361
FXUS64 KEPZ 121950
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
150 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 126 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024

Quiet weather conditions the next few days with lighter afternoon
winds and warm temperatures. Breezy winds return on Wednesday
before a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over
area mountains on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024

Upper low currently progressing across the central High Plains
with a trough axis extending southwest across New Mexico. Breezy
west winds this afternoon, with a few gusts to 30 mph through the
evening hours. Winds will lighten again overnight.

Weak ridge of high pressure aloft will drive the weather pattern
early this week with a weak Pacific low trailing it. Lighter
afternoon winds will reduce fire danger and a subtle warming trend
should push lowland highs back to the upper 80s/lower 90s Monday
through Wednesday. Zone of diffluence aloft ahead of the
subtropical low does sag south the middle part of the week,
allowing for better low level moisture in southern New Mexico and
thus slight chances for showers and thunderstorms over the high
terrain.

Good confidence in the eventual track of the Pacific low across
the Southwest US Wednesday/Thursday. Marginal moisture return
from the north may occur with this, allowing for some low-end
thunderstorm and rain shower chances over the Gila NF and Lincoln
NF. Precipitation chances remain quite low for the El Paso metro
through late May.

Finally, worth noting that extended models are signaling a warmup
next week, possibly into the upper 90s for El Paso. NBM gives El
Paso a 29% chance of 100 degrees on May 21st. Not set in stone
quite yet, but that time of year to begin monitoring the seasonal
warm up toward summer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024

VMC through forecast period under northwest flow aloft. Skies
generally SKC-FEW120 this afternoon with greater mid level cloud
coverage north into central New Mexico. Surface winds 260-290 at
15 to 20 knots this afternoon with peak gusts to 30 knots around
21Z. Winds subside this evening, generally 280-320 at 05-10 knots
overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 126 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024

Lighter winds on Monday will reduce fire danger below Elevated
criteria. Northwest flow 10 to 15 mph during the afternoon will
lead to Very Good smoke ventilation. Remaining dry with min RH
10-20%. Winds pick back up on Wednesday out of the southwest,
leading to more Elevated conditions. No fire headlines expected at
this time. Approaching Pacific low and a moisture intrusion from
the north may result in scattered showers and thunderstorms over
the National Forests on Thursday, leading to a risk of lightning
starts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  61  90  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            55  83  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               55  88  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               51  84  54  88 /   0  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               39  62  42  65 /   0  10   0  10
Truth or Consequences    55  83  56  87 /   0  10   0   0
Silver City              49  78  52  80 /   0  10   0   0
Deming                   51  87  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                50  85  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       58  87  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                50  87  52  92 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             53  89  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               54  80  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   56  89  56  93 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             52  85  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           60  86  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            49  85  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    50  87  52  91 /   0  10   0   0
Columbus                 56  86  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                53  84  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  44  72  45  77 /   0  10   0  10
Mescalero                42  72  45  76 /   0  10   0  10
Timberon                 42  71  44  75 /   0  10   0   0
Winston                  46  77  49  78 /   0  10   0  10
Hillsboro                52  82  53  85 /   0  10   0   0
Spaceport                47  84  50  87 /  10  10   0   0
Lake Roberts             43  79  46  81 /   0  10   0  10
Hurley                   46  82  49  84 /   0  10   0   0
Cliff                    48  85  52  87 /   0  10   0   0
Mule Creek               49  81  52  83 /   0  10   0   0
Faywood                  50  80  52  83 /   0  10   0   0
Animas                   50  85  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  51  85  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           50  85  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               50  79  52  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt