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000
FXUS65 KVEF 211739
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
939 AM PST Tue Jan 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Thicker clouds and showers will move out of the area
this morning, with batches of high clouds along with dry and warm
conditions expected to take over. Northerly breezes could begin
increasing down the Colorado River Valley again by Thursday, with
the potential for any unsettled weather for the rest of the region
holding off until next week.
&&

.UPDATE...A weak weather disturbance that brought light shower
activity to parts of the area overnight will move into central
Arizona by midday bringing an end to shower activity and eroding
low level cloud cover. Satellite loops show the low cloud erosion
well and also more high clouds pushing in from the west which
will be with us through the afternoon hours. Overall, winds today
will be mostly light other than some westerly breezes in the
western Mojave Desert this afternoon and temperatures are
expected to end up a few degrees above normal.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Morning low clouds have begun to scatter
out and will be replaced by BKN CIGs above 20kft through the rest of
the day. Winds are expected to stay generally light favoring a east-
northeast direction through the afternoon hours. Another brief
opportunity for clouds around 8kft early tomorrow morning but
confidence is low and even if so, shouldn`t prevent visual
approaches. Icing possibilities should be waning through the rest of
the day as well.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Morning low clouds should continue to dissipate through
the afternoon hours for all terminal, if not already. Light winds
are expected for most TAF sites and other than passing CIGs at or
above 12kft today, no other impacts are expected through the next 24
hours. Can`t rule out some lowered CIGs early tomorrow morning but
should be brief.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued at 249 AM PST Tue Jan 21 2020/

.DISCUSSION...through Monday.

No major impacts expected through the forecast period. Thicker
clouds and showers across southern and eastern portions of the
area this morning will quickly continue shifting eastward. So far,
amounts have been a little higher than forecast, but amounts will
still likely stay around or below a tenth of an inch.

Warming temperatures and dry conditions will be the rule for the
rest of the week as a ridge of high pressure builds in.

The fate of next week`s system looks a little more uncertain as
the next trough approaches the region by Monday. The GFS/GEFS has
shifted to a solution that looks more like the current system,
with most energy staying north and a southern split that may bring
some sprinkles to portions of the area again. The Euro solutions
are different, with the upper-level low diving across the region,
then deepening and closing off over New Mexico. In either case,
precipitation looks limited, with winds and mid/high clouds being
the main impact once again.

Looking ahead, not much to indicate the storm track shifting south
and bringing in more impactful systems. While the CFS model is
more in line with the Euro for next week, general ridging near
the west coast looks favored, with any troughs taking a more
inside track and remaining drier, with no help from any
teleconnections.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Salmen
AVIATION UPDATE...Boucher

DISCUSSION...Steele

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