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000
FXUS64 KOHX 030123
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
823 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022

Convective coverage is slowly decreasing this evening. This is
handled well by the grids which currently have pops trending
toward 20 percent overnight. Will make no adjustments to this.
Otw, will bump up the patchy fog potential. Dewpoint spreads are
lower especially along the Plateau where the recent rainfall has
pushed spreads down to just 3-5F in many areas. Update out
shortly.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday Night)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue across mid
state region through Sunday evening. This is mainly because of
zonal flow aloft that will be developing more northwesterly
characteristics as Sunday progresses. Surface front should remain
to our north. Highs on Sunday will range upper 80s to lower 90s,
mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region. Mild overnight lows in low to
mid 70s, upper 60s to around 70 Cumberland Plateau Region expected
tonight and again on Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Independence Day through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022

Upper level ridging influences will strengthen across mid state
region as Independence Day through much of next work week
progresses. Again, surface fronts should remain to our north.
Enough moisture should be around mid state region to interact
with diurnal influences to support development of scattered
showers and thunderstorms each day that might bring some temporary
relief to expected hot and humid conditions. Heat index values
may reach into 105 to 110 range during afternoon hours Tuesday
through Thursday. Latest blended model consensus solution showing
a weakening of upper level ridging dynamics across our area region
Friday into first part of upcoming weekend with slightly cooler
temperatures and humidity levels and potentially scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms expected. Look for a general
trend of highs in low to mid 90s, upper 80s to around 90
Cumberland Plateau Region with muggy lows in low to mid 70s,
upper 60s to around 70 Cumberland Plateau Region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022

Stationary frontal boundary expected to remain generally just
north of the mid state through the taf period. Look for scattered
afternoon and evening showers and tstms with the activity becoming
more isolated during the overnight hours.

Looks like a better chance of fog late tonight, particularly near
CSV. Vsbys for that area could fall to the 1sm-3sm range late
tonight. Look for lighter fog at BNA and CKV.

Storms should remain in the general category. 850 mb wind speeds
will be very light with no real organization/strong lift expected.
Storm motions should remain toward the east at around 10 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  91  75  95 /  40  60  20  40
Clarksville    72  90  73  94 /  40  50  20  20
Crossville     68  84  67  86 /  40  70  40  50
Columbia       72  91  74  92 /  40  60  20  40
Cookeville     71  87  71  89 /  50  70  40  50
Jamestown      68  85  68  88 /  50  80  40  50
Lawrenceburg   72  89  73  92 /  30  60  20  40
Murfreesboro   73  92  74  94 /  30  60  20  40
Waverly        71  91  73  93 /  30  50  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......21
SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....21