Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 232015
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
315 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Precipitation chances starting late tonight and continuing through
Wednesday, with some small chance of a rain/snow mix in northeast
Nebraska late Tuesday night, and temperatures through the period
are the main forecast concerns.

Cumulus clouds that developed today from parts of KS into central
and parts of northeast NE should dissipate this evening. Clouds
will be increasing later tonight, especially for about the
northwest half of the forecast area. Water vapor satellite
imagery early this afternoon showed a closed low near Yellowstone
NP with precipitation across parts of WY and MT. Surface low and
an associated cold front will track southeast tonight and Tuesday.
Expect a weakening low pressure center at the surface to be over
northwest MO by Tuesday evening. Tonight our winds will mainly
be light from the east or northeast, then shifting to north or
northwest with passage of that cold front Tuesday.

Will have the chance of showers increasing into the likely
category across much of northeast NE Tuesday afternoon and evening
but then highest chances shift into southeast NE after that. There
is not much for instability, so no mention of thunder. There are
some signals that a very minor rain/snow mix may occur late
Tuesday night west of a line from Wayne to Albion but no snow
accumulation is expected. Total rain amounts should be highest
mainly west of a line from Wayne to Beatrice, with 0.25 to 0.50
possible. Amounts east of that line, less than a quarter of an
inch and maybe less than 0.10 in IA.

A fast moving system will track through the area Thursday, with a
chance of showers. Instability also looks weak with this system,
but later forecasts may need to add a slight chance of thunder
for parts of southeast NE and southwest IA late Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

At the start of this period, there will be a 500 mb ridge over the
Rockies and a closed low off the west coast. The GFS and ECMWF are
in decent agreement with the large scale pattern, but the GFS has
the low just a bit farther east. With time, differences increase,
so confidence on forecast details decreases. The pattern from
Friday through Monday should trend generally warmer than what we
will see through mid week. High temperatures should moderate
into the 70s, with lows also warming from the 40s to the lower and
mid 50s. Rain chances look fairly low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

High pressure will prevail over the area in advance of an
approaching cold front and upper trough. VFR conditions are
expected through the period with light winds.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Fobert



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