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000
FXUS64 KOHX 200443
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1043 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

No major changes to the forecast this evening or for Thursday
morning snow potential. We will adjust hourly temps, dew points,
and pops slightly. Messaging remains the same. First look at new
NAM looks a little too cold with low levels with too much
moisture. Short range CAMs seem pretty good though and line up
well enough with our forecast.

Our 00Z OHX upper air shows very dry air. This dry air was
associated with a strong high pressure system centered over
Fargo, ND. NNE winds will continue to bring coolish and dry air
overnight.

A couple of shortwave troughs will come together to bring our
precipitation chances for tomorrow morning- one already producing
precip over the Lowe Ms Valley and another wave coming down from
the Central Plains. Our area will be located along the northern
edge of the expanding precip shield, so incoming moisture will be
battling the dry air in place. As precipitation becomes heavier,
the air will moisten and evaporative cooling will become a factor,
so some light snow is a good bet. Negative factors for
accumulation include mostly or all above freezing surface air
temps and warm ground. We continue to expect accums mainly south
of I-40, mainly on grassy areas. If there are locations that could
over-achieve, it could be our Plateau where snow may hang on well
into the afternoon and temps may hover near freezing. This could
boost localized amounts to 1 inch or a bit more for some high
elevations spots. The overnight crew may consider an advisory for
that area, but the rest of the Mid State should have few if any
travel impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions will continue this TAF period at CKV/BNA/MQY
although cigs will gradually lower with VCSH after 11-13Z. At CSV,
a mix of light rain/snow will develop by 11-12Z becoming all snow
by 14Z, with cigs/visibility lowering into the IFR category. Snow
will end at CSV by 21Z with a quick return to MVFR/VFR
conditions. North to northeast winds gusting up to 20 knots are
expected to continue through the TAF period at all airports.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......13
AVIATION........Shamburger