000
FXUS64 KOHX 130018
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
718 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 709 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- Dangerous heat expected through the weekend with triple digit
  heat indices west of the Cumberland Plateau.

- Low to medium thunderstorm chances primarily east of I-65 each
  afternoon and evening through Thursday. Stronger storms will be
  capable of damaging winds and heavy rain.

- Drier and even hotter conditions favored Friday through the
  weekend followed by some minor relief early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 709 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Another hot and humid day across Middle TN, with temperatures in
the low 90s, partly cloudy skies, and light winds. A Heat Advisory
remains in place. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
have been developing across the area this evening and are
beginning to diminish. Another round of showers and storms will
work there way through later tonight, but confidence is lower on
exact coverage area. Best chances will be N of I-40 and across the
Upper Cumberland. Heavy rain and gusty winds will be the main
threat as the storms move through tonight (current estimates
suggest after 9 PM). Some isolated showers may still be lingering
by early Thursday morning, before another hot and humid day sets
up.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1117 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

High pressure continues to build across the southeast US, but Middle
TN remains in northwest flow. Hot & humid conditions persist with
high temperatures this afternoon expected to reach into the mid-90s
west of the Plateau with heat indices in the triple digits. With
plenty of instability, DCAPE, and moisture available, the door is
still open for another MCS to move through this afternoon or into
the evening hours. Radar trends this morning have been showing
activity developing to the north and tracking southeast, and CAMs
are still showing the potential for some storms to impact areas east
of I-65. As with yesterday, any storms that do develop will have the
potential for produce strong to damaging winds as well as heavy
rain. Any activity should diminish late this evening or overnight.

On Thursday, the high pressure builds a little more north which
helps to lower thunderstorm chances. They won`t be completely
zero, but low chances (15-30%) will persist still mainly east of
I-65. Otherwise, under more influence of the high, temperatures
will only warm further with highs reaching into the mid and
upper-90s and heat indices of 105 to 110 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1117 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

The high builds more overhead Friday and into the weekend which
should lend itself to a dry weekend. But that does mean our hottest
temperatures of this heat wave are anticipated for the weekend. Many
locations will be near the 100-degree mark Friday, and probabilities
are high that several will get there Saturday and/or Sunday. NBM
probabilities west of the Plateau for at least 100 Saturday is 40-
70% (80% at Nashville) with Sunday probabilities up to 60-80% (90%
at Nashville). These temperatures, heat index values of 105-110+,
and overnight temperatures in the mid to upper-70s will make for
major to extreme heat risk for all. Be sure to take care of yourself
by limiting your time outdoors and staying hydrated. Take care of
others as well by checking in on those who are more vulnerable to
heat.

These hot temperatures look to persist into Monday, but the heat
wave will finally break come Tuesday as the high moves off the west
and a front comes down from the south. This pattern change will also
increase rain and thunderstorm chances yet again early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

A repeat of Tuesday night`s forecast is unfolding this evening as
another MCS sinks through Kentucky. Given how well the complex of
storms approaching Middle TN is holding together (and how little
grasp the CAMs have on its future), opted to hang onto PROB30s at
all sites for the next several hours. This line may crumble apart
altogether, or it may hold together even better than last night.
Other than a very uncertain convective forecast, the rest is
essentially a persistence forecast with light south/southwest
winds and scattered Cu with cirrus shields overspreading the area
from anvils upstream.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      76  96  77  98 /  20  30  10  10
Clarksville    75  96  77  97 /  20  10   0   0
Crossville     70  87  72  89 /  40  20  10  10
Columbia       75  97  77  99 /  20  10  10   0
Cookeville     72  90  74  92 /  30  30  10  10
Jamestown      70  88  72  90 /  40  30  30  10
Lawrenceburg   74  95  76  96 /  20  10  10  10
Murfreesboro   74  96  76  98 /  20  30  10  10
Waverly        75  97  76  97 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ005>010-023>033-
056>065-075-077-078-093>095.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Cravens
SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Dirkes