Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 211043
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
543 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Light fog and/or low ceilings may occur for a short period of
time early in the forecast period at KBVO, KFYV and KRVS.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the day across
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Conditions will begin
to worsen tonight as moisture from Tropical Storm Beta moves
into the area. Scattered showers and isolated storms along
with MVFR to IFR ceilings become more common across the area
later tonight.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 246 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Main forecast concern will be PoPs and rainfall amounts over the
next 24-48 hours.

Tropical Storm Beta currently off the central TX coastline will
move inland late today, with a plume of 2"+ PWATs streaming into
southeast OK by tonight. Best chances today will likely be limited
to southeast OK this afternoon, with increasing PoPs lifting north
through the forecast area tonight into Tuesday.

Most of southeast OK into western AR will remain in the right
entrance region of the upper jet, suggesting a prolonged period of
broad lift tonight through Tuesday night. Rainfall rates may not
be overly excessive given the low instability, but the high PWAT
airmass combined with the long duration lift should result in a
general 1-3 inch rainfall event across southeast OK into western
AR, with local amounts around 4-5 inches possible. The heavier
rainfall is expected to shift mostly east of the region by
Wednesday as the broad upper low lifts east/northeast.

Drier/milder weather expected for the end of the week, with the
possibility of a stronger cold front late in the weekend or early
next week. Stuck with the NBM temps which shows a modest cooldown
for Sunday/Monday along with low end rain chances.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....10



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