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000
FXUS65 KVEF 252049
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1250 PM PST Thu Feb 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty north winds will continue this afternoon, mostly
for the Colorado River Valley but gradually decreasing over the rest
of the day. Temperatures will range 6 to 8 degrees below seasonal
averages this afternoon before rebounding back to normal for the end
of the work week. The next wind maker arrives Saturday and Sunday as
another system drops from the Pacific Northwest.

&&


.SHORT TERM...Today and Tomorrow.
As expected, winds are remaining gusty for the Colorado River Valley
which is what warranted the extension of the wind advisory through
00Z today. No expectation in changing that based off the latest
model information. Thus, a cooler and calmer night will be in store
tonight as we transition into the next system over the weekend.

Tomorrow will rebound temperatures back into the upper 50s to the
north and mid 70s in the southern CWA. Winds in the northern zones
will become breezy again with deepening surface pressure over Utah
Friday but impacts should be minimal as gusts stay below 35 mph
generally with a distinct drop off of the gradient further south.


.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.
Not much change still with the weekend system details from previous
discussions. Ensemble and deterministic solutions are more or less
in agreement for a southward diving shortwave evolving into a closed
low eventually over Arizona. Precip chances continue to be meager at
best, if any at all, with the main concern being wind potential.

As stated previously, many of the synoptic details are very similar
to yesterday but thermodynamically, a less intense thermal gradient
exists. As a result, less momentum is expected as the front
progresses southward and thus lesser in the gust category compared
to yesterday. This will still likely result in some wind advisory or
at least Lake Wind Advisory potential for Saturday/Sunday.
Otherwise, no other significant impacts look likely.

Into next week, frustratingly, GEFS vs EC/CMCE are even farther
apart for Tuesday/Wednesday than at this time yesterday. GEFS is
still strongly suggesting a closed low paired with AR moisture from
the Pacific impacting southern California and into southern Nevada
and northwest Arizona. Whereas there is impressive clustering of
members indicating another progressive shortwave will push southeast
from the Pacific NW. As a result, confidence has not increased much
in which outcome will prevail, but the NBM only modestly increased
PoPs for this period. So in summary, we are still looking at two
potential scenarios: A widespread rain maker Wed/Thu (GEFS), or a
brief precip maker and wind producer for Tue/Wed with a slight edge
going to the latter. More to come as models continue to come in!


&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Northerly winds will continue to decrease
throughout the afternoon, dropping below 10 knots by this evening.
Drainage winds will take over overnight remaining light and
following diurnal trends through Friday afternoon. By late afternoon
Friday, west to southwest winds will be possible at 8-12 knots which
will last into Friday evening. If these westerly winds do
materialize during the late afternoon a few gusts of 15-20 knots
will be possible.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Breezy, north winds today will continue on a downward
trend through this evening. Most areas are still seeing gusts around
20-25 knots with stronger winds down the Colorado River Valley
gusting up to around 35 knots. By tonight, winds will be around 10
knots or less falling back to diurnal trends. On Friday, lighter
winds are expected with northerly winds remaining down the Colorado
River Valley and other areas seeing potential for a westerly
component to the wind later in the day after 21z. Speeds of 10-15
knots are possible.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSIONS...TB3
AVIATION...Guillet

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