Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 191857

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
157 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018


Unseasonably warm conditions will be the story today and tomorrow,
with high temperatures in the mid 90s and getting very close to
record territory. The upper high as well as the surface high
continue to move slowly eastward, and will be directly over the
area tomorrow morning. This looks to make tomorrow the warmest day
of the week, with the high in Nashville at 96 with the current
forecast. The record is 97, and quite a few models suggested 97 as
the high for Nashville tomorrow, so it may be likely that we match
or even exceed the record high for tomorrow. Tonight, similar
conditions are in place as the past few days, so with plenty of
low level moisture, light winds, and clear skies, have mention of
fog across the area overnight until around sunrise.

Dry conditions will come to an end on Friday as the upper high
moves eastward and a Midwest trough begins to drag a cold front
through the MS River Valley. This will allow for plenty of lift
and moisture to support showers and thunderstorms mainly during
the daytime hours, but models do show some isolated to scattered
precip during the overnight hours into Saturday as well. As the
trough continues through the Great Lakes region, the southern
extent of the cold front looks to stall near the Ohio River, which
will keep the mid state in the warm sector for continued chances
for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Both the GFS and ECMWF
develop a weak upper shortwave trough near the Arklatex region,
and a weak warm front/stationary boundary that drapes across
TN/Southern KY. The front will slowly move northward Saturday
night and Sunday as the shortwave follows behind. This looks to
have the precip chances over much of the mid state on Saturday
during the day, push northward slightly Saturday night, and
possibly re-develop over the mid state during the day Sunday as
the shortwave passes overhead. There is still a little
disagreement on Sunday, so chances could be a bit less Sunday
compared to Saturday, but either way it looks like the rain
chances will hold for the weekend.

As the shortwave phases with a larger Plains/Midwest trough,
southwest flow will settle in aloft over the area. This will keep
precip chances in for every day next week. By Wednesday, the first
strong trough of the fall season shows up on the GFS while the
ECMWF lags about 12 hours behind. On Thursday and Friday, the
trough will swing across the Midwest and Great Lakes region, and
drag a strong cold front across the area. This may give us our
first sample of fall as both long term models have the front
moving through the mid state Friday/Saturday. Consensus right now
has highs next Friday and Saturday in the low 70s if the front
remains this strong. Models are still quite a ways out from that
time, so don`t put too much weight into the solutions just yet,
but hopefully they`re hinting that a slight cool down to more
seasonable temperatures is on the way next weekend.



VFR conditions are expected the rest of today at airports with
scattered cumulus and light and variable winds. Isolated showers
are anticipated to pop up this afternoon but activity will be to
sparse to include a VCSH mention in TAFs. Overnight, patchy fog
will bring MVFR visibility to CKV/MQY/CSV, but all terminals will
return to VFR around 13Z with light south winds.





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