755
FXUS64 KOHX 131739
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1239 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

- Rain and thunderstorms continue through the week, best chances
  are in the afternoon/evening hours.

- Risk of severe weather is low, however, localized heavy rain,
  gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be possible with
  isolated stronger storms.

- Warmth continues into the work week, with afternoon heat index
  values over 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1039 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Things are playing out similar this morning to yesterday. The Cu
along and east of I-65 have become agitated with a few showers
developing. Those showers will mature as they move east this
morning with some producing lightning. Further west, some isolated
to scattered storms will develop this afternoon. Shear is once
again weak, and PWAT values are back to 1.8-2" Storms will be
capable of heavy rainfall and an occasional wind gust to 40 mph.
Diurnal activity will decrease this evening with some patchy fog
after midnight. Monday will be similar with diurnal activity.
Today and Monday will see highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dew
points will be in the low to mid 70s which will give us afternoon
heat index values in the upper 90s to lower 100s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1039 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

There`s no pattern change in the extended forecast with daily storm
chances and temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Afternoon heat index
values may begin to reach 105 to 108 in some locations west of the
plateau beginning Tuesday and continuing through Thursday. Overnight
lows through the forecast will be in the low to mid 70s with the
exception being the cooler locations along the plateau where
temperatures will drop to the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

At KBNA...afternoon showers and storms approaching from the west
today, so have included thunderstorm mention in forecast from
2000z through 0100z. Wouldn`t be surprised if we have a pop-up
earlier. Otherwise, light winds and no cig/vis restrictions
outside of storms. For other sites...afternoon showers and storms
expected in vicinity, if not impacting airports. Overnight, winds
diminish and could see some IFR vis due to fog at KSRB and KCSV.
Clouds should hamper fog development at KCKV and KSRB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  93  75  94 /  20  50  10  30
Clarksville    73  89  74  92 /  40  50  10  40
Crossville     66  87  67  89 /  20  50  10  50
Columbia       71  92  72  93 /  20  50  10  30
Cookeville     69  88  70  90 /  30  60  10  40
Jamestown      67  87  68  88 /  20  60  10  40
Lawrenceburg   71  91  72  93 /  10  50  10  30
Murfreesboro   71  93  72  94 /  20  50  10  30
Waverly        71  89  72  91 /  30  50  10  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Husted