71 /  20  20  10  20
Mayhill                 82  58  84  58 /  40  20  50  20
Mescalero               81  57  84  57 /  30  20  50  20
Timberon                82  56  82  56 /  20  20  40  20
Winston                 87  58  86  58 /  40  30  40  20
Hillsboro               90  66  95  66 /  20  20  30  20
Spaceport               96  68  95  69 /  10  20  20  20
Lake Roberts            84  58  87  58 /  30  30  40  20
Hurley                  91  64  92  65 /  20  30  30  20
Cliff                   93  61  95  62 /  20  20  30  20
Mule Creek              92  63  91  65 /  20  20  30  20
Faywood                 90  65  92  66 /  20  30  30  20
Animas                  96  67  96  68 /  20  20  20  20
Hachita                 97  66  95  67 /  20  30  10  30
Antelope Wells          94  67  95  67 /  30  30  20  20
Cloverdale              91  66  90  66 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/15


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