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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
477 FXUS64 KEPZ 202137 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 337 PM MDT Mon May 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A strong upper low over northern Arizona will move north of the area tonight, with a Pacific cold front moving across the region this afternoon and early evening. This system will bring increasing southwest to west winds to the area through the evening, with winds and dust likely peaking in Las Cruces and El Paso between 5 PM and 7 PM. Winds will gradually fall off this evening. Windy conditions will return on Tuesday, as a strong surface low develops along the Colorado and Kansas border, but gusts will be lower than today. Breezy conditions will persist on Wednesday as temperatures climb into the lower-90s across the lowlands. Cooler temperatures will briefly return on Thursday, then increase again through the weekend, with generally lighter winds. Windy weather may make a return next Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Water vapor imagery shows the deep upper low over northern Arizona, with the main shortwave trough extending across southeastern Arizona, and leading shortwave trough or vort lobe over SW New Mexico. Winds have been a little slow to come up, with gusts mostly below 40 mph along the Rio Grande Valley. This is mostly due to widespread high clouds limiting mixing. However, they are quickly thinning out. A few sites near WSMR HQ have recently clocked in at or a little above 60 mph. Also, gusts over 40 mph have become more common in SW New Mexico as drier air aloft clears the skies up a bit. A few isolated thunderstorms have developed over the Gila Region, and coverage should increase slightly through the afternoon and early evening hours. Dust has been getting kicked up, especially over south-central New Mexico, with visibility ranging from around 2 to 4 miles. Dust RGB product is obscured over the El Paso area, but plumes are visible in the clearer area over NW Chihuahua into southern Luna and Dona Ana Counties. It`s not too bad east of the Franklins just yet (based on web cams), but as clouds thin out and winds increase, dust plumes will kick up some more. Also, the most apparent plume currently on satellite imagery is oriented towards KELP, though we "lose it" in the imagery under the high clouds. Expiration time for the Wind Advisories/Warnings still look good. We may have a tough time reaching Warning criteria west of the Franklins/Organs but it will be very close, with the peak of the winds holding off until right around 6 or 7 PM when the Pacific front itself comes through (it is presently between DMN and LSB). The overall forecast has not changed much. By tomorrow, the upper low will have shifted to near the CO/KS border, on the SE edge of a broad longwave trough extending across the western half of the CONUS. Another upper low will be moving into the Oregon coast during the afternoon. A deep surface low over eastern Colorado (982 mb!) will keep a strong pressure gradient in place across the area. Winds aloft look to be a little lighter, but we may just manage advisory criteria over the eastern 2/3rds of the CWA for a few hours tomorrow afternoon, especially given the pressure gradient. The upper low moving into Oregon on Tuesday will drop into the lower Colorado basin by Wednesday afternoon, with a blocking ridge over the SE U.S. blocking its eastward progress, and forcing a more amplified pattern, with deep southerly flow setting up over New Mexico. With the low so far to west, and the southerly direction of the wind limiting lee troughing, winds look to be `breezy to windy` but short of Advisory criteria on Wednesday. Temperatures, however, will quickly ramp up into the lower-90s, especially over areas near and east of the Rio Grande, with cooler temperatures expected over SW New Mexico, closer to the upper low. The upper low will lift NNE into western Wyoming, with a trailing trough grazing New Mexico on Thursday. Again, breezy to windy, but below advisory criteria. Slight cooling aloft will take the edge off temperatures a bit as well. It looks to be less windy heading into the weekend as the longwave trough over the west coast weakens, but another upper low or deep trough looks to dive into the Great Basin Sunday and Monday, bringing a return to somewhat unseasonable windy weather early next week. && .AVIATION...Valid 21/00Z-22/00Z... Mostly VFR conditions expected thru the period. Periods of MVFR will be possible during peak daytime heating as strong winds will create blowing dust in the region. VIS could go to as low as 3 SM with isolated locations reaching into the IFR category due to lower visibilities. As the upper system moves into the region west to southwest winds will intensify from the 20 to 30 kts range into the 30 to 40 kts range between 0Z to 6Z. Then winds are expected to decrease, but remain mostly windy overnight. Winds are expected to become stronger again tomorrow after 18Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Critical fire weather conditions are expected over the next couple of days. Dry and breezy to windy conditions are expected to prevail this week. Red flag warnings are possible both tomorrow and Wednesday. West to southwest winds will not be as strong as today due to the upper system moving away from the region. However, minimum RH remains below 15% and 20-foot winds continue to be over 20 mph thru Wednesday. From Thursday and the rest of the week dry weather continues but the winds lose intensity. Over the weekend, winds become stronger again (feels like early Spring), which would bring back an elevated risk for the region. Ventilation rates will be excellent as max mixing heights will be very high. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 52 80 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 48 76 52 89 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 44 75 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 44 76 50 86 / 10 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 29 51 38 62 / 20 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 44 74 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 35 65 43 71 / 20 0 0 0 Deming 42 76 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 38 74 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 50 79 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 49 80 52 93 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 52 85 56 97 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 46 73 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 51 82 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 46 78 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 51 76 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 42 74 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 42 76 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 46 78 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 46 76 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 36 63 44 74 / 10 0 0 0 Mescalero 32 61 42 72 / 20 0 0 0 Timberon 32 60 40 72 / 20 0 0 0 Winston 30 66 38 72 / 10 0 0 0 Hillsboro 39 71 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 39 73 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 30 65 37 71 / 30 0 0 0 Hurley 35 69 42 74 / 10 0 0 0 Cliff 29 72 38 78 / 30 0 0 0 Mule Creek 35 67 41 71 / 40 0 0 0 Faywood 38 69 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 37 78 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 38 77 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 39 77 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 38 71 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ407- 410>413-417. High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ411-413>416. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ112. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ111-112. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NMZ111-112. Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ401>410-412-417. TX...Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418>424. High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for TXZ418-419. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for TXZ055-056. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for TXZ055-056. Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for TXZ420>424. && $$ 25-Hardiman / 29-Crespo
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