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000
FXUS65 KVEF 220800
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
100 AM PDT Sun May 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A warming trend will bring temperatures up to late May
normals today and above normal for much of next week. Some slight
cooling is possible by next weekend. Otherwise, expect dry weather
to continue with occasional high clouds and breezy winds.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through tonight. Midnight satellite loop showed a few
thin cirrus clouds cruising through an otherwise clear sky. Surface
obs showed light winds and temperatures a few degrees warmer than 24
hours ago. Today will be on the quiet side, with minor breezes and
temperatures several degrees warmer than yesterday. This evening and
tonight, a weak cold front will work its way southward through the
southern Great Basin and northern Mojave Desert, bringing wind gusts
up to 35 mph possible in areas prone to northerly winds, and
potentially causing issues for any outdoor activities.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday.

An upper level ridge builds into the Southwest US the beginning of
the week which will result in a warming trend across the region.
Temperatures on Monday will be near normal before climbing above
normal for Tuesday and much of the week. The area of high pressure
should be overhead and have the strongest heights on Wednesday,
however here is some question in how strong the ridge will be at
this time though, with model ensembles showing differences in the
500mb anomaly fields for Wednesday. Thursday should be the peak of
the hot stretch as an incoming wave will tighten the pressure
gradient and allow for strong mixing into warm 850mb air despite
heights starting to fall as the ridge begins to shift east, but
again there remains some uncertainty as there are differing
solutions on the extent this trough will influence the ridge
Thursday. Ensemble whisker plots should a wide range in the
temperature forecast Wednesday and Thursday, but in general, high
temperatures should run at least 5 degrees (if not more) above
normal Wednesday afternoon, and then even warmer high temperatures
on Thursday.

The previously mentioned shortwave will dig through the West Coast
region Thursday into the end of the week, however there is a lot of
uncertainty with the system as models are having a hard time
deciding who will win the Ridge vs Trough battle. Cluster analysis
shows the area of high pressure being knocked down and/or shoved
east, but each cluster has a different timing and flavor of the
extent of how much influence this incoming trough will have on the
weather pattern. None of the solutions would result in high impact
weather, however the overall setup will influence temperatures and
winds (as well as fire weather concerns). High confidence
temperatures will cool off from their peak on Thursday, but low
confidence to what extent.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and variable winds less than 7
knots will continue through the morning. Southwest winds around 10
knots are expected to reach KLAS between 22-23Z today, with
occasional gusts around 15-20 knots through 03Z this evening. Winds
will shift to the north sometime early Monday with an arrival of a
weak cold front. Low confidence on whether the north winds will be
strong enough to reach KLAS until after sunrise though. Some FEW aoa
25 Kft will be possible through the forecast period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Light winds will give way to southwest breezes with
some occasional gusts around 15-20 knots this afternoon across much
of the region. Though, northerly winds will remain at KBIH through
today. A weak cold front will move across the region overnight
Monday shifting the winds to the north as it moves southward. Some
FEW aoa 25 Kft will be possible through the forecast period.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Morgan
LONG TERM...Nickerson
AVIATION...Peters

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