260
FXUS64 KOHX 191747
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1247 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon with
  potential for strong wind gusts east of I-65.

- Fog development likely tonight with dense fog potentially
  impacting Friday morning commute.

- Summer-like heat and drier weather builds in over the weekend
  and persists into next week. Heat index values 100+ degrees are
  likely each afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

A shortwave trough continues east across the eastern CONUS today.
This disturbance was responsible for overnight storms, including
the MCS that moved across Middle TN this morning, which has now
plowed south into MS and AL. We`re now left in its wake with a
large cold pool across the TN Valley evident on mesoanalysis by a
CAPE deficit covering Middle TN. Thus, for now, we`re stable and
activity has calmed. However, the synoptic cold front still looms
off to our north and skies are clearing. It appears
destabilization will occur again this afternoon with westerly
winds ahead of the front. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are expected along the front, with best coverage
east of I-65 where the best support aloft will be, as well as
orographic lift. RAP soundings depict ~2,000 J/kg SBCAPE and ~35
kts eff. bulk shear, as well as 900-1,200 J/kg DCAPE (downdraft
CAPE). This suggests some stronger storm potential with strong
wind gusts. SPC has trimmed back the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5),
but we`ll watch any stronger storms regardless of where they form
this afternoon.

Most convective activity seems to be pushing out of here close to
sunset around which time winds are forecast to calm with clearing
skies. With saturated soils and cooling temperatures overnight,
fog development is likely. Dense fog will be possible for areas
east of I-65. Plan accordingly for the Friday morning commute.

If you`re sick of the rain like me, there`s good news: it appears
we`ve finally gotten through the worst of this persistent wet
pattern around here. However, the price comes through increasing
temperatures that begin tomorrow thanks to ridging that builds
into the region from the southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Heat will be the main weather headline for the long-term forecast
period as a strong signal for deep-layer ridging moves into the
eastern CONUS by Saturday. This large ridge is projected to persist
in the region for several days per medium-range guidance and
ensembles. In fact, 500 mb heights could reach as high as 598
decameters near Virginia by Monday. As such, an extended period
of relatively dry weather is forecast across Middle TN with
temperatures running 5-10 degrees above average. This places highs
in the low to upper 90s most days next week with heat index
values in the 100s depending upon where dewpoints settle out each
afternoon. Rain chances each day remain 10-20%, and those isolated
showers/storms may be our only reprieve from the heat wave until
the synoptic pattern changes. Ensembles don`t show the temperature
and height anomalies relaxing until next weekend, a few days
outside of the current forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Conditions have improved since the morning complex of
thunderstorms moved across Middle TN. Skies are clearing, though
there`s a band of MVFR cigs over CKV moving toward BNA - I`ve
TEMPO`d that. Winds are southwesterly at 5-8 kts ahead of a front.

For the afternoon, scattered showers/storms are expected along the
front. TEMPOs were implemented ~21z for all terminals minus CKV
which should stay west of the activity. Impacts from any
convection should be fairly brief.

Conditions calm this evening with relatively clear skies.
However, we`re in a favorable scenario for fog development
overnight. SRB/CSV will likely go down to IFR vis after Midnight
and stay down through sunrise tomorrow. BNA/MQY also have fog
potential, but I`ve stayed more conservative in the TAF for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      69  91  71  94 /   0   0   0  10
Clarksville    67  90  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     61  85  63  87 /  10   0   0   0
Columbia       67  90  68  92 /   0   0   0  10
Cookeville     64  85  66  89 /  10   0   0   0
Jamestown      61  85  63  89 /  10   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   66  89  68  92 /  10   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   66  90  68  94 /  10   0   0  10
Waverly        66  90  70  92 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Sizemore