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000
FXUS62 KKEY 200826
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
426 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Under mostly clear skies and light east to southeast winds of 5 to
10 mph, temperatures are hovering around 80 degrees.
Meanwhile, local radars are detecting isolated showers across our
entire area, with the majority of the cells found on the outer
waters of Mainland Monroe and beyond 40 nm southeast of the Upper
Keys. On our marine district, winds are east to southeast ranging
from 3 knots at Alligator Reef Light to 10 knots at Carysfort Reef
Light.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
A weak western Atlantic ridge axis extending across north and
central Florida today through Wednesday, will be strengthened by
another massive high pressure cell pressing southward down the
eastern seaboard and the Florida Peninsula by the middle of this
week. Despite large scale subsidence, ample low level moisture and
light winds will provide the opportunity for mesoscale forcing in
the form of cloud line genesis and outflow boundaries triggered
from our neighboring large land masses. With that, isolated 10 to
20 percent pops will be returned. High temperatures will average
near 90 and overnight lows in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
The aforementioned (2nd paragraph) high pressure system will
extend across the gulf coast and the Sunshine State by late
Friday, before sagging southward and weakening next weekend.
Without any large scale ascent evident, decreasing low level winds
and enough low level moisture will keep mesoscale forcing our
primary precipitation source. Hence, isolated 10 to 20 percent 12
hour pops which are near normal will be retained. Seen no reason
to stray from highs near 90 and overnight lows in the upper 70s to
near 80.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside of any outflow boundaries, heavier cells or possible
waterspouts, light to gentle mainly east winds will prevail on all
Keys coastal waters today through Tuesday, before gradually
increasing Tuesday night but especially Wednesday night when an
Exercise Caution/Advisory will likely be required for our entire
marine district. Thereafter, typical surges and lulls will occur,
but headlines will be needed on our waters for the balance of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals
through the forecast period. Winds will generally be from the east,
with a few hour period of mid-morning backing to the northeast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 2006, the daily record low temperature of 67 degrees was
recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  88  79  88  79 / -  20 -  10
Marathon  92  81  93  81 / 20 20 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...APA
Aviation/Nowcasts....WLC
Data Collection......Chesser

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