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000
FXUS64 KHGX 160343
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
943 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

.UPDATE (Through Monday Night)...

Southerly wind flow today continued to bring in warm and moist air
across the region. Temperatures this afternoon reached the low 80s
areawide, setting three high temperature records for the day. A
record high temperature of 84 degrees was set at Houston
Intercontinental Airport, breaking the old record of 82 degrees
set in 1995. A record high temperature of 83 degrees was set at
Hobby Airport today, breaking the old record of 81 also set in
1995. Another record high temperature of 77 degrees was set at
Galveston, which ties the old record of 77 degrees set in 2012.
College station was a degree short of reaching the record high of
84 degrees. But all this lovely warm air will sadly come to an end
soon.

An upper level trough will move across the Rockies and into the
Central Plains tonight through Tuesday. A surface low pressure
will move southeastward from New Mexico into western Texas
overnight, as another surface low pressure meanders over the AR/LA
border. A cold front between the two lows will move across the
region, passing through the College Station region at around 9 AM
CST, the Houston region around noon CST, and the Galveston region
around 3 PM CST.

This time around, the environment looks to be more favorable for
shower and thunderstorm activity ahead and along the frontal
passage. Hi-Res Precip models show activity starting around
midnight CST, increasing overnight as the front moves closer to
the region, and peaking along the frontal boundary. Strongest
activity looks to develop across the eastern central and
southeastern regions of the CWA, which coincides with the areas
of higher CAPE and moisture content. Light rain could linger for a
few hours behind the front, but drier and colder air mass will
encompass the region Monday night suppressing further rain
development. Low temperatures Monday night will drop to the low to
mid 30s areas north of I-10 and to the mid to upper 30s along
areas south of I-10. High temperatures will only reach the 50s on
Tuesday. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019/

AVIATION...
A complicated and messy 24 hour TAF period on tap for the area.
Low level moisture will continue to stream into the region beneath
a stout cap. MVFR ceilings are expected to redevelop over the area
between 02-06z. The moist layer deepens after 06z and some
streamer showers will be possible between 06-12z with a mix of
MVFR/VFR ceilings. Northern TAF sites could fall to IFR at times
but at this time, feel the better chance for IFR ceilings will
come behind a cold front that will cross the area Monday morning.
Instability and jet dynamics not looking great but after
coordination with the ZHU CWSU, have added a VCTS for KIAH and
points southward. Skies will begin to clear from north to south by
mid/late afternoon. Winds will turn to the W in the morning and NW
by afternoon. Winds in the wake of the front will become gusty.

Lastly, conditions along the coast will favor some sea fog and how
that affects KGLS is uncertain. Will maintain MVFR conditions for
possible lower ceilings and restrictions to visibility. Once winds
become SW-W, the threat for fog will end and this is fcst to occur
between 12-15z Monday. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      62  62  34  53  30 /  40  50   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              70  75  37  54  34 /  50  70  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            66  71  44  54  42 /  40  80  20   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 9 AM CST Tuesday for
     the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Monday afternoon for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
     Matagorda Bay.

     Gale Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...24
Aviation/Marine...43