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000
FXUS64 KOHX 242334
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
534 PM CST Wed Feb 24 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

It`s a warm one out there this afternoon, but worry not; we`re
nowhere near record values. The record high for today`s date is 81
set waaay back in 2017. Somebody will have to tilt the earth a
little more for that to occur today. Other than the warmth, it`s
a little breezy and clouds are starting to build in from the
northwest. These are associated with the light rain that is
expected this evening. Again, not much to get excited about as
latest guidance would suggest some will get none and a few will
only see a couple hundredths by sunrise.

The big story with this forecast package continues to be the heavy
rainfall expected this weekend. If there`s any good news, it comes
in the form of confidence because models continue to zero in on a
4 to 6 inch solution from Friday until Monday morning. All of this
is due to what looks to be a stationary boundary that sets up
Friday night and hangs around through the weekend. Multiple
shortwaves traverse the boundary as it sits over the mid-state and
because of this, we very well could be looking at widespread flooding
issues as early as noon on Sunday. PWs continue to be anomalously
high for this time of the year (forecast soundings are showing
record numbers Saturday night into Sunday) and an impending low-
level jet will only work to enhance rainfall rates both Saturday
and Sunday. Included in all of this, I`ve maintained a slight
chance of thunder starting Friday night and while this will give
some a rumble of thunder, any convective enhancement will only
fuel rainfall efficiency. I wouldn`t be surprised if we`re talking
Flood Watches at this time tomorrow for the weekend.

What could end up being a bigger issue is the runoff. Grounds
likely won`t absorb all of this rainfall, which will cause quick
rises on area rivers and creeks. Forecast ensembles run by our
River Forecast Centers are suggesting minor and *possibly* even
moderate flooding on a few rivers in Middle TN by Monday. You will
need to monitor this closely if you have interests near Middle TN
rivers that flood regularly.

All of this should come to an end on Monday, however, the Euro
continues to show yet another system moving into the area on
Tuesday. While the GFS isn`t currently showing this same system,
if the Euro verifies, additional flooding could be a concern.

For now, enjoy the beautiful day and check back with us over the
next 24-48 hours for the latest information regarding this
weekend`s heavy rainfall forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Chances for showers will continue this evening for KCKV/KBNA/KMQY
and during the early overnight hours for KCSV. Cigs may drop to
MVFR before sunrise, but are expected to return to VFR by mid
morning should MVFR cigs develop. Southwesterly winds around 10
knots will become northwesterly this evening and finally northerly
overnight into the day Thursday around 10 knots gusting to 15
knots.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........Barnwell