Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 300912

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
512 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

Under partly cloudy skies and a steady east to southeast wind
of 10 to 15 mph, temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s along
the island chain. Meanwhile, local radars are detecting isolated
sprinkles only on the Florida Straits. On our marine district,
winds range from 10 knots at Carysfort Reef Light to 13 knots at
Sombrero Key light, but higher winds on the coastal waters south
of the Florida Keys.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
A western Atlantic surface ridge reaching across the Sunshine
State and into the Gulf of Mexico today, will settle southward
to across our region and then to the archipelago of Cuba on
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Meanwhile, an extremely positively
tilted deep layered trough, accompanied by a weak cold front will
move into the extreme Southeast Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday
morning, and then to along the northern coast of the island of Cuba
late Wednesday. Precipitation wise, only nickle pops will be
retained in the grids due to limited moisture and a decelerating
low level flow through Wednesday evening. For late Tuesday night
and Wednesday, despite no distinct mid and upper level ascent, low
level speed confluence associated with the weak cold front will
prompt rain chances to increase into the chance category by early
Wednesday morning. Temperatures will remain well above normal with
daytime highs generally in the mid 80s and overnight lows in he
mid 70s.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
In wake of the weak cold front, a large region of high
pressure over the Eastern United States, equatorward into
the Gulf of Mexico will move quickly eastward into the Northwest
Atlantic Ocean. This high pressure cell will press southward to
just offshore of the Southeast United States and the Florida
Peninsula, with a ridge extending back across the Florida
Peninsula next weekend. As a result, winds will quickly turn east
to southeast allowing a gradual increase in low level moisture.
With that, isolated 10 to 20 percent rain chances will be kept
beginning on Friday. High temperatures will average in the lower
80s with overnight lows generally in the lower 70s.


Gentle to moderate southeast breezes with the higher winds
on the Straits of Florida are expected through tonight, before
clocking around to south and then west into the light to gentle
range Tuesday and Tuesday evening. Beyond that, a weak cold front
associated with a brief spell of moderate to fresh west to
northwest winds, with the higher winds adjacent to the Upper Keys
are anticipated Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Thereafter, winds
will slacken and clock around to east on Thursday, before
freshening late in the week.


VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. Brief
spells of MVFR ceilings will be possible, mainly in the early
morning hours. Surface winds will generally be gentle out of the
east to southeast.


In 1948, the daily record low temperature of 58 degrees was
recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872.


Key West 84 76 84 75 / 0 - - 20
Marathon 87 77 87 75 / 0 - - 20





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