Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 182323
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
623 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across the
region this afternoon. This is leading to plenty of sun and
temperatures climbing into the mid 90s for many. If there`s an
exception, it`s the Cumberland Plateau. Hi-res models continue to
hint at a shower popping up along northern portions of the
Plateau just before sunset. The cu field that has developed over
there in the last couple of hours would suggest there just enough
lift to get the clouds, but it`s so dry, I would be very surprised
to see anyone measure any rain today. In case one little shower
decides to poke through the cap, I`ll leave a 20 PoP in there, but
it`s looking less and less likely.

Today marks the 23rd day in a row in which we`ve been dry at
Nashville airport (yes, we measured 0.01" on the Sept 10th, but
in the grand scheme of things, that`s dry). Unfortunately, things
don`t look any better in the 7-10 day forecast. The GFS continues
to hint at a boundary moving into the region Sunday night/Monday,
but I have to go with persistence here. The Euro dries that
boundary out as it reaches Middle TN and I have to lean that
direction until a weather system of significance tries to push
into the region.

As far as temperatures go, I`ve been noticing a curious trend in
many MOS guidance numbers -- they want to cool things off
considerably. I`m having a tough time with this. If we`re dry and
continue to have the upper level ridge influence our weather here,
I don`t see why our highs should drop into the 80s (some have
lower 80s). Yes, we should back off a bit, but low 90s seem to be
more likely for the rest of this week and into the weekend. If
that boundary Sunday night does make it in here, dry or not, it
should help moderate temperatures for the start of next week. Will
run with a heavy blend of the highest Euro member through Saturday
to keep afternoon highs in line with the current pattern.

What is likely to be more noticeable the rest of this week is
morning lows. Lower dew points continue to spread into the mid-
state, which should allow for some upper 50s east of I-65 Friday and
Saturday mornings.

Due to the dry conditions, several counties around Middle TN have
issued burn bans. Please check with your local county authorities
before burning outdoors for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions at all TAF sites through the forecast period. Light
northerly winds will become southerly overnight, with steady 10kt
winds for tomorrow.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........05


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