621
FXUS65 KVEF 111144
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
444 AM PDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Expect one more day of dry conditions and above normal
  temperatures.

* Monsoonal moisture pushes in this weekend, resulting in
  increased chances for showers and thunderstorms next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday.

High pressure overhead maintains high temperatures 5 to 8 degrees
above normal today and tomorrow, including highs near 110 degrees
for Las Vegas. These daytime highs combined with warm overnight
lows result in widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) with pockets of
Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk for most locations across the
forecast area. Breezy southwesterly winds in the afternoon should
weaken. However, gusty outflow winds from convection over the
Mogollon Rim may make it to Mohave County this evening.

The center of the high becomes situated over the Four Corners by
Sunday, allowing for monsoonal moisture advection that should last
through most of the week. Moisture will ebb and flow with slight
movements of the high each day. Convection on Sunday will
primarily be limited to northwestern Arizona, although isolated
convection may occur in southern Nevada, especially with outflow
boundaries. Convection spreads into the rest of southeastern
California and northwestern Arizona as moisture works north and
west. Daily convection should begin over high terrain as
orographic lift assists in storm formation, followed by outflow
driven convection later in the day. The primary threats on Sunday
and Monday will be gusty outflow winds and dry lightning as lower
levels remain dry. However, flash flooding increasingly becomes a
threat as the atmosphere saturates at lower levels by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light
and variable winds will settle out of the southeast (between
130-160 true) later this morning, increasing to around 10KT. These
southeasterly winds will then persist until early evening, and
while sustained speeds will remain around 10KT, sporadic gusts to
around 15KT will be possible during peak heating in the afternoon.
Early evening, winds shift to the southwest before backing
slightly to the south after daybreak Sunday. Sustained speeds
overnight will remain around 8KT. Increasing mid-level and high
clouds are expected through the period, though will not be
operationally significant. Temperatures will exceed 100F today
between 18Z-05Z, reaching a high of 110F around 00Z.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds across most of
the region will gradually shift and settle out of the south to
southeast later this morning, with speeds increasing to around
8-10KT before veering to the southwest this evening. In the
northern Owens Valley, including KBIH, as well as along the Lower
Colorado River Valley from KIFP to KEED, gusty up-valley winds
will develop late this morning through this evening, with gusts to
20-25KT expected, increasing to around 30KT at KBIH this
afternoon. Generally diurnal winds at KDAG will shift to the east-
southeast this afternoon, increasing to 10-15KT with gusts to
20-25KT, before shifting sharply to the west before sunset. Of
additional concern are thunderstorms expected to develop over
northern and central Arizona today that could send outflow
boundaries across northwestern Arizona this evening. VFR
conditions otherwise prevail with increasing mid-level and high
clouds at or above 12kft.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meltzer
AVIATION...Phillipson

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