Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
628 FXUS62 KKEY 241832 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 232 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025 The weather has remain pleasant, albeit a little humid today. Skies have remained fairly cloud free, which has allowed for abundant sunshine to permeate across the island chain. Temperatures have warmed up into the lower 80s and dew points are holding around 70 degree. Expanding our field of vision real quick, we can see a robust, healthy cluster of convection across the central Gulf. This cluster has been slowly sliding east and southeast through the morning and afternoon hours. The reason we mention this is because the outflow boundaries from these storms could propagate southeast into at least portions of our waters overnight. Given that low level ridging remains in place across the area, not expecting convection to survive the trek this evening and overnight. Likewise, the more stable air mass in place should help to mix out most of these outflow boundaries. Therefore, confidence is low that we will see an uptick in winds across the outer Gulf waters tonight. In addition, confidence is low for any lingering showers across the same area. As we go into Tuesday, we are still monitoring am upper level shortwave that will move across the Gulf and over South Florida. The models continue to show a disconnect with the low levels stuck in weak ridging. Looking at forecast soundings, the low level flow is that of backing, not veering. So this throws into question how if at all the upper level short wave will be able to interact and produce precipitation. Model guidance has backed off and likewise have trended PoPs back down. The other fly in the ointment is what will occur across the mainland. Weak ridging will allow for a thermal trough to develop across the southern half of the Peninsula. This could allow for seabreezes to collide and some showers and thunderstorms could fire along these collisions. At the same time, the low level steering flow is from the northwest to north. This may allow for some convection to drift across the Florida Bay, Upper Keys, and Hawk Channel waters. Wednesday a reinforcing high will slide into the southeast U.S., bringing with it a backdoor front. There may be enough lift and moisture that we could squeeze out a narrow band of showers. Convection potentially firing over the southern mainland could once again drift into the Upper Keys and surrounding waters. As the high builds, the pressure gradient will tighten and we can expect an easterly surge in winds starting late Thursday. The speed convergence coupled with a fairly moist boundary layer may at times allow for isolated to scattered light showers through the end of the week and into the weekend. Gradient begins to break down Saturday night and winds will gradually relax. No air mass changes expected so day time highs will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s at times. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 232 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Weak low level ridging will dominate through the first half of the week, keeping breezes light and largely easterly. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly due to storms drifting off the mainland. A weak front may press south through the Keys sometime Wednesday night or Thursday. In the wake of the weak front, strong high pressure builds in behind it leading to freshening easterly breezes through the latter half of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 232 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals through the TAF period. Some VCSH activity is possible late Tuesday morning, but areal coverage should be limited and timing is too uncertain to include in the present TAF. Winds will be from the east to southeast at around 10 knots until sunrise Tuesday, when slackening to around 5 knots will occur. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 73 82 71 80 / 10 10 20 10 Marathon 73 81 71 80 / 10 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....MC Data Acquisition.....MC Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest