Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 171751
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1251 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Next storm system to impact the area will be moving out of the
northern Rockies and onto the western high plains today. No
weather ahead of this system today other than a bit warmer
temperatures for the area.

Tonight the models are fairly close in tracking the surface low
from western Kansas into north central Missouri while the upper
trough swings to the northeast across the mid Missouri Valley and
becomes negatively tilted over the area by Wednesday morning.
Strong dynamics will be associated with this system and although
moisture will be limited initially it does increase quickly after
06Z. Chance of thunderstorms for southern parts of the area look
to be limited until later in the evening with a strong cap
indicated in forecast soundings prior to that time. A few
elevated storms are possible during the evening in the south with
rain changing to freezing rain and snow in the far north after
06z. With the fast movement of the storm system the freezing rain
is expected to result in limited icing before changing over to
snow there in the far north. Snow accumulations of one to two
inches are expected by Wednesday morning with up to an additional
inch possible during Wednesday morning. In the south, pockets of
moderate to heavy rain will be possible Tuesday night from
southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa. Gusty northwest winds will
also move into the area behind the system Wednesday morning as
the snow begins to move east of the area and continue through the
afternoon. Despite the snow and northwest winds, temperatures are
forecast to climb toward 40 degrees in the north Wednesday
afternoon.

Winds diminish Wednesday night with skies becoming partly cloudy
as the system continues to rapidly eastward. Mostly sunny and
warmer conditions are expected Thursday as upper riding moves over
the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Another strong weather system is forecast to move out of the
southern Rockies and across the southern plains Friday night
through Sunday. This will bring a chance of rain to the area
during this time with the more active weather expected to stay
south of Nebraska and Iowa. Temperatures will be closer to normal
for this time of year during this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

VFR conditions through the day at all TAF sites. Easterly winds at
10 to 15 knots could gust up to 20 knots through sunset. Rain
chances begin around 03z with MVFR conditions moving in. Rain
showers continue overnight with OFK mixing then changing to snow
by 08z. IFR conditions likely at OFK after 06z with the potential
that LNK and OMA may experience IFR conditions as well. Low clouds
and precipitation move out after 15z at all sites.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Dusselier



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