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000
FXUS64 KOHX 231920
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
220 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Not a whole lot happening weather-wise in the short-term. Bermuda
high, although weak, will remain in control really on up into the
weekend. On Friday, will do seem to have a ML/UL wave swinging
across, but even then the OH valley more likely to see widespread
pcpn than the mid-state. Overall what was looking like a very wet
weekend, models continue to trend the frontal boundary/heavier rain
axis further northwest. Even by Monday morning, the main frontal
boundary still remains northwest, but we do get a surge of deeper
moisture ahead on Sunday. Thus this will be when we start to see
at least isolated/scattered development across the mid-state, with
Saturday being dry most of the area.

Deeper moisture will remain over the mid-south the beginning of next
week but overall we will not being seeing really anything organized.
We are most likely looking at the isolated/scattered develop Monday/
Tuesday, especially in the afternoons. By mid-week, things look to
get a little more organized as an upper trough approaches, and
possibly brings a front across the area next Thursday night.
Parameters are such that severe storms are quite unlikely the next
week, but storm development will increase steadily Monday through
Wednesday.

Heavy rain was also possibly an issue next week, but now with the
frontal boundary remain well northwest most of the period, even the
chance for localized flooding quite low.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Gusty, southerly winds are
expected tomorrow afternoon after 15Z with gusts upwards of 15 to
20 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      63  90  70  87  70 /   0   0   0  10   0
Clarksville    60  87  70  85  70 /   0  10   0  20  10
Crossville     60  81  61  81  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Columbia       61  87  68  86  67 /   0   0   0  10   0
Lawrenceburg   62  86  67  85  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waverly        62  88  70  86  71 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......07
AVIATION........Adcock