Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 251049
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
549 AM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR to MVFR conditions will persist in much of the forecast areas
through mid morning, primarily due to low ceilings. A few spots
could also see vsybs in the 1-3sm range. Conditions should quickly
improve to VFR after 15z with south winds increasing ahead of a
cold front. The expected front timing remains about the same,
reaching KBVO a bit before 00z and finally reaching KFSM about
09z. Scattered thunderstorms expected along and behind the front
with NE OK and NW AR terminals seeing highest probability. Period
of MVFR ceilings possible later tonight with north winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 406 AM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Morning low clouds and patchy fog are expected to burn off quicker
today allowing temperatures to warm well into the 80s ahead of a
cold front that will enter northeast Oklahoma late this afternoon.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop near and
north of the front as it sweeps across the area.

A mid level shortwave will move across the area Wednesday, which
will maintain considerable cloudiness and a chance of showers,
mainly across the southern part of the forecast area. Much drier
low level air should limit the northern extent of any measurable
rainfall Wednesday.

A warming trend will begin Thursday and continue Friday, but
forecast uncertainty increases markedly by Friday night and
Saturday. A shallow cold airmass will try to sag south into our
area, and with the lower sun angle, we are getting to the time of
year where these shallow fronts tend to progress farther south
and be tougher to displace than most synoptic scale models would
suggest. As such, we will trend this forecast towards the more
aggressive ECMWF, which also has some support from the UKMET. This
results in another cooldown Friday night and Saturday, especially
for the northern part of our forecast area. Low rain chances will
also be added for Friday night into early Saturday.

The cool air should erode Sunday into early next week, with a warm
and humid airmass returning. While rain chances through this
period will not be zero, they appear too low to include in the
forecast at this time.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  55  67  51 /  10  40  10  10
FSM   86  63  71  57 /  10  40  20  20
MLC   86  60  68  55 /   0  30  20  20
BVO   85  52  68  46 /  20  60  10   0
FYV   81  55  66  50 /  10  50  10  10
BYV   82  55  67  50 /  10  40  10  10
MKO   86  58  68  53 /   0  40  20  10
MIO   83  52  68  48 /  20  60  10   0
F10   86  57  65  53 /   0  40  30  10
HHW   87  64  73  58 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....14


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