Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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930
FXUS65 KVEF 250925
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
225 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoonal moisture will result in the return of
showers and thunderstorms today before conditions dry out over the
weekend. As conditions dry, temperatures will cool back toward
seasonal averages over the weekend. A ridge of high pressure returns
to the region next week, which will allow temperatures to increase
once again.
&&


.DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday.

Little change in the forecast noted with tonight`s update. Another
round of isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms expected
across the region today with convection favoring the higher terrain
before moving into valley locations. Best chances of precipitation
exist across the southern Great Basin and northwestern Arizona
with less coverage expected today than the previous few days. PWAT
of 1.00 to 1.50" and CAPE values of 1000 to 1250 J/kg will return
the threat of flash flooding to the Mojave Desert, particularly
underneath strong and/or training cells. Across the southern Great
Basin, PWAT values range from 0.25 to 0.75" with around 1800 J/kg
of DCAPE, increasing the risk of wind-related risks with strong
thunderstorms.

The Excessive Heat Warning was extended for the Las Vegas Valley,
the Colorado River Valley, southern Mohave County, and far
southeastern San Bernardino County due to persistent hot
temperatures coupled with increased humidity.

A closed low pushing into the Pacific Northwest will work to squash
the upper-level high over the Desert Southwest through the day
today. Over the weekend, a shortwave trough will push into central
California, which will further weaken the aforementioned area of
high pressure. This weekend will feel less oppressive as heights
fall and dry air funnels into the area with these trough passages.
Additionally, expect gusty afternoons each day over the weekend as
numerous shortwave trough axes push through the region.

Through the work week, the monsoonal high will recenter over the
Four Corners, which will allow moisture to advect into Arizona. PoPs
remain confined to Mohave County starting as early as Monday
afternoon. Temperatures will gradually return to 5 to 8 degrees
above seasonal averages.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Thunderstorms in the Mormon Mesa
corridor should end before sunrise this morning. At the terminal,
VFR conditions are expected today, with southwest winds early this
morning becoming easterly by late morning and shifting back to south
southwest in the afternoon, with gusts up to 20 knots possible.
Thunderstorm chances are expected in the Mormon Mesa and Peach
Springs corridors again this afternoon, with a very small (<20%)
chance of a storm at the terminal.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Thunderstorms over Lincoln, Clark, and Mohave counties
should end before sunrise this morning. New thunderstorms this
afternoon should be much less numerous than in previous days, with
the best chances extending from the Sierra crest eastward to Lincoln
County and then southward through eastern Clark County into Mohave
County. The main threats will be erratic, gusty winds near storms
and isolated low ceilings with terrain obscuration. Away from
storms, expect generally west to southwest winds, with the strongest
gusts of around 25 knots near and north of Barstow.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Morgan

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