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000
FXUS65 KVEF 212056
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
157 PM PDT Mon Oct 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and seasonal weather is expected to continue through
the work week with periods of breezy north winds, particularly on
Thursday. Temperatures will climb through Wednesday before cooling
to near normal for the latter half of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next Monday.

Temperatures will top out near normal today while some gusty north
winds linger within the lower Colorado River Valley.

Longwave pattern across North American will be dominated by a trough
across most of the lower 48 with a ridge in place across the eastern
Pacific through Thursday. This will keep the southern Great
Basin/Mojave Desert under a dry northwest flow with the next
shortwave digging southward over the Rockies or High Plains. A north
wind will persist within the lower Colorado River Valley Tuesday and
Wednesday before being enhanced on Thursday. Temperatures will warm
above normal Tuesday and Wednesday before lowering Thursday
following the dry frontal passage.

Eastern Pacific ridge builds inland over California/Nevada Friday
and Saturday which will allow for a brief recovery in temperatures.

By early next week, more uncertainty exists due to differing
deterministic/ensemble solutions between the GFS and ECMWF. GFS/GEFS
indicate greatest height falls with evolving trough will be across
the northern High Plains. The ECMWF/Ensemble Mean bring the greatest
heights fall further south and west into the Great Basin. Therefore,
there is significant differences between the model temperatures by
next Monday. For now, the deeper/colder ECMWF looks mostly dry
except for some of our high mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light winds, favoring the east-northeast,
will continue before drainage southwest winds develop this evening.
A similar pattern is expected Tuesday, with winds below 8 knots.

For the rest of southern Nevada, southwest Arizona and southeast
California...Breezy winds between 10-20 knots will continue through
the afternoon at KBIH, KIFP, and KEED. Elsewhere, winds below 10
knots will continue. Generally, similar trends are anticipated
Tuesday, though winds are expected to be below 10 knots at KBIH. VFR
conditions expected over the next 24 hours.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pierce
AVIATION...Boothe

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