Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 020333
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1033 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2024

Currently - A broad surface anticyclone, moving off the Atlantic
coast is druving a broad swath of moderate to fresh breezes around
its southern flank. In the Keys, winds are gentle to moderate out
of the east to southeast. This warm and moist flow is resulting
in temperatures only slowly f alling through the mid 70s with dew
points near 70. The flow aloft is zonal and the heart of the deep
layered ridge has shifted well to the east. This is likely why the
main subsidence inversion has lifted to around 800 mb. However,
there is dry air just below with an inhibitive layer based at a
low 970 mb. Consequently, no shower activity has been detected in
the forecast area and only patches of stratocumulus have been
observed.

Short Term Update - The previously mentioned high will migrate
further out into the Atlantic overnight. That said, winds may
increase a bit and veer further east southeasterly through the
overnight period due to mesoscale effects of mainland cooling.
Forecast soundings suggest the lower inhibition layer will
dissipate overnight with the help of some lower level lift.
However, the lift is expected to wane overnight. While a few
showers will be technically possible late in the night, the loss
of lift should limit their ability to flourish. For now, will
keep mention of PoPs out of the forecast. Overnight lows will fall
in the lower 70s with dew points holding near 70.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1030 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2024

A broad high off the Atlantic coast will maintain moderate east
to southeasterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight
period. Winds are expected to veer a bit more and strengthen
modestly as the mainland cools. A caution remains in effect for
the Florida Straits.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the island temrinals through the
overnight period. Surface winds will be gentle out of the east to
east southeast.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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