Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 160229

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1029 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Ridging across the Florida peninsula continues to result in a
rather unremarkable pattern across the Florida Keys and surrounding
coastal waters. Temperatures are in the mid 80s this evening with
dew points in the mid to upper 70s across the island chain.
Easterly surfaces winds are evident across land and marine
observation locations, with the evening KEY RAOB maintaining
unidirectional flow and very little shear all the way to the jet
stream level. One big difference compared to this time yesterday -
total atmospheric moisture. A PWAT of near 2.1 inches was
recorded at 00z, with CIMSS MIMIC and GOES derived PWAT imagery
also in good agreement. Much of this moisture is located in the
lowest levels of the atmosphere, with mixed layer CAPE well over
2000 J/kg and very little convective inhibition. A synoptic
lifting mechanism is the only thing missing from the convective
initiation equation. We will have to leave that to the mesoscale.

No changes were necessary for the evening update. Chance PoPs are
appropriate given current radar and satellite trends, showing
scattered low-level boundaries and resultant showers moving
westward away from the Bahamas. Localized convergence along these
boundaries will be enough to maintain scattered coverage of showers
and isolated thunderstorms, given the unstable state of the
atmosphere. Temperatures will fall to near 80 degrees overnight,
assisted by higher chances for showers compared to last night.


No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the coastal
waters of the Florida Keys. From the synopsis: A high pressure cell
will extend west across Florida through the forecast period.
Gentle to moderate, east to southeast breezes will prevail across
the coastal waters of the Florida Keys.


VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals. With that said,
brief spells of sub VFR conditions will be possible later tonight
due to widely scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms
well upstream of the terminals. Timing is uncertain. Surface
winds will be around 10 knots with gusts near 15 knots.




Data Collection......SD

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