Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 260528

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1128 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...

Overall TAFs look on track with some minor adjustments to account
for ongoing conditions. There are currently a mix of VFR/MVFR
conditions and ceilings should continue to decrease. AMDAR
soundings show the boundary layer saturating and supporting shower
activity seen on radar. Overall we expect coverage to increase
through 12Z. We will need to monitor for TS as HRRR has
consistently produced stronger convection from 10Z to 14Z in the
morning. Ceilings during this time will also be decreasing into
IFR levels and possibly LIFR. That remains to be seen but not out
of the question to see some amendments to LIFR. Ceilings improve
in the afternoon as the upper level system exits the area.
Ceilings/visibility will be dicey again tomorrow night.



.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 547 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020/...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tomorrow]...

Persistent moderate southeast flow in the wake of a departing
surface high has allowed for an influx of Gulf moisture across SE
Texas today ahead of an advancing upper trough and associated weak
coastal low. This system looks to bring widespread rain showers
with the potential for isolated thunderstorms beginning after
sunset tonight and lasting into the afternoon hours tomorrow.
Synoptic scale guidance (i.e. GFS, ECMWF, NAM) remains in good
agreement that the highest rainfall amounts associated with this
system will remain offshore. As a result, have remained fairly
confident that most inland areas will receive around 0.5 to 1" of
total rainfall.

Some mesoscale guidance sources such as the TTU-WRF and HRRR
continue to suggest the potential for the development of a band of
heavier rainfall reaching inland areas overnight tonight. Should
this scenario materialize, some localized rainfall totals up to 3"
in and around Galveston Bay are possible. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms diminish by Sunday afternoon as the coastal low
pushes further eastward across the Gulf. This should be
accompanied by clearer skies heading into tomorrow afternoon and
evening, as well as a shift to lighter northwest winds.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The next in a series of storm systems still looks to bring our area
the next batch of showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday night
through Tuesday evening. After this system moves off to the east,
expect a quiet/dry Wednesday. Another system brings increasing
rain chances back to our area during a Thursday-Friday time period.
Next weekend is still looking to be dry.

For temperatures, no lows near of below freezing are expected (most
areas will be in the 40s and 50s) while highs will be in the 60s and
70s. 42


Moderate southeast winds continue this evening as a storm system
approaches from the west. With winds reaching 15 to 20 knots in
the nearshore waters and 20 to 25 knots in the offshore waters,
have posted caution flags and a Small Craft advisory respectively
for these areas through 3AM. As the system approaches our area
this evening, look for widespread rain with isolated thunderstorms
to develop across the coastal waters. As this system departs late
on Sunday, a lighter offshore wind will develop and seas will
diminish. Surface high pressure behind the departing system
pushes eastward on Monday. Winds will become east to southeast by
Tuesday as the next storm system and associated rains moves
across the area.




College Station (CLL)  68  56  71  45  71 /  10   0   0  20  50
Houston (IAH)          66  58  71  50  70 /  60   0   0  10  50
Galveston (GLS)        65  62  68  56  65 /  70   0   0   0  40



     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Sunday for the following
     zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
     from 20 to 60 NM.



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