Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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270
FXUS65 KVEF 190434
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
934 PM PDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Moist and unstable air will remain over the region
through the end of the week providing fuel for afternoon
thunderstorms... especially over the mountains. Early next week, a
heatwave will be building with very hot temperatures expected.
&&


.UPDATE...Convection died off rapidly with the loss of daytime
heating this evening. The only storms left were along the far NE
edge of Mohave County south of Pipe Spring National Monument. These
storms were pushing SSW and may continue to do so for several more
hours. PoPs were trimmed considerably elsewhere. High-res models
still indicate a slight potential for some enhancement overnight in
an E-W band across the central portions of the CWA, slowly lifting
north through the morning. Have updated the forecast to reflect the
latest trends and short range guidance. We will continue to monitor
and update as needed. -Wolcott-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
225 PM PDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...through Saturday.

Thunderstorms in the forecast area have been confined to the Spring
Mountains and central Nevada early this afternoon. Elsewhere,
convection has been slow to develop in spite of Pwat values over 1.5
inches from Clark County southward and CAPE Values of 1500-2000
J/kg. Deep easterly steering flow behind the inverted trough moving
across southern California will bring storms that develop over the
Mogollon Rim into at least Mohave County...and possibly the Colorado
River Valley and southern Clark County this evening. Conditions are
less favorable for any storms that develop over Lincoln/northern
Mohave counties to head into northeast or central Clark County this
evening, but it cannot be completely ruled out as cold pools and
outflow boundaries begin to influence convection late this afternoon
and evening. So, will leave a slight chance of thunderstorms
mentioned in the forecast. The HRRR has been indicating the storms
will mainly be confined to Mohave County this evening.

The ridge centered over central California and the Great Basin is
forecast to migrate over the Four Corners Region Thursday and toward
the Texas Panhandle Friday and Saturday. This will lead to lower
temperatures across Inyo County and central Nevada...diminishing
heat impacts going into the weekend. Also, steering flow will become
southerly for any convection that gets going Thursday into the
weekend. This will shut down the potential for late evening storms
to move into southern Nevada from the northeast like we have seen a
few times over the past week. Moist and unstable air already in
place will not be flushing out, but we should see a slight decrease
in thunderstorm development from west to east the next few days over
southeast California and southern Nevada. Temperatures will hover
near normal.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday.

Strong ridge to our east progged to shift westward over Arizona
early next week. Lingering moisture combined with daytime heating
will still allow for thunderstorms to develop mainly along higher
terrain through the weekend. The westward propagation of the high
will increase temps and continue to keep thunderstorms chances
mainly focused over the higher terrain. In the coming days, likely
need to start considering an Excessive Heat Watch for Tuesday and
beyond.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Outside of convective influence, expect
generally light winds below 10 knots favoring an east-southeast
direction turning to the south-southwest this evening. Thunderstorms
will continue to be possible on the surrounding higher terrain, but
the probability thunderstorms and associated outflow affecting the
terminal is low. CIGs should remain above 10k feet.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Outside of thunderstorm influences, winds will follow
diurnal trends with speeds of 5-15 knots. CIGs at or above 10k feet
in general but CIGs may drop to 5-7 k feet in shower and storms.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms through this evening will
produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Although, most of the
thunderstorm activity should remain over the higher terrain, it is
possible storms will move into the valleys.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adair
LONG TERM...Pierce
AVIATION...Salmen


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