Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 181103

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
603 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018




The upper high over the region remains quite strong today before
starting to break down tomorrow and Wednesday. The question today
is how hot temperatures will get before thunderstorms develop.
Short term models show convection developing mid to late morning,
and based upon outflow cooling temperatures yesterday afternoon,
thunderstorm timing will have a big impact on high temperatures.
Model consensus has highs in the low 90s, but bumped temps up a
bit to the mid 90s for some areas to be right in the middle of
yesterday`s highs and the cooler model consensus. Should showers
and thunderstorms develop by mid to late morning, highs look to be
in the upper 80s to low 90s, and if they hold off until the
afternoon, highs should have no problem getting to the mid 90s
with the same airmass and setup as the weekend. Also, with similar
conditions still in place, plenty of MUCAPE exists to again have
some thunderstorms produce hail and gusty winds during the
afternoon hours before dissipating in the late afternoon and evening.

Tuesday and Wednesday will see the ridge and upper high break down
and slide southward, allowing for the more zonal and active upper
flow pattern to also dive south. This will allow for shortwave
trough activity to help out diurnal convection, and kept in
showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon hours for
the rest of the work week. Best chances remain on Thursday and
Friday as both the GFS and ECMWF have strong upper closed lows
over the Central Plains into the Midwest placing the mid state in
a more favorable location for thunderstorm development during the
day. Remnants of that strong upper low will still be felt on
Saturday with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday is where the long term models really start to diverge, but
sticking with persistence and keeping in mention of precip during
the afternoon. The GFS develops a stronger ridge for Monday while
the ECMWF has more of a zonal flow pattern. If the GFS pans out,
that strong ridge will bring in 850 mb temps approaching 23C,
which is about 3C to 4C warmer than we saw the past weekend, and
that could mean high temps in the upper 90s. The ECMWF is cooler,
but still should have highs in the upper 80s/low 90s with chances
for convection during the afternoon on Monday. It will be
interesting to see how models converge on one solution, and
hopefully its the cooler one!



VFR. Similar conditions expected today as past few days with
cumulus developing later this morning and VCTS at all airports in
the afternoon. All showers and storms anticipated to dissipate by
01Z with just cirrus the remainder of the night. Light southwest
to west winds are expected through the TAF period.





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