


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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260 FXUS64 KOHX 191747 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1247 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon with potential for strong wind gusts east of I-65. - Fog development likely tonight with dense fog potentially impacting Friday morning commute. - Summer-like heat and drier weather builds in over the weekend and persists into next week. Heat index values 100+ degrees are likely each afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 A shortwave trough continues east across the eastern CONUS today. This disturbance was responsible for overnight storms, including the MCS that moved across Middle TN this morning, which has now plowed south into MS and AL. We`re now left in its wake with a large cold pool across the TN Valley evident on mesoanalysis by a CAPE deficit covering Middle TN. Thus, for now, we`re stable and activity has calmed. However, the synoptic cold front still looms off to our north and skies are clearing. It appears destabilization will occur again this afternoon with westerly winds ahead of the front. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected along the front, with best coverage east of I-65 where the best support aloft will be, as well as orographic lift. RAP soundings depict ~2,000 J/kg SBCAPE and ~35 kts eff. bulk shear, as well as 900-1,200 J/kg DCAPE (downdraft CAPE). This suggests some stronger storm potential with strong wind gusts. SPC has trimmed back the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5), but we`ll watch any stronger storms regardless of where they form this afternoon. Most convective activity seems to be pushing out of here close to sunset around which time winds are forecast to calm with clearing skies. With saturated soils and cooling temperatures overnight, fog development is likely. Dense fog will be possible for areas east of I-65. Plan accordingly for the Friday morning commute. If you`re sick of the rain like me, there`s good news: it appears we`ve finally gotten through the worst of this persistent wet pattern around here. However, the price comes through increasing temperatures that begin tomorrow thanks to ridging that builds into the region from the southwest. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Heat will be the main weather headline for the long-term forecast period as a strong signal for deep-layer ridging moves into the eastern CONUS by Saturday. This large ridge is projected to persist in the region for several days per medium-range guidance and ensembles. In fact, 500 mb heights could reach as high as 598 decameters near Virginia by Monday. As such, an extended period of relatively dry weather is forecast across Middle TN with temperatures running 5-10 degrees above average. This places highs in the low to upper 90s most days next week with heat index values in the 100s depending upon where dewpoints settle out each afternoon. Rain chances each day remain 10-20%, and those isolated showers/storms may be our only reprieve from the heat wave until the synoptic pattern changes. Ensembles don`t show the temperature and height anomalies relaxing until next weekend, a few days outside of the current forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Conditions have improved since the morning complex of thunderstorms moved across Middle TN. Skies are clearing, though there`s a band of MVFR cigs over CKV moving toward BNA - I`ve TEMPO`d that. Winds are southwesterly at 5-8 kts ahead of a front. For the afternoon, scattered showers/storms are expected along the front. TEMPOs were implemented ~21z for all terminals minus CKV which should stay west of the activity. Impacts from any convection should be fairly brief. Conditions calm this evening with relatively clear skies. However, we`re in a favorable scenario for fog development overnight. SRB/CSV will likely go down to IFR vis after Midnight and stay down through sunrise tomorrow. BNA/MQY also have fog potential, but I`ve stayed more conservative in the TAF for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 69 91 71 94 / 0 0 0 10 Clarksville 67 90 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 61 85 63 87 / 10 0 0 0 Columbia 67 90 68 92 / 0 0 0 10 Cookeville 64 85 66 89 / 10 0 0 0 Jamestown 61 85 63 89 / 10 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 66 89 68 92 / 10 0 0 10 Murfreesboro 66 90 68 94 / 10 0 0 10 Waverly 66 90 70 92 / 0 0 0 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Sizemore