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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 061203
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
603 AM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 208 AM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Active weather with scattered to numerous thunderstorms will occur
over much of the area this afternoon and evening. Some of the
storms may become severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts
possible. Periods of heavy rain will also occur with these storms.
On Wednesday, storms will be limited to eastern portions of
Hudspeth and Otero counties. A westerly flow and dry conditions
with seasonally warm temperatures will occur for the remainder of
the week and through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 AM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Short Term Outlook for Today and Tonight and Wednesday:

Several weather related factors are coming together for a very
active and potentially severe weather event for the area this
afternoon and this evening. A strong low level easterly flow is
bringing moisture back to the region with precipitable water
values up to an inch in some areas. This easterly flow is
colliding with a westerly flow that is causing a convergence of
moisture in the area that could serve as a boundary and lifting
mechanism for convective initiation. Winds aloft will be from the
southwest to west. This is setting up a veering wind profile over
the area that can provide both directional and some speed shear to
enhance thunderstorm development.

The atmosphere is very buoyant with CAPE values exceeding 1000
and LI`s hovering around minus 5. Also helping to enhance
thunderstorm development is a right entrance region of an
approaching jet in the upper atmosphere will enhance lift across
the area this afternoon and evening. There is also small short
wave feature embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft that
contribute additional lift.

Timing of todays active weather event looks to be this afternoon
and evening. Thunderstorms will develop over the Sacramento
mountains by mid day as usual for this time of year. These storms
will be strong an capable of producing heavy rainfall and
potentially larger hail. For other areas, several short range
models are in agreement in developing a north to south line of
thunderstorms along the continental divide between 3 and 4 pm MDT.
This line will move east and will impact the El Paso and Las
Cruces metro areas between 5 and 8 pm and then areas to the east
from 8 to 10 pm before dissipating.

With models in general agreement, several convective parameters
have aligned for possible severe storm development with large hail
and damaging wind gusts the main threat. Winds may become
particularly strong as the line of storms intensifies and
interacts with the local topography. The storm prediction center
has placed the area under a marginal risk this afternoon and
evening. Periods of torrential heavy rain are also possible with
the area under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. The
predicted speed of movement of the line of storms may limit
overall rain accumulation but during the actual event the rainfall
may be intense.

For Wednesday storm activity will be more limited. The westerly
flow will begin to push moisture back to the east. Most of the
forecast area will be dry except for eastern portions of Hudspeth
and Otero Counties where strong thunderstorms will be possible in
the afternoon and evening hours.

Long Term Outlook for Thursday through next Tuesday:

A dry west to southwest flow will remain over the area from
Thursday into next week. This flow will be maintained by a
persistent low pressure system near the west coast and a building
high pressure system in northern Mexico. The pattern should
remain static for several days, keeping moisture, precipitation,
and thunderstorms away from southern New Mexico and west Texas.
There will be periods of variable high clouds from high level
moisture from the eastern Pacific Ocean but lower levels will
remain dry.

Temperatures will be near or slightly above seasonal
values which means lower to middle 90s for the lowland areas.
With the dry weather pattern comes elevated fire conditions that
will increase with any breezy winds in the afternoon period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Steady east to southeast flow continues across the area through
mid day. Winds will become more southerly in the afternoon with
thunderstorms developing first over the higher mountains.
Thunderstorm development evolve into a line of thunderstorms
forming west of KDMN that will move from west to east through the
region with taf sites impacted for around 4 hours generally from
22Z to 02Z give or take an hour. Thunderstorms will move off to
the east and dissipate around 05Z. There is a potential for some
of the storms to develop large hail and strong wind gusts,
especially once the line of storms forms in the late afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 AM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Increased moisture across the region will allow scattered to
numerous thunderstorms to occur this afternoon and evening from
roughly the continental divide and eastward. Some of the storms
may become severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts. Periods
of torrential heavy rain may accompany today`s storms. A westerly
flow will begin to bring dry air back to the Bootheel area this
afternoon as the moisture starts to retreat eastward with the
storms. Elevated fire danger conditions will be possible in the
Bootheel area this afternoon, however red flag conditions will not
be met. Dry lightning from isolated storms in the western
portions of the Gila Region may cause some fire starts. Eastern
portions of the Gila and Black range will have a lot of rain with
thunderstorm occurrence.

Wednesday will see more widespread drier conditions with humidity
levels dropping back into the teens. Thunderstorm activity will
be limited to the Sacramento mountains and eastern Hudspeth
county. An extended period of dry warm weather with a persistent
west to southwest flow will occur area wide on Thursday and
persist into next week. Temperatures will remain seasonal values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  93  67  93  66 /  40  80  10   0
Sierra Blanca            84  59  86  58 /  40  60  40  20
Las Cruces               92  61  91  60 /  50  80  10   0
Alamogordo               88  56  86  56 /  40  60  20   0
Cloudcroft               62  43  64  44 /  70  60  50  10
Truth or Consequences    87  59  86  57 /  60  60  10   0
Silver City              82  52  80  52 /  60  40   0   0
Deming                   92  56  90  53 /  70  50   0   0
Lordsburg                91  55  87  53 /  30  20   0   0
West El Paso Metro       90  64  89  63 /  50  80  10   0
Dell City                88  60  89  57 /  30  60  40  20
Fort Hancock             93  61  93  60 /  40  80  20  10
Loma Linda               84  59  83  58 /  40  80  20  10
Fabens                   93  62  91  62 /  40  80  10  10
Santa Teresa             89  59  88  58 /  50  70  10   0
White Sands HQ           89  64  88  64 /  40  80  10   0
Jornada Range            88  57  87  55 /  50  70  10   0
Hatch                    89  57  88  55 /  50  80  10   0
Columbus                 91  59  90  60 /  60  40   0   0
Orogrande                87  59  86  56 /  40  70  20   0
Mayhill                  73  48  76  47 /  60  60  60  20
Mescalero                74  46  74  46 /  70  60  40  10
Timberon                 73  46  73  45 /  50  60  50  10
Winston                  77  49  76  47 /  70  60  20   0
Hillsboro                85  53  84  54 /  50  80  10   0
Spaceport                87  56  86  53 /  50  80  10   0
Lake Roberts             82  48  81  46 /  60  50  10   0
Hurley                   87  51  86  50 /  50  40   0   0
Cliff                    91  44  88  41 /  40  20   0   0
Mule Creek               87  51  82  50 /  30  10   0   0
Faywood                  86  54  84  54 /  60  60  10   0
Animas                   92  53  88  52 /  20  10   0   0
Hachita                  91  55  88  54 /  30  20   0   0
Antelope Wells           91  54  87  53 /  20  10   0   0
Cloverdale               85  54  81  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...04-Lundeen