Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 150851
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
151 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Sunday will be dry but breezy. A cold front will move
across Nevada on Monday bringing stronger winds to most of the
Great Basin. Cooler after the cold front with some valley rains
and mountain snows developing Monday and Monday night.



&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday.

Strong upper low over Vancouver Island is turning upper flow over
the Great Basin to the southwest, but still dry and downsloping
today and tonight. Moist air begins to invade northwest Nevada
Monday afternoon and by Monday night models agree on enough cold
air aloft to bring snow levels down below 10k feet over much of
the area (higher in the southeast) and below 8500 feet over most
of Humboldt County. Instability with cold air aloft will produce
isolated thunder over Humboldt County Monday evening, but should
be short lived as colder boundary layer air moves in and
stabilizes the column.

Valley rains and mountain snows move south and east Monday night
and early Tuesday. Tuesday afternoon, the closed low is an open
sharp trough over the Basin and moving east, dragging showers with
it.

High temps go from 80s today, above normal, to mostly 70s post
fropa Monday, to 60s and a few 70s Tuesday. Lows 40s tonight to
30s Tuesday morning with 20s in various more open valleys.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Sunday.

Warmer and drier conditions will move into the state Tuesday night
into Wednesday as the Tuesday trough departs the region. Southwest
flow returns Wednesday ahead of the next trough/low expected to
impact Nevada Thursday bringing more rain and mountain snow.
Precipitation could begin Wednesday afternoon across western Humboldt
county with more widespread showers along with cooler
temperatures during the day on Thursday. Forecast confidence
decreases for the later part of the week but the region could
continue to see an active weather pattern. Temperatures will be
warmest Wednesday in the 70s and 80s with 60s and 70s expected for
the latter half of the week. Overall however, these disturbances
do not appear to be too impactful for this time of year with snow
staying well above valley floors.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR for all terminals for the next 24 hours. Breezy
and gusty afternoon winds will occur at all terminals during the
day.

Note:KBAM AMD NOT SKED due to missing clouds/cigs.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag Warning zone 467 today for winds/RH.
Winds could gust 45 mph or higher on peaks and more open spots.
Fire Weather Watch for zones 454, 455, 457, 469, and 470 Monday
for winds/RH. Winds there could gust over 50 mph especially on
ridgetops.

Cold front will drop into the region Monday turning winds from
south and southwest Sunday to west and northwest Monday. Winds on
Tuesday weekend and return to mostly west and southwest.

Some rain showers develop over northwest Nevada Monday and spread
across much of the Great Basin by Monday evening. Isolated mostly
wet thunderstorms will also develop later Monday over mostly zone
467 but should be short lived. Snow levels drop after the front to
around 6500 feet in northwest zone 467, gradually rising to around
8500 feet in southeast parts of 455 and 457.

Tuesday dries out more but stays cooler than normal.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for Central Lander and Eureka Counties-Eastern Elko County-
Northern Nye County/Lander and Eureka Counties South of Highway
50-Southwestern and Central Elko County-White Pine County.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this
evening for Central and Western Humboldt County.

&&

$$

98/93/99/98


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