Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 201036
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
536 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR to VFR conditions are expected at the area TAF sites as
scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to impact most
sites this Afternoon and evening.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 311 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Convective line, currently moving through south-central Kansas/
north-central Oklahoma, continues to weaken early this morning as
storms push into a more stable air-mass. Outflow boundary will likely
move into northeast Oklahoma this morning and stall, becoming the
focus for additional thunderstorm development this afternoon. A
few of these storms could produce marginally severe wind/hail in
the stronger cells this afternoon/evening. In addition, scattered
showers/thunderstorms will also likely develop across southeast
Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas with surface heating and as deeper
tropical moisture surges north.

Models remain consistent with developing stacked upper low over
eastern Nebraska tonight, moving southeast into NW MO during the
day Thursday. This will allow for a significantly drier air-mass
to filter into the region Thursday into early Friday, on backside
of weakening system, with front stalling near or just south of
the Red river. Boundary is expected to begin lifting back north
Friday afternoon.

Storms are expected to develop over the High Plains Friday
afternoon as upslope flow strengthens in response to approaching
upper level speed max. These storms will likely form into a strong
to severe MCS, potentially impacting portions of eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas late Friday night into Saturday morning.
Still some uncertainty regarding exact track of system and any
storms that develop near retreating boundary Friday afternoon/evening
could impact exactly where greatest instability axis sets up.
Regardless, it appears precipitation will be likely and storms
could linger or redevelop during the day Saturday as strong
northwest flow aloft persists.

Slow warming trend forecast for the early part of next week as
another upper low drifts eastward into the Central Plains. Low
precip chances will continue, mainly across far northeast Oklahoma
/northwest Arkansas.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....10


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