Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 140447
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1147 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...

The overall forecast is playing about as expected, with blizzard
conditions developing in northeast NE later tonight. Meanwhile,
severe storms have developed in western IA this afternoon, just
north of a warm front that extends from a surface low that
currently exists between Lincoln and Omaha. Meanwhile severe storms
firing along the dry line in eastern KS will move into southeast
NE within the next 45 minutes. A tornado watch remains in effect
for western IA and extreme southeast NE until 02z.

Regarding headlines, we did expand the blizzard warning a little
further east and south, to include areas northwest of a line from
Seward to Columbus to Thurston, NE. Further east, either winter
storm warnings or winter weather advisories were issued where
winds may lower and snowfall amounts may be lighter. Headlines
remain in effect until 7 pm Saturday. At that time, snow amounts
and winds will winding down. We may have to eventually extend some
of these winter headlines a little further into Saturday evening.
A few snow showers could linger across western IA Sunday morning,
but essentially the event is over by that time.

Regarding snowfall amounts, they did trend up just slightly,
looking for 8 to 15 inches in northeast NE, transitioning to 1
to 2 inches along I80, and an inch or less in extreme southeast NE
and southwest IA. With the strong winds gusting to 45 mph or
higher for much of the area, getting an accurate measurement may
become quite difficult. And along I80, amounts may tend to melt on
treated roads. There could be a light glazing with wet untreated roads
as temps drop below freezing, but overall not expecting
significant icing with this system.

Regarding visibility, where the blizzard warning is in effect, we
are expecting widespread visibility 1/4 or less with whiteout
conditions, especially in open areas. This will create significant
blowing and drifting snow. Travel may become impossible in parts
of central through northeast NE. Reports from central NE suggest
this is already occurring, and it should move eastward overnight.
Opted to expand the blizzard warning southward to include I80
eastward up to Seward.

Dry weather on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Given the immediate short term weather concerns, did not have a
lot of time to spend on this period. Model blends suggest another
chance of mostly rain Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday, and
another chance of rain next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

A vigorous deep-layer cyclone will slowly track through southeast
NE early Saturday morning and into northwest MO by Saturday
evening. Mosaic radar data as of 0430z indicate the primary
deformation band situated over central into western NE with light
showery precipitation noted across portions of northeast NE.
Expect the deformation band to steadily shift southeast in tandem
with the parent synoptic system. KOFK is already indicating IFR
conditions due to low clouds and snow with prevailing LIFR
ceilings and visibilities becoming more probable after 12z
Saturday. Precipitation should begin in earnest at KOMA and KLNK
toward 12z Saturday, likely in the form of rain initially. With
time the rain could mix with sleet before changing over to snow by
Saturday afternoon. Here too, prevailing IFR to LIFR conditions
can be expected with the onset of precipitation. Winds will
steadily increase from the north-northeast with the passage of the
surface low to the southeast of the area.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
     NEZ045-052-053-066-067-078-088-089.

     Blizzard Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for NEZ015-033-
     043-050-065.

     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for NEZ034-
     044-051.

     Blizzard Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for NEZ018-032-042.

     Blizzard Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for NEZ011-012-016-017-
     030-031.

IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
     IAZ055-056.

     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Mead



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