Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 180452
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1152 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Fairly pleasant conditions continued across the forecast area today.
Temperatures climbed into the lower to mid 80s this afternoon,
while morning convection fizzled over central Nebraska as it
struggled to move east.

An upper level ridge will remain over the central CONUS as a low
pressure system shifts east out of northern Missouri tonight.
Another round of convection will pop up across the western half of
the state this evening and tonight in response to a shortwave
riding along the back of the ridge. However, precipitation will
likely diminish as the wave approaches eastern Nebraska Friday
morning. A few lingering showers and thunderstorms could bring a
glancing blow to the western half of the CWA, but widespread
coverage is not expected. Diurnally driven convection will ramp up
again Friday evening as a low pressure system follows the ridge
through eastern Colorado. Increased support from the low level jet
should allow showers and thunderstorms to push into eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa Friday night and Saturday morning.

A southwest to northeast oriented frontal boundary will set up
across northeast Nebraska Saturday morning and drift east/southeast
through the day, providing a focus for continued convection. A few
storms could be strong to severe, especially across southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa Saturday afternoon and evening.  With
highs in the lower 80s and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, 2500-
4000 J/kg of potential energy will be available, in addition to
steep lapse rates and up to 40kts of bulk shear. Given these
conditions, large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado
could all be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Showers and storms will likely linger into Sunday morning,
especially across the northern half of the forecast area, as the low
pressure system lifts northeast through Iowa.

High temperatures will remain in the 70s and lower 80s through much
of next week. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be
possible through the week, due to a frontal boundary stalling
across the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Area of showers and thunderstorms will drift east into eastern
Nebraska overnight, reaching KOFK by mid Friday morning, and KOMA
and KLNK around 18Z. The greatest chance for thunderstorms will be
over northeast Nebraska. However VFR conditions are expected
through the TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...Dergan



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