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494
FXUS64 KEPZ 210848
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
248 AM MDT Mon Oct 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
West to northwest winds will bring seasonably warm dry weather and
mostly sunny skies across southern New Mexico and west Texas today
through Wednesday. A rather strong cold front will move through
the region causing cooler below normal temperatures Thursday and
Friday. High pressure aloft followed by westerly winds will
produce more dry weather with warming temperatures next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Slightly cooler air has advected into southern New Mexico and
west Texas behind a weak cold front tonight. For today through
Wednesday west to northwest winds both at the surface and aloft
will transport dry air mass into the region with subsidence aloft
and abundant sunshine bringing a slow warming trend.

On Thursday a deepening upper trough will move across the Rockies
and into the plains with an associated Canadian cold front
pushing to the southwest through New Mexico and west Texas.
Stronger east to northeast winds behind the front will advect
cooler air mass from east to west with frontal passage occurring
during the morning and early afternoon across the CWA. Thus much
of the area may experience their high temperatures for the day
before noon. Marginally windy conditions may also exist along a
few western slope locations. High temperatures will fall to
around 5 to 10 degrees below normal Thursday with highs 10 to 15
degrees below normal Friday.

Upper ridge will move over the area Saturday followed by a
strengthening zonal Sunday and Monday. These trends will sustain
dry weather and support warming temperatures during this time.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 21/12z-22/12z.
VFR conditions with skies SKC-SCT250 and surface winds around 5-15
KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
West to northwest winds will bring seasonably warm dry weather and
mostly sunny skies across southern New Mexico and west Texas today
through Wednesday. Surface winds will be around 5 to 15 mph with
afternoon lowest humidity around 15 to 25 percent lowlands and 25
to 25 percent mountains. A rather strong cold front will move
through the region causing cooler temperatures around 5 to 10
degrees below normal Thursday and 10 to 15 degrees below normal
Friday. High pressure aloft followed by westerly winds will
produce more dry weather with warming temperatures next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 75  46  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           72  42  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              74  42  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              71  42  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              52  29  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   73  41  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             68  39  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  75  40  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               77  41  77  41 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      75  48  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               75  41  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            77  47  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              69  44  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  76  47  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            75  43  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          73  46  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           73  41  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   74  41  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                75  44  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               72  42  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 64  33  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               61  31  64  33 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                59  31  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 68  28  70  30 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               73  39  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               73  39  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            69  31  73  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  70  37  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   75  31  80  32 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              73  37  77  37 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 72  39  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  79  42  80  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 76  41  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          78  42  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              76  43  78  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash