Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
FXUS63 KOAX 131118

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
618 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Dry and warmer is the main weather story the next few days.

Surface high pressure was ridging south from the Northern Plains
toward the Mid Missouri River Valley region this morning, and will
continue to do so through this afternoon. As the high slides off to
the east later tonight and Wednesday, a return to south then
southwest low level flow will signal a significant warmup for the
middle of the week.

Lots of sunshine this afternoon should help to offset limited mixing
regime under surface ridging, but highs will remain below normal for
the middle part of March. That changes on Wednesday as southwest
winds kick in early and continue through the afternoon, adding an
element of compressional warming. We will still see plenty of
sunshine, and 850 temps gain about 8C from this afternoon through
Wednesday afternoon. Thus highs approaching 20 degrees warmer than
this afternoon are not out of the question.

Meanwhile an upper low currently in the Eastern Pacific will swing a
trough into the Pacific Northwest by Wednesday afternoon. A strong
shortwave rotating east then northeast around the base of the
trough will promote surface cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado
during the day Thursday. Besides increasing mid and high clouds in
diffluent flow ahead of shortwave, main impact for our area on
Thursday will be winds turning to an easterly direction north of
a strengthening baroclinic zone across Kansas. This flow and some
cloud cover should keep highs 5 to 10 degrees cooler Thursday

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Precipitation chances return to the forecast much of the longer term
period, with Saturday the most-likely dry day Friday through

Mid level shortwave is forecast to deepen into a closed low as it
slides east into the Plains Thursday night through Friday night.
Isentropic upglide over Kansas frontal boundary will likely lead to
a good chance for rain Thursday night as moisture transport into
eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa continues. Some weak instability
is noted in model output in southeast Nebraska, so some isolated
thunderstorms are possible there Thursday night. Also, current
indications suggest surface temps may slip below freezing for a time
in northeast Nebraska late Thursday night and Friday morning,
resulting in a period of potential freezing rain. Upper low is
forecast to drift over our area Friday night and sufficiently
cool mid and lower atmosphere for a change to snow later Friday

Upper low should be moving east on Saturday allowing a respite in
precipitation for a day or so. However another wave rotating through
the Plains will bring precipitation chances back to our area,
especially Sunday night and Monday. And again, temperature profiles
support rain initially, but a change to snow is possible as
atmposphere cools later Sunday night and Monday morning.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Expect VFR conditions through the period with just some variable
high level cloudiness. Winds will be from the north during the
daytime, then become light and variable this evening.




LONG TERM...Dergan
AVIATION...Miller is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.