Area Forecast Discussion
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477
FXUS64 KEPZ 202137
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
337 PM MDT Mon May 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper low over northern Arizona will move north of the
area tonight, with a Pacific cold front moving across the region
this afternoon and early evening. This system will bring
increasing southwest to west winds to the area through the
evening, with winds and dust likely peaking in Las Cruces and El
Paso between 5 PM and 7 PM. Winds will gradually fall off this
evening. Windy conditions will return on Tuesday, as a strong
surface low develops along the Colorado and Kansas border, but
gusts will be lower than today. Breezy conditions will persist
on Wednesday as temperatures climb into the lower-90s across the
lowlands. Cooler temperatures will briefly return on Thursday,
then increase again through the weekend, with generally lighter
winds. Windy weather may make a return next Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery shows the deep upper low over northern
Arizona, with the main shortwave trough extending across
southeastern Arizona, and leading shortwave trough or vort lobe
over SW New Mexico. Winds have been a little slow to come up,
with gusts mostly below 40 mph along the Rio Grande Valley. This
is mostly due to widespread high clouds limiting mixing. However,
they are quickly thinning out. A few sites near WSMR HQ have
recently clocked in at or a little above 60 mph. Also, gusts over
40 mph have become more common in SW New Mexico as drier air
aloft clears the skies up a bit. A few isolated thunderstorms have
developed over the Gila Region, and coverage should increase
slightly through the afternoon and early evening hours.

Dust has been getting kicked up, especially over south-central New
Mexico, with visibility ranging from around 2 to 4 miles. Dust RGB
product is obscured over the El Paso area, but plumes are visible
in the clearer area over NW Chihuahua into southern Luna and Dona
Ana Counties. It`s not too bad east of the Franklins just yet
(based on web cams), but as clouds thin out and winds increase,
dust plumes will kick up some more. Also, the most apparent plume
currently on satellite imagery is oriented towards KELP, though we
"lose it" in the imagery under the high clouds.

Expiration time for the Wind Advisories/Warnings still look good.
We may have a tough time reaching Warning criteria west of the
Franklins/Organs but it will be very close, with the peak of the
winds holding off until right around 6 or 7 PM when the Pacific
front itself comes through (it is presently between DMN and LSB).

The overall forecast has not changed much. By tomorrow, the
upper low will have shifted to near the CO/KS border, on the SE
edge of a broad longwave trough extending across the western half
of the CONUS. Another upper low will be moving into the Oregon
coast during the afternoon. A deep surface low over eastern
Colorado (982 mb!) will keep a strong pressure gradient in place
across the area. Winds aloft look to be a little lighter, but we
may just manage advisory criteria over the eastern 2/3rds of the
CWA for a few hours tomorrow afternoon, especially given the
pressure gradient.

The upper low moving into Oregon on Tuesday will drop into the
lower Colorado basin by Wednesday afternoon, with a blocking ridge
over the SE U.S. blocking its eastward progress, and forcing a
more amplified pattern, with deep southerly flow setting up over
New Mexico. With the low so far to west, and the southerly
direction of the wind limiting lee troughing, winds look to be
`breezy to windy` but short of Advisory criteria on Wednesday.
Temperatures, however, will quickly ramp up into the lower-90s,
especially over areas near and east of the Rio Grande, with cooler
temperatures expected over SW New Mexico, closer to the upper low.

The upper low will lift NNE into western Wyoming, with a trailing
trough grazing New Mexico on Thursday. Again, breezy to windy, but
below advisory criteria. Slight cooling aloft will take the edge
off temperatures a bit as well.

It looks to be less windy heading into the weekend as the longwave
trough over the west coast weakens, but another upper low or deep
trough looks to dive into the Great Basin Sunday and Monday,
bringing a return to somewhat unseasonable windy weather early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 21/00Z-22/00Z...
Mostly VFR conditions expected thru the period. Periods of MVFR
will be possible during peak daytime heating as strong winds will
create blowing dust in the region. VIS could go to as low as 3 SM
with isolated locations reaching into the IFR category due to
lower visibilities. As the upper system moves into the region west
to southwest winds will intensify from the 20 to 30 kts range
into the 30 to 40 kts range between 0Z to 6Z. Then winds are
expected to decrease, but remain mostly windy overnight. Winds are
expected to become stronger again tomorrow after 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected over the next couple
of days. Dry and breezy to windy conditions are expected to prevail
this week.  Red flag warnings are possible both tomorrow and
Wednesday. West to southwest winds will not be as strong as today
due to the upper system moving away from the region. However,
minimum RH remains below 15% and 20-foot winds continue to be over
20 mph thru Wednesday. From Thursday and the rest of the week dry
weather continues but the winds lose intensity. Over the weekend,
winds become stronger again (feels like early Spring), which would
bring back an elevated risk for the region. Ventilation rates will
be excellent as max mixing heights will be very high.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 52  80  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           48  76  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              44  75  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              44  76  50  86 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              29  51  38  62 /  20   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   44  74  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             35  65  43  71 /  20   0   0   0
Deming                  42  76  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               38  74  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      50  79  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               49  80  52  93 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            52  85  56  97 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              46  73  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  51  82  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            46  78  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          51  76  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           42  74  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   42  76  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                46  78  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               46  76  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 36  63  44  74 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero               32  61  42  72 /  20   0   0   0
Timberon                32  60  40  72 /  20   0   0   0
Winston                 30  66  38  72 /  10   0   0   0
Hillsboro               39  71  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               39  73  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            30  65  37  71 /  30   0   0   0
Hurley                  35  69  42  74 /  10   0   0   0
Cliff                   29  72  38  78 /  30   0   0   0
Mule Creek              35  67  41  71 /  40   0   0   0
Faywood                 38  69  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  37  78  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 38  77  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          39  77  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              38  71  45  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ407-
     410>413-417.

     High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ411-413>416.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ112.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ111-112.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for NMZ111-112.

     Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ401>410-412-417.

TX...Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418>424.

     High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for TXZ418-419.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for TXZ055-056.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for TXZ055-056.

     Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for TXZ420>424.

&&

$$

25-Hardiman / 29-Crespo



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