Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 241854

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1154 AM PDT Sat Oct 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will bring a few rain and snow showers
into northern Elko County today, eastern Elko County tonight, and
White Pine County on Sunday morning. It will also bring gusty
winds over the weekend and much colder air beginning on Sunday,
with some record low temperatures likely on Monday morning.


.FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...Model simulations are showing gusty winds
and marginal RH values for Sunday, which will lead to elevated
fire concerns for much of central Nevada, including the valley
areas of 426 and the southern portions of 425. However, there are
increasing concern regarding Monday in the central area, with
elevated conditions seen in the southern portions of 425 and 427,
though models are showing critical conditions in 426. Therefore,
have went with a fire weather watch for 426 on Monday. No other
changes are planned at this time, and text products have been



SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday

A cold front will enter the state from the north today. The front
will begin moving into northern Elko County late this morning and
there will be a chance for rain and snow showers there through
the afternoon, with the best chances closer to the Idaho border.
There is not a lot of moisture with the frontal passage in our
area, so precipitation should be .10" of liquid at best there,
with perhaps a quarter inch in the Jarbidge Mountains. Snow levels
start off around 7500-8500 feet and drop to 4000-5000 feet by
evening. Jarbidge may see a little snow accumulation, though its
looking like it would be less than 1/2", with perhaps an inch or
two in their mountains. Elsewhere, it will be a partly cloudy day
in the remainder of northern Nevada and mainly sunny in central
Nevada. There will be a fairly large temperature gradient for
high`s due to the frontal position, with 50`s to 60`s in northern
Nevada to the 60`s & 70`s in central Nevada. There will also be
some gusty afternoon winds with strongest gusts of 25-30 mph in
the valleys.

The front continues its southward movement this evening and into
tonight and there will be a chance for some showers in eastern
Elko County and in the Ruby mountains. Once again, any shower
will likely produce less then .05" of precipitation, with perhaps
some snowflakes falling but very little chance for any
accumulating snow.

Early morning lows on Sunday will be in the teens in northern
Nevada, behind the front, and in the 20`s to 30`s in central
Nevada, ahead of the front. By early morning Sunday, the cold
front is expected to be moving southward into White Pine County
and will be south of the county in the afternoon. Same story:
very light precipitation for showers and some snowflakes
around...possibly a half inch or so of snow in Great Basin
National Park. The much colder air mass that will be in place
behind the cold front will only allow highs to reach into the 30`s
and 40`s (and even the 20`s in parts of northern Elko County).
There will also be some brisk gusty north winds which will make
for quite a chilly Sunday.

LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Saturday.

Model agreement has been very consistent on the elongated trough
making its exit from the region by Monday night, with GFS being a
little faster in its exit and eastward propagation. Light snow
showers are still a possibility in the SE corner of central Nevada
through Sunday night, but current guidance agrees that any
lingering showers will wrap up by Monday morning. As the front
passes, breezy conditions become prevalent in south central Nevada
with cold air and temperatures becoming the major concern around
the region. Afternoon temperatures for Monday are expected to drop
into the 40s for most locations. Meanwhile, overnight
temperatures plummet into the teens and single digits well into
Tuesday morning. Look for Monday morning to bring record level
lows around the state, with some of are normal cold spots nearing
or going below zero. As we approach Tuesday afternoon, model
agreement present another ridge making its way into Nevada from
the West Coast, bringing a return to dry and warm conditions. As
early as Tuesday afternoon, temperatures look to rebound back into
high 50s and then to proceed to continue to warm back above the
normal for October. By the weeks end, afternoon temperatures look
to return into the high 60s to low 70s.

AVIATION...A strong cold front will approach the region from
Oregon and Idaho which will cause westerly breezes to increase on
Saturday with gusts to around 25 kts. Cloud cover and a few light
rain/snow showers will accompany the frontal passage Saturday
evening through Sunday morning as winds shift to the north and
northeast. Expect clearing skies with breezy and colder conditions
on Sunday afternoon followed by record low temperatures in the
single digits early Monday morning.

FIRE WEATHER...A cold front will move through the state this
weekend. This does not have much moisture associated with it,
though it is expected to bring a shot of even colder air to the
region. There will be gusty westerly winds ahead of the front
this afternoon, with strongest gusts around 25 to 30 mph or so. RH
is expected to be in the 25 to 35 degree range in northern Nevada
which will mitigate critical Fire Weather conditions. However, RH
values are expected to be 15 to 20 degrees in FW Zone 425 and
though this is a bit above critical levels, the combination of
very dry fuels and gusty winds bring elevated fire weather
concerns there. An SPS was issued earlier today to address those
concerns. Sunday will be much colder, with brisk northerly gusty
winds and higher RH.


Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for Northern Nye County-Mojave.



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